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Find your Sport Nation frequencyWho will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Round 6
SEN • April 17th, 2025 12:20 pm
The Easter weekend of footy is here!
With games set to take place over five days, footy fans will have enthralling matches to tune into over five days.
Things begin on Thursday at the Gabba between the Lions and Magpies, while Good Friday hosts two games with Blues v Roos and Eagles v Bombers.
Saturday and Sunday sees five games take place ahead of the traditional Easter Monday blockbuster between the Cats and Hawks.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
Brisbane v Collingwood
Thursday - 7:30pm AEST – Gabba
Brisbane have had a flawless start to their title defence, winning five games from five to remain one of two undefeated teams in 2025. Labelled the comeback kings (of the jungle), the Lions have come from behind to secure victory in four of their five games, anchored by the AFL’s coaches’ votes leader in Hugh McCluggage.
After falling 39 points behind in their Gather Round clash with the Bulldogs, Brisbane kicked a whopping 14 second-half goals, led by five majors from forward Eric Hipwood to claim a 21-point snatch-and-grab victory. Despite their first-half lapses, it’s evident that the Lions remain the team to beat.
Following their 52-point loss to the Giants in Opening Round, Collingwood regrouped, claiming four wins on the trot to return to the upper echelon of the AFL standings. A successful trip to Adelaide saw the Magpies take down last year’s Grand Finalists in Sydney, topping the undermanned Swans by five goals in a Friday night blockbuster. In the absence of Dan Houston, Lachie Schultz and Jordan De Goey, McRae’s men put on an uber impressive performance, with star Nick Daicos and the ever-improving Ned Long leading the way. In top form, and with returning troops, there is no saying where the ceiling lies for the Magpies.
Just one loss between the sides this year, both the Lions and the Magpies enter the Thursday night thriller in scintillating form. Despite their flawless run, this presents as the toughest challenge for the Lions thus far, facing a fearless Collingwood side that have passed every test since their Opening Round blunder.
Last time these two sides faced in Round 23 last year it was one of the games of the season as the Pies nicked a one-point victory at the death. We certainly believe this September preview could go either way, however, with the home crowd behind them, the Lions might have just enough in their armoury to remain undefeated.
Prediction: Brisbane by 8 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
North Melbourne v Carlton
Friday - 3:20pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
Well, this doesn't look like the game many hoped it'd be just a month ago.
After starting the season promisingly, North Melbourne have been disappointing in their last three games – going down by a combined losing margin of 153 points to Adelaide, Sydney and Gold Coast.
While Carlton finally got on the winners' list last week, the 71-point triumph over the Eagles hasn’t done much to calm Blues fans who were left seething after going 0-4 to start with losses to the Tigers, Hawks, Bulldogs and Magpies.
The Kangaroos’ struggles have largely come in defence with four of their five opponents this season kicking 113 points or more.
While they’ve been decent in attack, they simply won’t win many games if they continue to leak down back. The Roos have also lost their last four against the Blues.
Unlike the Roos, Carlton have been solid defensively, allowing no more than 83 to any of their opponents.
With North’s problems in defence and Carlton’s attacking issues, this is an incredibly hard game to pick. Both sides have been simply poor in 2025 and perhaps their flaws will match up, creating a close contest.
While both sides have underperformed to expectations so far, the Blues have done so more dramatically.
North Melbourne should be winning against sides in Carlton’s position at this stage of their rebuild, but the Blues have more runs on the board.
Without much confidence, Carlton is the safer pick.
Prediction: Carlton by 11 points.
Lachlan Geleit
West Coast v Essendon
Friday - 6:10pm AEST - Optus Stadium
If playing at Optus Stadium is meant to make West Coast feel better this week, the fact they’ve lost eight of their last nine at the venue will put that to bed fairly quickly.
The least ever contested possessions (77) last week would’ve given Andrew McQualter a clear focus for the week’s training so expect a grittier first quarter as a response. Even still, it shouldn’t be enough to overcome a more progressed Essendon outfit.
They’ve won the corresponding clash the last two times, so the trip won’t hold any demons for Brad Scott’s men. A 39-point win last week against Melbourne would’ve given them all the confidence they need that their house is in order enough to beat the cellar dwellers of the comp.
Nick Bryan’s ACL injury will send Sam Draper back to the ruck but that won’t be a huge issue with some tall depth in the wings.
These two teams may both be in some form of rebuild, despite Scott’s refusal, but one is much more developed than the other. In what could be one of the duller Friday clashes of the year, expect the Bombers to make it three in a row with relative ease.
An improved contested game from West Coast in more familiar surroundings is expected, but it may just trim the margin slightly from last week’s poor 71-point blowout. The job still must be done for the Dons, but an Eagles upset here would surprise.
