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Who wins & why? Tips & predictions for Round 9, 2026
SEN • May 7th, 2026 1:33 pm
Round 9 is here as we enter a big weekend of footy.
Things begin with a huge top four clash out west on Thursday as the Dockers host the Hawks.
Friday sees another double-header with the Lions and Blues facing off as well as the Power and Dogs.
Saturday's highlight is the night-time fixture between the Cats and Pies at the 'G. The less said about Sunday the better at this stage…
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
FREMANTLE v HAWTHORN
Thursday - 8:10pm AEST - Optus Stadium
After years of falling short, the Dockers finally appear ready to challenge for the premiership. A tough loss to Geelong in Round 1 wasn’t the ideal start to the season, yet it would prove their only loss to date, claiming seven straight victories to sit pretty in second place. Behind the elite forward presence of Josh Treacy and their talented midfield and defensive units, Fremantle look the complete package. They enter tonight off the back of a big win over the Bulldogs.
Much like the Dockers, Hawthorn’s only defeat for the season came at the first time of asking, falling short against the Giants in Opening Round before a flawless run of six straight wins. That record came to a sudden halt last week when a clinical Collingwood side held the Hawks to a draw despite nearly every statistical measure weighing in favour of the brown and gold. Looking to bounce back, the Hawks enter tonight without forward Calsher Dear, while star midfielder Will Day edges closer to his season debut.
A battle of the titans, Fremantle and Hawthorn go head-to-head in what is sure to be a true top four shaper. Two sides in true premiership contending form, this 2013 Grand Final rematch has all the makings of a brilliant game of football. For the Dockers, home ground advantage will play a huge role in a contest so tightly contested, with a near-perfect run in and a lack of serious injuries allowing a full-strength side to face the music. As for the Hawks, a draw against the Pies will have lit a fire inside, determined to return to winning ways after a near perfect start. This one will be excruciatingly close, but given home ground advantage, we think Freo might just have the edge.
Prediction: Fremantle by 7 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
BRISBANE v CARLTON
*Friday - 7:30pm AEST - Gabba
Chris Fagan’s Lions were clinical in beating Essendon by 64 points. They kicked 22.11.(143) from 65 inside 50 entries which is pretty sharp going. Hugh McCluggage is building back to top form, Darcy Wilmot is a ball of energy, Logan Morris continues to kick goals and Zac Bailey is certainly backing up last year’s All-Australian campaign. They had whiteboard-gate to deal with in the aftermath but the three-peat chasing Brissie won’t be too bothered by that small distraction.
It was yet another horror second-half display from the Blues against St Kilda last weekend. They led by 12 points at half-time only to concede 11 goals and kick just two in the second half, losing to the Saints by 39 points. They Blues have scored only 272 points and conceded a massive 515 points – a differential of -243 – after the main break in 2026. Their fadeouts have become a terminal issue under Michael Voss.
Brisbane has won seven of the past eight meetings with Carlton, the only recent miss being the one-point loss at the Gabba in early 2024. The Lions have the ability to pile on big scores, kicking 100 or more six times this year, and averaging 107 points per game. The Blues, on the other hand, can’t reach the ton and can barely get past the 80s, averaging just 79 points. It’s impossible to tip the Blues off the back of a six-game losing streak, especially against the Lions at home.
Prediction: Brisbane by 28 points.
Andrew Slevison
PORT ADELAIDE v WESTERN BULLDOGS
Friday - 8:10pm AEST - Adelaide Oval
It'd be unthinkable to give Port a chance in this one if it was a month ago… but things have changed considerably in recent games.
Port Adelaide were branded as a bottom four side to start the year, and while they enter this round at 3-5, they have looked much better than that in the past month.
While they’ve lost three of their last four, those games have come against the Saints, Hawks, Cats and Crows. Their biggest loss in that period has been 14 points, and they easily could have beaten both Hawthorn and Adelaide.
These recent performances will fill them with huge confidence against a struggling Bulldogs side.
After starting the season unblemished through four games, the Dogs have fallen off a cliff to sit 4-4 through 8. Injury has played a massive role in this collapse, and while they’re now getting some cavalry back, they’re still without some big names.
The depth hasn’t proven to be able to mix it with some of the league’s best teams, but up against a Port Adelaide side that is also top heavy, that cannot be an excuse in this trip to Adelaide.
Port are more than a puncher’s chance here at home. Due to the Bulldogs’ injuries, both sides are carried by their elite stars. Most of those big names are in the middle of the ground, and that’s where the game will be won and lost.
