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Who will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Round 22
SEN • August 7th, 2025 12:30 pm
Three weeks remain in a home and away season that's going down to the wire for one half of the ladder.
Things begin on Thursday where Hawthorn meet Collingwood in a clash with massive top eight ramifications, while Friday sees Jezza licking his lips as Geelong host Essendon at the Cattery.
The other main highlight of the round is Brisbane v Sydney at the Gabba with the Lions able to end the Swans' season for a second-straight campaign.
Unfortunately, only two top eight teams meet this weekend with all of 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 8th playing teams ranked 10th or lower.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
Hawthorn v Collingwood
Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - MCG
They may be holding on to a top eight spot, however the optics aren’t pretty for the Hawks.
With three games remaining in 2025, Hawthorn sits in seventh place, above the Giants on percentage and just a game ahead of the ninth-placed Western Bulldogs, however their place above the drop may be in serious danger.
With both Collingwood and Brisbane to play, the Hawks have by far the most difficult run home of any finals contending team, and in the absence of star midfielder Will Day, Hawthorn will need to pull off an upset to secure their place in September.
Collingwood are enduring their most difficult run of the season, as the formerly bulletproof veterans are beginning to feel the pressure from below.
Dropping three of their last four games, the Magpies were knocked off their perch atop the AFL ladder after the Brisbane Lions got the job done with relative ease in Round 20. Now, with a tricky run home including an away contest with ladder leaders Adelaide, there remains everything to play for for the formidable Magpies. Defensive rock Jeremy Howe returns in good time, while club legend Steele Sidebottom and recruit Harry Perryman celebrate their 350th and 150th game respectively.
The Magpies’ returning defensive stocks are as crucial as any heading into the business end of the season. Jeremy Howe’s absence proved damning evidence in his side’s reliance on the veteran, with a defensive unit struggling as much as any over a four-week period. Collingwood were far too good for the Hawks within their contest earlier this season, with the Pies claiming a 51-point win in what many described as the ‘perfect performance’. That being said, with so much to play for, the Hawks are certain to turn up. While a fight is expected, Collingwood are simply too good for their difficult run to continue, and with key returning players and in Sidebottom’s 350th, the Pies should get the job done.
Prediction: Collingwood by 21 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
Geelong v Essendon
Friday - 7:40pm AEST - GMHBA Stadium
Geelong has been tuning up very nicely in the lead-up to finals, putting on some massive scores across the last few weeks.
Against Port Adelaide last weekend they booted 23.15.(153) to win by 88 points at GMHBA Stadium. In seven outings dating back to the 95-point thumping of Essendon in Round 14, Chris Scott’s Cats have piled on 827 points at an average of 118, kicking 110 points or more on five occasions.
In that time, Jeremy Cameron has booted 37 goals and Shannon Neale 20. It’s a scary proposition for any defence, let alone an undermanned one.
Essendon has been majorly handicapped in the second half of the season stemming from a massive number of injuries. The Bombers have lost nine on the trot, averaging just 59 points per game. Brad Scott has had a tricky job on his hands in 2025 but at least the Dons have been able to debut 14 players – an AFL-era record.
They battled manfully against the Swans in Sydney last weekend, eventually going down by 14 points. But it gets a bit tougher this weekend.
Geelong enters this with almost a full book of players to choose from. The Cats are in good order less than a month out from September. On the flip side, Essendon has injuries everywhere and could not be further from full strength.
In the battle of the Scott brothers, expect Chris’ blue and white hoops to come out on top comfortably in what threatens to be another GMHBA fill up.
Jezza Cameron is 25 goals from the ton and will be intent on filling another big bag.
Prediction: Geelong by 56 points.
Andrew Slevison
Richmond v St Kilda
Saturday - 1:20pm AEST - MCG
I guess Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is worth the price of admission.
Apart from that, there's not much going for this game apart from both sets of fans sniffing another potential win to finish off the season.
For the Tigers, after a few solid weeks, they came back down to earth last weekend on the Gold Coast, losing to the Suns by 84 points.
Even though the Tigers seem destined to finish somewhere from 15th to 17th, Richmond fans would be fairly pleased with how their season has gone with the young group picking up five wins and showing positive signs.