Prediction: Essendon by 44 points.
Ethan Clark
Melbourne v Fremantle
Saturday - 1:20pm AEST - MCG
It’s been a tough start to 2025 for the Demons who are simply struggling to score. So far this year Simon Goodwin’s side has produced scores of 74, 66, 62, 46 and 57 at 61 points per game - the second fewest in the league only to West Coast - while conceding 100.6 points per game. Christian Petracca leads the way at the Dees with six goals for the season which highlights their issues forward of centre. Now they have to navigate a Fremantle side that has found its scoring mojo with a combined 311 points in three outings.
Justin Longmuir’s Freo enjoyed a nice Gather Round romp in the Barossa against Richmond last Sunday. The Dockers were tested early by the Tigers, but eventually broke the shackles, kicking nine goals and conceding just one in the second half. Josh Treacy did his Coleman Medal chances no harm with a bag of six last weekend – a career-best haul. Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong are fast becoming one of the most damaging midfield duos in the competition and the backline is in good order with captain Alex Pearce and Heath Chapman playing superbly of late.
The Dockers have strung together three wins and now have their tails up after a slow start to the season. Longmuir has unlocked their ball movement which in turn has strengthened their attacking power. On the flip side, the Demons can barely buy a goal with just eight last week and 42 for the season. They’ve lost their last three to Freo including 92 and 50-point margins most recently. It’s hard to tip the Dees right now and the fact the Dockers have won the last two MCG contests between the clubs only heightens their chances.
Prediction: Fremantle by 32 points.
Andrew Slevison
Adelaide v GWS
Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - Adelaide Oval
This game looms to be a sneaky good one, with the ever-exciting Crows looking to snap their two-game losing streak against the Giants who are coming off two four-goal plus wins.
Adelaide’s offence has been arguably the best in the competition after five games. The Crows rank first for points scored so far, as well as points off turnover, points from defensive half and scores per inside 50.
It’s proving to be a weapon their forward line, with the likes of Darcy Fogarty (16 goals), Riley Thilthorpe (15 goals) and Taylor Walker (12 goals) proving why three key forwards can work in the same side.
But the reliability of their backline still remains as an unanswered question, with it ranking in the bottom four for defending scores from the forward half and scores from centre bounce.
However, their opponent this week isn’t necessarily as strong as they’d fear when it comes to these areas of the ground, which should give the Crows optimism that it won’t be too much of an issue come Saturday afternoon.
GWS have been superb in rebounding off their defensive 50, ranking first in the league for rebound 50s with Lachie Whitfield, Harry Himmelberg and Lachie Ash dominant in that area.
This has helped create their dominance in scoring from their defensive half, which is ranked as the second best in the league after five games (only behind Adelaide).
But this strength of theirs can almost be ignored for this week’s match only, as the Crows are the second best team in the league at defending scores when it comes from the opposition’s defensive half (only behind the Giants).
So ultimately, despite the numbers being positive for both sides, it should come down to which midfielders are able to fire for longer and put the opposition’s backline under more pressure for the majority of the game.
And with the Crows not having to travel, plus getting an extra two days rest compared to the Giants, this should be the game that the Crows can claim as a scalp, which should ultimately convince the AFL public that they’re the real deal this season.
Prediction: Adelaide by 18 points.
Zac Sharpe
Richmond v Gold Coast
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
If a few other results fall their way, the Suns could find themselves on top of the ladder by the end of the round…
The Suns are amid the best start in club history, with a spot at the top of the ladder at the end of the round within reach if a few other results fall their way… not bad for Damien Hardwick’s second year at the helm.
Gold Coast have made the most of their soft fixture to start the season, stringing together dominant wins over three sides currently in the bottom four, with their sole matchup against a top eight side so far turning into a single-point victory in one of the games of the season.
Their easy run will continue as they head to Marvel to face off against a Richmond side firmly planted near the bottom of the ladder, having gone winless since their improbable victory over Carlton in Round 1.
Dimma will face off against his old club for just the third time since departing Tigerland, having taken down Richmond with ease in both of last year’s clashes, and there’s no reason to expecting things to go differently this time around.
We’ve seen the Tigers make things competitive for a half, having taken the fight to St Kilda, Brisbane and Fremantle at some stage during recent weeks, however they clearly aren’t at the stage where they can string together the complete game performance that it takes to beat these red-hot Suns.
Gold Coast will claim the four points without ever getting out of second gear, then turn their attention to Sydney next week.
Prediction: Gold Coast by 32 points.
Jack Makeham
Sydney v Port Adelaide
Sunday - 3:20pm AEST - SCG
A replay of last year's Preliminary Final, but things aren't looking as rosy as they did for both sides in 2025.