While Port have won four of their last five head-to-head, the Dogs ran away 90-point victors last time. This one shouldn’t be close to a blowout, but the Bulldogs simply must win here if they want to stay alive as contenders in 2026.
Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 12 points.
Lachlan Geleit
NORTH MELBOURNE v SYDNEY
Saturday - 1:5pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
The North Melbourne midfield mix will look better with the addition of George Wardlaw, returning from illness. The Kangaroos will need Wardlaw’s grit and for some of the other mids to come along with him to curb the influence of the ever-firing Brisbane core.
Four wins looks good and a gallant three quarters against Geelong in Geelong doesn’t go unnoticed, but they need a scalp to be taken seriously as a finals/wildcard threat and boy, would this be a huge scalp.
Sydney have won four of their last five at Marvel Stadium and have a 71% win rate (12-5) at the venue over the last five seasons. The Swans have won their last 10 clashes with North Melbourne and something would have to go wrong to end the second longest win streak in the competition currently.
Brodie Grundy continues his All-Australian-level form and will have another strong test in Tristan Xerri. With a percentage of 165.5, I can’t see much damage being caused to that if they show up at the level we have come to expect from the Swans.
There is a class and experience gap evident in this one. Attention will now have to be paid to Malcolm Rosas on top of the powerhouses of Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and Nick Blakey who will also need to be nullified if the Shinboners have any chance here.
For some more perspective of the hold Sydney have had on North Melbourne; the last time the Swans left Marvel Stadium (or should we say the Telstra Dome) with a loss against the Roos was in 2007. It will take one hell of an upset to break this almost 20-year hoodoo and it seems a bridge too far.
Prediction: Sydney by 41 points.
Ethan Clark
GWS GIANTS v ESSENDON
Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - ENGIE Stadium
With the ball akin to a bar of soap at Carrara, the Giants struggled to maintain possession and kick straight against the Suns, resulting in their first defeat in the Expansion Cup since 2021. Sitting 14th with a 3-5 record, GWS has struggled to find consistent form in the early stages of the season, although they usually find their form in the second half of the season. The Giants’ midfield depth will once again be tested with wingman Ryan Angwin currently in concussion protocols, and Xavier O’Halloran sidelined with a syndesmosis injury from Sunday’s 20-point loss.
Following ‘Whiteboard-gate’, which highlighted the side’s many weaknesses, Essendon will be keen to wipe those concerns as best they can. Once again, the Bombers were outclassed by their opponents, with the Brisbane Lions cruising to a 64-point win, resulting in the club’s seventh defeat. Now, only percentage separates them from sitting in last place. But as their win against Melbourne and their valiant four-quarter performance against the Suns showed, Brad Scott’s men are capable of throwing a spanner into the works.
In recent history, the Giants have dominated this matchup, having won six of the last eight games against the red and black. And with Essendon’s defensive struggles this season putting them 17th for points conceded, it’s hard to see how the Bombers can contain the Giants' forward line, even if Jesse Hogan doesn’t feature following his hip pointer injury.
Prediction: GWS by 32 points
Nicholas Quinlan
GOLD COAST v ST KILDA
Saturday - 7:10pm AEST - TIO Stadium
This is secretly a high-stakes matchup for both teams in Darwin.
Gold Coast are heading into this game with a record of five wins and three losses, while St Kilda hold a record of four wins and four losses. Even though a win, loss or draw won’t make or break finals for either team, it will certainly show where they rank among the top end of the competition.
Many had Gold Coast as their flag fancies heading into the 2026 season, but they haven’t quite lived up to those expectations. The Suns started the season excellently with three victories, all with margins above 56-points, but it hasn’t been smooth sailing since then. With losses coming to Melbourne, Sydney and Hawthorn, and wins coming by nine points against Essendon and 20 points against the Giants, the Suns have turned into quite an unpredictable team.
St Kilda, however, are starting to build some nice form delivering a 101-point shellacking to West Coast and a 39-point smashing over Carlton in their two recent games, proving that their big-money off-season moves are starting to gel together. While those two victories weren’t against much, it’s promising signs for the Saints moving forward.
There are some interesting stat lines to look out for heading into this game, particularly looking at St Kilda’s fast starts and Gold Coast’s strong Darwin record. St Kilda have started their first quarters on fire this season, winning the first term in each of their past seven games, while Gold Coast have built a fortress at TIO Stadium, winning each of their last eight games at the Darwin venue. These stats suggest that St Kilda will explode early against the Suns but will be overrun throughout the game.
