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Who will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Round 24
SEN • August 21st, 2025 11:33 am
We're finally here, the last round of the home and away season.
With top four and top eight spots still to play for, all eyes will be set on the 10 games to take place from Thursday to next Wednesday.
After getting off to a slow start with an Essendon v Carlton dead-rubber, Friday's fixtures have plenty of intrigue as both Collingwood and Gold Coast look to keep their top four hopes alive against Melbourne and Port Adelaide respectively.
Saturday sees the Crows looking to sure up the minor premiership and Geelong hoping to lock in top two.
Sunday is where things really heat up, with Dogs v Dockers and Lions v Hawks in particular having a huge say in how September will shape up.
Finally, the home and away season ends next Wednesday as the Suns and Dons finally meet in their rescheduled Opening Round clash.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
Essendon v Carlton
Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - MCG
Essendon will be very glad to play out the final round in what has been a treacherous 2025.
Injury after injury, the Bombers failed to muster a clean run across the entire AFL season, leaving the side in the bottom four for the first time since 2022. Despite what was a promising start to the year, Essendon was forced into significant overreliance within their youth, fielding a record-breaking 15 debutants across 21 games. That being said, the Bombers remain very well placed for the future. Captain and superstar Zach Merrett will play out his 250th game, returning from a broken hand.
Much like the Bombers, Carlton will be very glad to wrap up what has been an incredibly difficult season in 2025. With expectations of a return to September football, the Blues’ high hopes were crushed as early as Round 1, falling short against the Tigers ahead of what would turn out to be a highly disappointing year.
While injuries have also played a part in the Blues’ year, just eight wins across the year left the club with more questions than answers. Coach Michael Voss has been backed in for another season, as incoming CEO Graham Wright prepares a lift overhaul ahead of 2026.
The final Thursday night home and away clash of 2025 sees two old enemies face off in a relatively insignificant contest. Both Carlton and the Bombers have put players on ice, looking to attack 2026 with as healthy a list as possible.
As for the game at hand, Carlton enters in top form following a dominant performance over Port Adelaide. Harry McKay maximised his return with seven goals, while the return of Sam Walsh completely reinvented the Blues’ midfield.
The Bombers are sure to have a crack in honour of their loyal skipper, however it’s hard to imagine the Blues losing this one, particularly if they perform anywhere near the level of Round 23.
Prediction: Carlton by 27 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
Collingwood v Melbourne
Friday - 7:10pm AEST - MCG
A game simply Collingwood must win if they're to give themselves a chance of clinging onto a top four spot, and Melbourne won't be wanting to make it easy.
The Magpies are coming off the back of a torturous three-point loss to Adelaide last week. It was a game they dominated but couldn’t get ascendancy on the scoreboard.
For the Demons, they're two games in under interim coach Troy Chaplin and it looks like they are just about ready to wrap up their 2025 campaign. Sitting 14th, a loss here would see them likely finish in the same disappointing spot that they claimed in 2024.
The Dees have lost four of their last five, while the only wins they’ve had since Round 11 have come against North Melbourne and West Coast.
The Magpies also hold the ascendancy in recent head-to-head clashes having won 11 of their last 13 against the Demons.
Collingwood simply must win if they’re to make a play for the premiership, and surely they can rise to the occasion against a side with nothing to play for.
While a 4th v 14th battle would usually be lopsided, it is hard to pick Craig McRae’s side with confidence given their recent results.
Still, the Magpies should pick up a much-needed win here to get some confidence before September.
Prediction: Collingwood by 28 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Port Adelaide v Gold Coast
Friday - 8:10pm AEST - Adelaide Oval
Ken Hinkley farewells Port Adelaide after 13 years at the helm and Travis Boak after 387 games. Hinkley finds himself ending against the side he was assistant coach at before he secured the role. Will that be enough motivation for his side to break a run of five losses in a row? Probably not.
Missing flair on the half-back line with the injuries of Miles Bergman and Jase Burgoyne as well as midfield depth with Jason Horne-Francis and Ollie Wines will prove incredibly difficult against this top-four-hopeful Gold Coast side. You’d still expect a better showing than the lifeless mess that was last week’s loss to Carlton.
It was an unusual result last week against GWS in just the second Suns loss at People First Stadium of 2025. Damien Hardwick would be hoping it was an anomaly, but they would want to come fully switched on tonight.
Twelve losses from twelve attempts at Adelaide Oval is hard to ignore. That is the type of hoodoo that has to change soon under the new regime at Gold Coast. A loss here would make for a must-win shaky Wednesday night against a Bombers side with nothing to lose.