While the Power won brilliantly last week against the Hawks in Gather Round, they're simply untrustable after dropping games to the Magpies, Bulldogs and Saints - three teams they finished higher than last campaign.
As for the Swans, they've lost that air of invincibility that they held throughout most of 2024. While they have shown flashes of their best, they were dismantled by the Magpies last round.
If we're focusing on last week alone, the Power are the pick, but was that a one-off? We think it might be.
Even though the Swans have lost both games at home in 2025, they were 11-2 in their previous 13 games at the venue and will back themselves to get back on track here.
If they can match Port Adelaide on-ball, with Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, James Rowbottom and James Jordon going head-to-head with Jason Horne-Francis, Zak Butters, Ollie Wines and Connor Rozee, then they'll back their system around the ground to prevail.
If this was played at the Adelaide Oval, we'd have no idea who to go with, but the home-ground advantage should be enough for the Swans in this one.
Prediction: Sydney by 19 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Western Bulldogs v St Kilda
Sunday - 7:20pm AEST – Marvel Stadium
The Dogs and the Saints are set to go head-to-head in what’s shaping up to be a tightly contested Easter Sunday blockbuster.
The Bulldogs have started the season 2-3, but their win-loss record doesn’t tell the full story. Despite missing key players, they’ve shown strong form against tough opponents, only falling to potential top-four contenders. In fact, it’s been their second halves that have cost them, leading both Brisbane and Collingwood at half-time before falling away late.
St Kilda also started their season strong and surprised plenty of fans with big wins over Richmond, Geelong and Port Adelaide. But they came crashing back to earth last week, letting a fast start slip in a loss to the Giants. Now sitting outside the top eight, this matchup is vital for both clubs season.
The Dogs will still be without key players Adam Treloar and Cody Weightman, but their line-up could be bolstered by the return of skipper Marcus Bontempelli, who is a chance to play his first game of the season pending a fitness test. Oskar Baker is also available for selection as he returns from suspension.
The injured Saints remain with a long list of key outs including Max King, Dougal Howard, Mattaes Phillipou, Dan Butler, Hunter Clark, Paddy Dow, and Zaine Cordy. However, Irishman Liam O’Connell is available to return from concussion, and Liam Henry could be recalled after some time in the VFL.
Both teams love playing under the roof at Marvel, with each winning eight of their last nine games at Marvel, so expect a fast-paced, high-scoring encounter.
For the Bulldogs to win, they’ll need to shake their second-half fadeouts and deliver a consistent four-quarter performance. For the Saints, composure will be king. They’ve been vulnerable to opposition momentum, so staying cool under pressure and not going into their shell will be their key to victory.
The Dogs inability to finish well will leave the door wide open for St Kilda, so this game could go down to the wire. If the Saints can hold firm and ride out any Bulldogs surges, their composure and consistency could just get them over the line.
Don’t be surprised if the Saints shock the AFL world again, and improve their impressive start to the season.
Prediction: St Kilda by 11 points.
Connor Scanlon
Geelong v Hawthorn
Monday - 3:20pm AEST - MCG
What a fixture to finish the round!
The Easter Monday clash is almost always a spectacle no matter where the two clubs are placed on the ladder, apart from the last two which the Cats won comfortably.
The fact they’re sitting 6th (Geelong) and 5th (Hawthorn) respectively prior to Round 6 adds an extra dynamic to this blockbuster.
Chris Scott’s Geelong won an epic battle against the Crows in Adelaide last Thursday night, fighting from a 12-point half-time deficit to get up by 19 points in front of a raucous Gather Round crowd.
They did so without Tom Stewart (illness) and Jack Henry (hamstring), able to curtail the Crows’ in-form attack at the business end of the chaotic clash.
Patrick Dangerfield is in a rich vein of form as a deep forward pinch-hitting as a combative midfielder. He will again pose a threat, as will Jeremy Cameron who has booted 16.6 in four games as a Cat against the brown and gold.
Sam Mitchell’s Hawks have a few issues with the way they are shifting the ball forward, according to Champion Data’s Daniel Hoyne who says they have the “fourth worst ball movement game in the comp from D50 to F50 at the moment”.
Hawthorn’s winning streak came to an end in spectacular fashion at the Adelaide Oval last Sunday night, crushed by Port Adelaide who delivered a 12-goal first half to put the game to bed by the main break.
There was a fightback from the Hawks but in the end the damage had been done. There is little doubt that Mitchell will have them emotionally invested to bounce back.
The Cats have won three in a row over the Hawks by an average margin of 56, as well as six of the last eight overall. This Hawks side is much better than it has been in previous years, so that Geelong dominance isn’t the be-all, but the Cats seem to be in better control of their game right now and might be good enough to eke out a gilt-edged win.
Prediction: Geelong by 9 points.
Andrew Slevison