While history tends to repeat itself, St Kilda is a real crack at winning this game. Gold Coast’s recent run of unpredictability mean that the door is wide open for the Saints to steal this game from the Suns. However, expect class to prevail here. Gold Coast are still a step ahead of St Kilda, and they haven’t lost a game at TIO since 2022.
Prediction: Gold Coast by 19 points.
GEELONG v COLLINGWOOD
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - MCG
Collingwood finds itself sitting just inside the eight on the back of last week’s draw with Hawthorn. Craig McRae’s Magpies batted above at the MCG when many thought they’d go under due to their personnel woes with a few key players missing.
They almost nabbed a memorable win but a draw will have to do and it still has them right in among the pack.
Geelong is half a game ahead after taking care of North Melbourne by 49 points on the back of their shock loss to Port Adelaide. Chris Scott’s Cats continue to keep themselves relevant just as people start to doubt them.
They could be buoyed by the possible return of prime ball user Gryan Miers while defender Jack Henry will also face a fitness test.
The Pies will get record-equaller Scott Pendlebury back, plus Jeremy Howe and Beau McCreery, while Darcy Cameron has been passed fit to play. Harry Perryman goes out with a hamstring.
Aside from a pair of 2023 Pies wins, when Collingwood won the flag, it’s been a positive fixture for the Cats who’ve won six of the last eight meetings between the two clubs.
We’re just getting the feeling that the Cats have a few more tricks in attack, especially if Jeremy Cameron is on song. They’ve scored 110 or more on four occasions and have another 90-plus game to their name in 2026.
The Pies will put themselves in the contest with their defensive expertise and even though they’ve unlocked some scoring power the past three weeks - with scores of 88, 137 and 93 - the Cats should win narrowly… but with not much confidence.
Prediction: Geelong by 10 points.
Andrew Slevison
MELBOURNE v WEST COAST
Sunday - 1:10pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
It’s fair to say that the early season optimism surrounding the Eagles has all but vanished following a disappointing loss to a heavily undermanned Richmond in front of their fans at home. It won’t get any easier for West Coast as they now must make the trip across the country to face a high-scoring and dynamic Melbourne side that will host a rare Marvel Stadium home game.
The Demons will be without Brody Mihocek who sustained a moderate grade hamstring tear in the first quarter of Melbourne’s loss to Sydney last week. It led to Steven King having to make some changes on the run with Max Gawn spending more time up forward to be a key presence.
However, the unsung hero Max Heath has been more than serviceable in the ruck and provided a strong option up forward which will likely occur again this week.
A big question will be whether the Eagles can expose Melbourne’s defence who have conceded 809 points in the 8 rounds so far which is the 5th highest in the competition. Jake Waterman looms as the key to whether the Eagles can put a score on the board that will challenge Melbourne. Malcolm Rosas Jr was able to kick 7 goals last week for the Swans so there’s no doubt that Waterman will get his chance.
The Eagles themselves have conceded the most points in the competition (939), but unlike Melbourne, they’ve struggled to score. Even without Mihocek, it would be a shock if the Dees didn’t crack the 100-point mark for the 7th time this season.
Prediction: Melbourne by 42 points.
Harry Cumming
RICHMOND v ADELAIDE
*Sunday - 3:15pm AEST - MCG
It’s amazing what a win can do for a side that’s down on its luck and running out of options. Richmond took all but three available AFL-listed players to their game against West Coast last week and against all the odds, produced one of their best performances of the season.
During the tough years of a full rebuild, these are the types of wins that coaches will hold onto to motivate their players and undoubtedly, Adem Yze will be drawing on last week’s win to inspire his team to challenge Adelaide at the MCG.
The Crows themselves escaped with a famous showdown victory that will be long-remembered by footy fans alike but in a season where Port Adelaide’s expectations are low, and the Crows were expected to be up the top of the ladder, it is clear that the Adelaide of 2025 is still yet to show up in 2026.
After Round 8 in 2025, the Crows were 5th with five wins, three losses and a very healthy percentage of 131.8 that set them up to become eventual minor premiers. Fast-forward to the completion of Round 8 this year and the Crows are 11th with four wins and four losses, but perhaps the most telling stat is that their percentage sits at 96.6.
Matthew Nicks would be hoping his side can be buoyed by their victory last week and take a substantial win against a Tigers side that is still missing half of their starting lineup to injury.
Richmond will have some more belief this week, but the reality of their situation hasn’t evaporated.
Prediction: Adelaide by 31 points.
Harry Cumming