As for St Kilda, they can make it three straight here after two incredibly tight wins over both Melbourne and North Melbourne under the roof at Marvel Stadium.
The main man behind those wins has no doubt been Wanganeen-Milera with the young star all but certain now to lock in an All-Australian berth.
Even though the Saints have only won one of their last five at the MCG, they deserve to go in pretty warm favourites in this game.
While Richmond have a chance if their defence plays as it did from Round 18 to 20 where they gave up an average of 62 points, the Saints probably have a bit too much class, particularly in transition with Wanganeen-Milera and Jack Sinclair.
Realistically, the Saints should be leaving the ‘G with their eighth win of the season should they play anywhere near their capabilities.
Prediction: St Kilda by 30 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Brisbane v Sydney
Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - Gabba
After a 66-point blip against the Suns, the Lions responded well last week, knocking off the Pies by four goals, who were sitting atop the ladder.
The reigning premiers are currently sitting third on the ladder and are winning games thanks to their outstanding disposal accumulation, averaging the third-most disposals per game and leading the league in marks. Brisbane look to control each contest with their ball use and gradually squeeze out their opposition.
The Lions are currently in fine form, and there’s a reason they’re one of the premiership favourites.
Similarly, the Swans have finally hit form, but it’s come at the wrong time of the season. Sydney have won six of their last eight games and have shown that their struggles earlier in the year were largely thanks to injuries to stars like Errol Gulden. While the Swans can still mathematically make finals, they’ll need more than a miracle at this stage of the season.
With little left to play for but pride, they’ll be gunning for the Lions, seeking redemption for the smashing they copped on grand final day last year.
Both of these teams are on fire, having won four of their last five games. While Brisbane are on track for another September finish, Sydney have taken a different path since their 60-point thrashing at the hands of the Lions in the 2024 grand final.
With the Lions pushing for a top-four finish and the highly sought-after double chance, the Swans are playing for revenge. This grand final rematch promises fireworks again, but expect the Lions to slowly dismantle the Swans, walking away victorious just like they did when these sides met in Round 1.
Prediction: Brisbane by 16 points.
Connor Scanlon
Carlton v Gold Coast
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
Gold Coast can just about lock in a maiden finals berth with a victory here.
In fact, the Suns enter the week on 52 points with four games still remaining and games against Essendon and Port Adelaide still ahead of them, a top four push is becoming real if they can clear this hurdle.
For Carlton, their season is well and truly over and with names like Charlie Curnow, Sam Walsh, Nic Newman and Jack Silvagni already out of a poor team, there’s every chance this doesn’t end well for Michael Voss’ side.
One thing that’s going in the Blues’ favour is that they’ve won all of their last three against the Suns, with two of those coming under the roof.
In those two games at Marvel over the last two seasons, the Blues beat up the Suns around the ball thanks to Patrick Cripps. Safe to say he’s going to have to put in a superhuman effort this time as well up against Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson and Touk Miller.
Another thing that somewhat plays into Carlton’s hands is Gold Coast’s record at Marvel. They’ve lost four of their last seven there including against Richmond earlier this season.
Still, the only reason we’re bringing this up is because literally everything else screams this: Pick Gold Coast to win.
Simply put, the Suns should have too much class and too much to play for here to get upset by a Carlton side that has checked out of the season.
If Gold Coast can match Carlton at the contest, expect their forwards to feast ahead of the ball.
Prediction: Gold Coast by 33 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Port Adelaide v Fremantle
Saturday - 8:10pm AEST - Adelaide Oval
Time is ticking for one last Port Adelaide win under Ken Hinkley.
The Power were smacked by Geelong last weekend, going down by 88 points at GMHBA Stadium and now have just three chances left to salute for Kenny.
They haven’t won since beating the Eagles in Round 18, and have copped a couple of heavy defeats in their last two (including 98 points to Adelaide).
It gets no easier with the fifth-placed Fremantle this weekend.
The Dockers are finding ways to get up, evidenced by wins in 10 of their last 11. They battled away to eventually get over the top of Carlton last week after trailing by four goals at half-time.
Prior to that they did the business against West Coast after a thrilling one-point win over Collingwood and a grinding triumph over Hawthorn. They’re very hard to beat at the minute.
Freo has lost to the Power in three of the last four meetings, but with a spot in the top four still up for grabs, you can be confident that Justin Longmuir’s men will acquit themselves well.
