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Who will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Round 7
SEN • April 24th, 2025 12:10 pm
Round 7 is here and a huge weekend of footy awaits fans.
Things kick off on Anzac Eve with Melbourne and Richmond meeting under lights before Collingwood and Essendon clash in their traditional Anzac Day blockbuster on Friday.
Fremantle also host Adelaide in Perth as part of the Anzac Day double header, while GWS and the Western Bulldogs could get fiery in Canberra on Saturday night.
Fans are treated to another pair of intriguing games on Sunday with Gold Coast hosting Sydney and Geelong facing off against Carlton.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
Melbourne v Richmond
Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - MCG
Melbourne’s poor start to the season was flipped on its head after claiming an impressive 10-point victory over Fremantle. Leading at every break, the Demons put on a controlled performance, with Kysaiah Pickett’s five goals leading the way in the club’s first win of the season.
Coach Simon Goodwin made a number of inspired changes, with Harrison Petty swinging forward to kick four goals despite the absence of Steven May and Jake Lever in defence. Despite their slow start, the Demons showed they still have the ability to compete.
Richmond have surprised the football world with their performances through six games. Following their major Round 1 scalp over the Blues, the Tigers lost four straight games, looking rather ordinary as per expectations. Round 6 was a different story, taking down the undefeated Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium. While the club’s young core has impressed, it was the veterans that stepped up in the 11-point win, with an impenetrable Nick Vlastuin in the back half, while Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper played season-best games through the midfield.
This matchup presents as an almighty contest despite its bottom-half nature. While both sides have managed just three wins between them, both Richmond and Melbourne enter the clash off the back of major scalps against Gold Coast and Fremantle respectively.
Pickett’s brilliant form will prove difficult to manage for the young Tigers, however if Tom Lynch can wind back the clock then it could be anyone’s game. Steven May's return is a major boost to the makeshift Demons defence.
The Tigers will certainly put up a fight, but the Demons may have the answers for a win that revives their season after a poor start.
Prediction: Melbourne by 7 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
Collingwood v Essendon
Friday - 3:20pm AEST - MCG
Craig McRae’s Magpies are back in a big way.
Since the Opening Round defeat to GWS, the Pies have won five on the trot including an impressive 52-point result over reigning premiers Brisbane last weekend. Now the stage is set for another massive Anzac Day clash, but they’ll be without captain Darcy Moore who has an inner ear issue. The match will see Jack Crisp equal Jim Stynes’ record of 244 consecutive V/AFL matches.
The Bombers have strung together three wins on the trot, avoiding a disaster by edging the winless West Coast by two points in Perth last week. They are in decent defensive shape of late, giving up scores of just 60, 57 and 75 in the past three weeks. They’ll need to be at their best in that area against a Pies side that has scored 100-plus in their past two. It’s an enormous test on a massive day for Brad Scott and his men.
The overall head-to-head has been a mixed bag of late. The Dons won in Round 17 last year on the back of the epic Anzac Day draw. Prior to that it was the Pies by 70 points late in 2023. From an Anzac Day point of view, Essendon salutes every four years with wins in 2005, 2009, 2013, 2017 and 2021. So based on that they’re due.
But you can’t toss out the recent form of the Pies who look the team to beat right now. It won’t be easy but the Maggies should see this one out and make it seven of the last 10 Anzac fixtures.
Prediction: Collingwood by 18 points.
Andrew Slevison
Fremantle v Adelaide
Friday - 8:10pm AEST - Optus Stadium
This one looks an incredibly hard game to pick on paper, but that's based on Fremantle being the team we thought they were, not on what they've produced in 2025 so far.
After finally finding some form, the Dockers failed in a big test in Round 6 as they went down by 10 points to Melbourne at the MCG.
While the Dockers have been known as a defensively solid team in previous years, that hasn’t quite been the case in 2025, leaking over 86 points per game. They’ll need to tighten up there against an electric Adelaide forward line that is statistically the best in the AFL.
Conversely, Adelaide picked up a big scalp for the first time in 2025 last round, defeating GWS by 18 points at home.
The Crows could easily be 6-0 if things had gone their way in a couple of tight losses, and they’ll be pretty confident that they can get the job done in Perth.
With a very healthy list to pick from, this matchup looks like it favours the Crows on what both teams have produced so far this campaign.