It will be an emotionally charged Port Adelaide, but the cattle just aren’t there to send off Hinkley and Boak in the way they deserve as the longest serving coach and player respectively.
It’s time for the Suns to secure their first finals appearance in club history and a win here would make it all but certain. Then their focus can shift to top four next week.
Prediction: Gold Coast by 25 points.
Ethan Clark
North Melbourne v Adelaide
Saturday - 1:20pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
The Crows have been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons this week in the wake of the Izak Rankine case.
It’s easy to forget that they are sitting on top of the ladder and ready to claim the minor premiership in the final round. Matthew Nicks’ side was able to hold off a wasteful Collingwood last weekend, defending for their lives with Josh Worrell and Mark Keane leading the way. This fixture seems a bit easier, but will their heads be clouded by the Rankine drama?
The Roos enjoyed one of their best wins in recent memory when accounting for Richmond by 48 points last weekend. It was an historical day for Harry Sheezel who equalled the AFL’s record for most disposals in a game with 54. Fellow midfield gun Luke Davies-Uniacke also got a piece of the action with 40 touches of his own. It was a nice way to sign off from Tasmania duties after playing home games in Hobart since 2012.
The Crows have been dominant against the Roos in recent times, winning seven on the trot. In that time they have an average winning margin of 47.1 points, including a 36-point victory at the Adelaide Oval in round 3. They’ve won their only other trip to Marvel this season (beating the Dogs) while the Roos are 1-8 at the venue in 2025. With finals on the horizon and the minor premiership still to wrap up, there is much more for the Crows to play for.
Prediction: Adelaide by 38 points.
Andrew Slevison
Richmond v Geelong
Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - MCG
Geelong has racked up five wins in a row, scoring 111 or more points in each of those victories.
Chris Scott’s free-flowing Cats have so many avenues to goal, evidenced by the fact that this year’s Coleman Medallist Jeremy Cameron was held goalless in last weekend’s 43-point win over Sydney.
Shannon Neale, who won’t play this weekend due to suspension, bagged four while Tyson Stengle and Shaun Mannagh each kicked three. There are capable goal kickers everywhere.
It presents as a major problem for Richmond who have been prone to conceding big scores in their two years under Adem Yze.
The Tigers, overall, have enjoyed a season above expectations, but at times they’ve been disappointing and one of those occasions was last weekend against North Melbourne.
The 48-point defeat in Hobart could be seen as a step back given they arguably should have beaten the Roos back in Round 10. Last weekend’s lineup was older and more experienced than North.
And they’ve been below par against the Cats in recent times.
Since the 2020 Grand Final triumph, the Tigers have lost to the Cats five times in six meetings - the most recent defeat a 72-point shellacking at GMHBA Stadium in Round 17.
The emerging Tigers might be thinking of the off-season ahead so perhaps their application won’t be as strong as it has been. On the other hand the Cats will be applying themselves knowing they’ve got a finals series on the horizon.
There is a whiff of a blowout here. If the Tigers don’t turn up and ramp up the pressure then this could get ugly in two-time premiership Tiger Kamdyn McIntosh’s farewell game.
Prediction: Geelong by 54 points.
Andrew Slevison
West Coast v Sydney
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Optus Stadium
The end of the season can’t come quick enough for both sides with West Coast and Sydney with both sides taking a step back in 2025.
Sydney had high hopes heading into 2025 after a Grand Final appearance in 2024 however they have been riddled with injuries and teams have worked them out.
They have failed to overcome a difficult start to the year however they have been by far the best bottom nine side in the second half of the year. The Swans were very disappointing last week, going down to Geelong by 43 points at the SCG. Despite being in the game at half time they were blown away in the second half and could only manage three goals.
Saturday’s match will provide another opportunity for the Swans to get games into youngster Jesse Dattoli who has shown promise at both AFL and VFL level in 2025. Another big performance as well from superstar Isaac Heeney should lock him in for a third All-Australian blazer after a strong end to the year.
West Coast have had another disastrous season and look set to finish on just one win for the year. It was always going to be tough for Andrew McQualter in his first season in Blue and Gold however the side have been even more disappointing this year.
They looked uncompetitive last weekend against the Bulldogs and will have plenty of big contracts calls coming at the end of the season. Ryan Maric continues to be one of the shining lights for the Eagles in a very difficult season, highlighted by his 26 disposals and five tackles last weekend.