There is a little bit of romance in one more win for Hiinkley, however, with a possible second chance still achievable you’d be silly not to side with the Dockers.
It may not be easy but they should again find a way to win.
Prediction: Fremantle by 20 points.
Andrew Slevison
GWS v North Melbourne
Sunday - 1:40pm AEST - Manuka Oval
GWS are clinging onto eighth spot after an embarrassing 88-point defeat to the Western Bulldogs last Thursday night.
The loss means that the Giants are now in a fight to make the eight after being plenty of pundits’ preseason premiership favourites with games against Gold Coast and St Kilda to come.
Adam Kingsly’s men looked off right from the get-go last Thursday, with the Bulldogs kicking 11 of the first 12 goals to open up a 61-point half time lead. The Giants were -20 in inside fifties, -17 in clearances and a whopping -51 in contested possession in arguably their worst showing for the season. GWS will receive a huge boost however with skipper Toby Greene set to return after missing the Bulldogs game through suspension.
North Melbourne put in a much-improved performance last weekend against St Kilda however they still went down by nine points. Just a fortnight ago, the Roos went down to Geelong by 101 points with plenty of supporters fed up with the side's progress.
Young gun Colby McKercher was back to his explosive best picking up 36 touches and a goal while Harry Sheezel also finished with 33 touches and one major.
Question marks still remain over North Melbourne’s defence and they’ll have to be at their absolute best if they want to take down GWS’ three-pronged tall forward line of Aaron Cadman, Jesse Hogan and Jake Riccardi.
While North Melbourne will be hoping to provide their supporters with some joy before season’s end, it should be smooth sailing for the Giants with a finals spot still on the line.
Prediction: GWS by 47 points.
Luke Mathews
Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
Sunday - 3:15pm AEST - MCG
It seems fitting that the first game of a Simon Goodwin-less era comes against the side Melbourne defeated in the 2021 Grand Final under the departed head coach. Whether the result will be anything like that infamous day for the Demons, though, would be a surprise.
The Western Bulldogs have won their last two games by a combined margin of 181 points and will be taking no prisoners as they charge towards a desired finals campaign.
Despite the apparent improvement of performance given in the first week of an interim coach, in this case Troy Chaplin, it seems too much of a stretch for the Demons to compete seriously with a hungry Bulldogs baying for blood while coming off a ten-day break.
With just three players on their injury list (Cody Weightman, Adam Treloar and Harvey Gallagher), these Doggies fit the mould for a side ready to fire and throw everything they possibly can at the final three games of the year. On the other hand, Melbourne is still without key pillars Steven May and Jake Lever.
It would genuinely shock to see Luke Beveridge’s men eliminated from finals contention by the Demons.
Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 48 points.
Ethan Clark
West Coast v Adelaide
Sunday - 5:10pm AEST - Optus Stadium
Adelaide are charging towards the minor premiership just one season after finishing in the bottom four and many questioning Matthew Nicks’ future.
The Crows have been by far the most improved side across the competition and are now a huge chance of claiming their first minor premiership since 2017. Their charge up the ladder has come from the improvement of several key players such as Ben Keays, Josh Worrell and Riley Thillthorpe as well as being brilliantly led by captain Jordan Dawson.
After a sluggish start last Friday night, the Crows turned the tables on Hawthorn to run away with a stirring 14-point victory in a finals like game. Sunday’s game could be a chance to rest some superstars with their Round 23 game against Collingwood set to decide the minor premiership before a huge month of September action.
It's been a season to forget for West Coast once again with the side languishing in 18th spot and have won their third wooden spoon. The side will be hoping to avoid joining Fitzroy in 1964 and 1996 as well as Sydney in 1993 as sides to win just one game for the year. While the game might mean very little in terms of ladder position, plenty of players are still playing for their contracts, with Andrew McQualter set to make contract calls on several fringe Eagles. Earlier in the year, the Crows proved to be too good for the young Eagles, winning by 66 points in a dominant display at the Adelaide Oval.
It should be one way traffic one again with Adelaide arguably the competition’s most inform side at the moment while West Coast have been unable to put up much of a fight in 2025.
Prediction: Adelaide by 68 points.
Luke Mathews