The last thing that Fremantle will want is a shootout, and the Crows can make it that type of game if they draw even in the middle.
The last time the teams met at Optus Stadium the Dockers held the Crows to just 34 points. That won’t happen again this time.
Prediction: Adelaide by 10 points.
Lachlan Geleit
St Kilda v Brisbane
Saturday - 1:20pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
It was a weekend to forget for the Saints against a Bont-inspired Bulldogs and it doesn’t get any easier this week. Brisbane will be keen to rectify a home loss to Collingwood.
Ross Lyon would love Max King to assist against Harris Andrews and Jack Payne; but Cooper Sharman and Mitch Owens will have to do their best to bring the ball to ground in the meantime. Dougal Howard and Hunter Clark will be handy additions, particularly the added height in defence Howard brings.
The Lions may have lost last week, but they had won the 10 games prior. Does that make it more or less daunting for St Kilda? Back-to-back Lions losses would be a surprise.
A Kai Lohmann return is welcome after last week’s muted forward potency. Brisbane is the only side to average over 100 marks a game this year (103.2) and will look to keep the ball away from the Saints to maintain a controlled game, rather than the free-flowing style Lyon’s men would prefer.
Both sides are coming off unexpected 50+ point losses last week and will be looking for a response. Expect an emphasis on high-intensity and pressure early in this clash.
Brisbane has a less than 50% win rate at Marvel Stadium since 2013, but they have beaten the Saints the last four times at the venue and haven’t lost in the Marvel Saints fixture since March 2018. Overall, the Lions have won the past six encounters and eight of the last nine.
An improved Lions side is superior to an improved St Kilda unit and will be tough to stop on the fast-paced deck under the roof.
Prediction: Brisbane by 39 points.
Ethan Clark
Port Adelaide v North Melbourne
Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide has found form with two strong wins in a row which has breathed life into their season.
The Power were 1-3 before dominating Hawthorn in Gather Round. They backed that up with a gritty win against Sydney on the road.
Now they return home where they don’t mind unleashing on lowly teams, evidenced by a 72-point smashing of Richmond in Round 2, and a handful of 40-plus Adelaide Oval results last year.
Zak Butters has hit the ground running since returning from a knee injury and is in devastating form, as is captain Connor Rozee who has flourished since moving to half-back. Throw in Jason Horne-Francis and the Kangaroos have plenty of form players to deal with.
From a North perspective, they have been battered pillar to post this week in the wake of the 82-point capitulation against Carlton on Good Friday with coach Alastair Clarkson again questioned.
They’ve already been to the Adelaide Oval this year and came away with a 36-point loss to the Crows which was the club’s 12th consecutive defeat at the venue.
This is the first clash between the two sides in Adelaide since 2019, but that hasn’t stopped the Power from asserting their dominance with five straight away wins over the Roos.
Throw in the fact that this has not been a happy hunting ground for North and it all appears academic.
Clarkson’s side MUST show more heart than they did last week and make a contest of it, but you get the feeling Ken Hinkley’s men will control this one.
Prediction: Port Adelaide by 28 points.
Andrew Slevison
GWS v Western Bulldogs
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Manuka Oval
This matchup has sneakily been one of the competition’s hottest rivalries over a decade.
The original spark was lit during the famous 2016 Preliminary Final at ENGIE Stadium, but this clash takes place in Canberra at Manuka Oval.
Even though it’s not at GWS’ traditional home, they’ve found some nice form in the nation’s capital recently with four straight wins at the venue.
They may need to rely on that here having gone down to the Dogs in their two head-to-head meetings in 2024, with Ed Richards having a big say on both games.
He’s been re-joined by on-ball skipper Marcus Bontempelli, and there’s no doubt the midfield is an area of the ground they’ll need to win to get over the line, with GWS possessing an elite defence.
Unfortunately, we won’t get the Sam Darcy v Sam Taylor matchup though, which probably gives the Giants even more of an advantage in that area of the ground.
If the Dogs can score 80+, then this is game on, but the Giants will probably be too solid around the ground to allow that to happen.
Prediction: GWS by 20 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Gold Coast v Sydney
Sunday - 1:15pm AEST - People First Stadium
With both sides coming off disappointing losses, this contest could end up being the match of the round with a lot at stake.
Gold Coast suffered their first defeat of the season last week after squandering multiple chances to try and defeat the rebuilding Tigers.