The Eagles' form at Optus Stadium is much better than interstate with good performances against Adelaide and Fremantle recently.
While the game is in Perth and both teams have very little to play for, it should be light work for the Swans who still have plenty of star power at their disposal to take care of the Eagles.
Prediction: Sydney by 50 points.
Luke Mathews
GWS v St Kilda
Sunday - 12:20pm AEST - ENGIE Stadium
GWS will be looking to continue their charge towards another September campaign when they take on an in form St Kilda at Engine Stadium.
The victory over Gold Coast last weekend all but sealed GWS’ ticket to finals with the Giants now in sixth spot and are eight points clear of ninth. It will be the Giants eighth finals appearance in ten seasons, and they appear to be hitting form at the right time with eight wins from their last ten games.
Adam Kingsley’s men can still make the top four, but a lot would have to go right. A win would likely see the Giants secure a home elimination final with a fifth or sixth place finish.
Midfield duo Finn Callaghan and Tom Green continue to dominant while the Lachie's - Ash and Whitfield - are providing plenty of run off the halfback line and are finding plenty of the footy. Youngster Harry Rowston will be looking to secure his spot for the finals with four goals last weekend helping put his name up in lights.
The Saints will be hoping to continue their strong end to 2025 and make it five wins in a row.
It’s already been a big week for supporters of the red, white and black with Nasiah Wanganeen Milera turning his back on Adelaide and Port Adelaide to recommit to remain at Moorabbin for two years.
It caps of a brilliant month with a historic come from behind win against Melbourne in Round 20 and wins against North Melbourne, Richmond and Essendon in their last four matches. Jack Steele responded last weekend after being made the sub, picking up 27 touches and 12 contested possessions while Marcus Windhager proved his value to their club with 26 disposals and six inside fifties.
Another win would give supports plenty of hope that this young list is heading in the right direction and Ross Lyon is the perfect coach to lead them forward.
While St Kilda’s form has been good in recent weeks, they haven’t been overly convincing, and it is too hard to go past the Giants who look primed and ready for another finals campaign.
Prediction: GWS by 31 points.
Luke Mathews
Western Bulldogs v Fremantle
Sunday - 3:15pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
Perhaps the biggest game of the 2025 home and away season?
While the matchup itself isn’t all that mouthwatering, no game has meant more with this being a mini elimination final on the eve of September. Whoever wins is in, while whoever loses misses out.
No team has ever missed finals (in the top eight system) winning 13 games during the season. This year it’ll either be the Dockers missing out with 15 victories or the Dogs missing with 14 wins and a percentage near 140.
Simply put, whoever loses here will feel incredibly hard done by.
Given this game is at Marvel, the Dogs do deserve to enter as favourites. Despite this, they’ve only beaten one side this year that’s currently in the top eight which is GWS on two occasions.
The Dockers currently sit seventh, so will this play in their favour? They’ll certainly hope so.
The matchups around the ground tend to favour the Dogs, so this game will boil down to whether the Dockers can match Luke Beveridge’s side in the middle.
If they can’t, their defence will come under too much pressure against a Bulldogs side that can run up a cricket score under the roof.
The Dockers can do this, but everything else is just pointing towards the Dogs booking their September ticket.
Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 21 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Brisbane v Hawthorn
Sunday - 7:20pm AEST - Gabba
Another game with huge finals ramifications.
There’s every chance that the winner here makes the top four, while the loser is sent to an elimination final.
It’s also the first time that the Hawks have played at the Gabba since 2019, with all of their last seven meetings coming either in Melbourne or Launceston. While the Hawks have won five of their last six clashes against the Lions, it’s hard to look to far into it given those have all been home games.
Looking at this matchup, we only have to look back to Round 11 where the Lions won by 33 points at the MCG. The Lions dominated on-ball that day winning the clearance count 41-24. If that happens again, they’ll be home.
As a result, Hawthorn’s main focus must be on matching Brisbane in the middle. There’s no doubt the Hawks can get any team around the ground with their spread and ball use, so giving themselves a chance to do that is critical.
Whichever team wins this one will stamp themselves as a real premiership contender, while the loser will immediately have doubts on them.
The pick has to be with Brisbane given that their best is still probably better than anyone…
Still, the Hawks don’t lack confidence and given that the Lions are 6-4 at the Gabba this year, the venue won’t scare them much either.
Get your popcorn ready, this will be a belter.
Prediction: Brisbane by 10 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Gold Coast v Essendon
Wednesday - 7:20pm AEST - People First Stadium
Preview still to come.