The Suns remarkably had six more scoring shots, 20 more inside 50s and five more clearances than Richmond, yet couldn’t find a way to get over the line and claim their second win in Victoria in a space of three weeks.
Damien Hardwick would be even more frustrated with the performance as it was against his former side and at his favourite ground! An opportunity he sorely missed.
As for Sydney, they dropped their second game in a row after trailing to Port Adelaide from start to finish in what was also a frustrating day in front of the sticks for them.
The Swans managed to kick 17 behinds in the defeat, as well as record seven more scoring shots and eight more inside 50s in what resulted in their fourth loss of the season.
Their task against the Suns this week won’t get any easier and should most likely find themselves with an uphill battle due to their turnover issues that have caused them a lot of grief to start the year.
Sydney are conceding the third most turnovers per game on average to begin the season, compared to their opponents who are averaging the third least.
And to make matters worse, Gold Coast are ranked as the second best side in the competition when it comes to scores off turnovers, which has been their main source of scoring in 2025 thus far.
Both sides will have a point to prove on Sunday. And due to the key personal that the Swans are still missing, plus the damming numbers that are stacked against them, Gold Coast should find a way to comfortably gain the four points and leave the Swans inside the bottom four at the conclusion of Round 7.
Prediction: Gold Coast by 24 points.
Zac Sharpe
Carlton v Geelong
Sunday - 3:20pm AEST - MCG
Is Carlton back on track? There’s only one way to find out…
The Blues seem to have somewhat steadied the ship after a brutal start to the season, claiming dominant wins over the Eagles and Kangaroos in recent weeks.
Yet this week they’ll face a massive test to their reignited resolve, welcoming a Geelong side that is rapidly firming themselves as a premiership fancy.
The Cats are fresh off claiming victory in an Easter Monday thriller, felling the Hawthorn juggernaut with an electric mix of rapid and composed ball movement.
The Blues will back themselves in to slow down Geelong’s ruthlessly efficient attack, with Carlton having conceded the third-least points per game this season.
However, the real question lies in whether the Blues’ attack can find a way to penetrate a Cats backline that has limited several potent forward groups already this year.
Carlton’s forward group looked significantly more effective in their last two games, but you can take that with a grain of salt considering West Coast and North Melbourne boast two of the league’s most porous defences.
The Blues may head into Sunday with a mountain of fresh confidence, but they’ll have a tough time getting the job done against this Geelong side.
Prediction: Geelong by 17 points.
Jack Makeham
Hawthorn v West Coast
Sunday - 4:45pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
Let’s be honest, this game should be a smashing.
The Eagles are stuck at the bottom of the ladder, winless after six rounds and no stranger to a blowout, whereas the Hawks are pushing for a premiership.
The Eagles have been DOMINATED at times this season, losing by 70+ points in half their games, including a 71-point thumping to an out-of-form Carlton. With key injuries to Elliot Yeo and Dom Sheed, accompanied with a lack of depth, it’s made for a brutal year for West Coast, and it doesn’t look like things will get any better this week, even if they were largely improved in the two-point loss to Essendon.
Hawthorn, on the other hand, will come into this clash hungry after back-to-back losses, and history is well and truly on their side. In their last two meetings with the Eagles, the Hawks have won by a combined 171 points, and there’s EVERY chance they blow them out again here.
Statistically, the Hawks dominate where it matters. They average over 54 inside 50s per game (compared to West Coast’s measly 42.7) and are ranked third for tackles inside 50. Their forward pressure is elite, and they don't rely on a select few players to win them the game, any player can step up and make an impact.
It’s a complete contrast to West Coast’s top-heavy, inconsistent lineup.
While the Hawks will be without the suspended Conor Nash, they could regain cult hero Jack Ginnivan after a strong VFL showing with four goals. For the Eagles, co-captain Oscar Allen could return, alongside Jack Williams, Archer Reid and Clay Hall, but it’s unlikely to shift the tide.
Despite West Coast’s narrow loss to Essendon last week, this feels like another long afternoon for Adam Simpson’s side.
After a blip against a fired-up Port Adelaide side, and a narrow loss against the Cats, it is hard to see any reality where the Hawks don’t rebound here. The Hawks are still the real deal, and they should continue the trend of demolishing the Eagles.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 73 points.
Connor Scanlon
