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Find your Sport Nation frequencyWho will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Round 19
SEN • July 17th, 2025 11:28 am
We’re truly entering the final straight of the 2025 AFL season with Round 19 ahead of us this weekend.
Things begin on Thursday with Essendon hosting GWS at Marvel Stadium, while Friday’s clash at the Gabba between Brisbane and the Western Bulldogs potentially deciding a top four spot.
The only top eight team to play on Saturday is Hawthorn who take on Port Adelaide, while West Coast are a sniff at their second win of the season when they meet 17th-placed Richmond.
Things heat up again on Sunday with Magpies v Dockers and Crows v Suns helping shape the top eight.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
Essendon v GWS
Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
2025 has been a nightmare for Essendon on several fronts. The injury list seems to grow each week for the luckless Bombers, with double digit first team locks all sidelined for the remainder of the season.
Having debuted 12 players across the year, and with a 13th to come in Liam McMahon, Essendon may see the benefits of such a horror run in the future. However with the likes of Nate Caddy, Nic Martin, Ben Hobbs and Will Setterfield the latest additions to the rehab room, it’s hard to see the Bombers rise from their lowly 14th position.
GWS are charging into the back end of 2025, with a spot in September well in their sights. Having won four games in a row including a commanding Round 17 victory over Geelong, the Giants are poised for a place in the finals, with just two of the top nine sides to come in their remaining six fixtures. Coach Adam Kingsley stated mid-week that stars Jesse Hogan and Josh Kelly will be managed off the back of minor injury concerns, while defender Sam Taylor eyes off a return in the coming weeks.
It’s hard to give the Bombers a chance given their recent form and growing injury list. Lining up without a glut of star talent off the back of a miserable loss to Richmond, Essendon have their backs well against the wall for the remainder of 2025. As for the Giants, their strong form was enough to take down the Cats, who famously dominated the Dons just weeks ago. Essendon’s youngsters will have a crack, no doubt, but with the players available and with the Giants’ dire need for wins approaching the finals, this one can be marked down rather comfortably.
Prediction: GWS by 45 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
Brisbane v Western Bulldogs
Friday - 7:40pm AEST - Gabba
It feels like the reigning premiers still have a few gears to shift. The Lions are on a three-game winning streak, most recently comfortably accounting for Carlton by 37 points. Chris Fagan’s side led by 52 at three-quarter time before seemingly putting the cue in the rack. They did lose important defender Noah Answerth to a season-ending Achilles injury which soured the win. But overall, the second-placed Lions are in a very good spot as they chase a top-two finish.
The Dogs have been described in some circles as flat-track bullies given they have struggled against teams in the top eight. Last weekend’s 11-point loss to Adelaide took their record to 1-7 against finals contenders in 2025, suggesting they’re not quite ready to go toe-to-toe with the big boys. That is the scenario they face this Friday night in the form of the Lions in Brisbane. As far as acid tests go, it doesn’t get any bigger.
While the Dogs haven’t quite reached the same heights against top eight teams, they’re still the highest scoring side in the league. That fact will no doubt give Brisbane something to think about. The Lions themselves are no slouches in the scoring department (fifth in the league), hitting 90 or more in six of their past seven. The Lions are on the prowl and should have enough overall quality to see this through. The Dogs will be eager to make a statement, but may just lack the class required.
Prediction: Brisbane by 18 points.
Andrew Slevison
Hawthorn v Port Adelaide
Saturday - 1:20pm AEST - UTAS Stadium
A sneaky big game for the Hawks here as they look to cling onto a spot in the top eight after dropping a pretty significant game last weekend against Fremantle, but the Power should be an easier proposition than the Dockers.
While Port Adelaide beat the Hawks last time out, they’re starting to lose several key soldiers as their push for a potential finals berth looks unlikelier by the week.
Sitting at 8-9, Port Adelaide are three games plus percentage outside of the top eight and simply can’t lose here if they’re to keep their season alive.
While the Hawks don’t have many injuries, both Will Day and Josh Weddle provide significant holes, and their fixture won’t be easy on them in the run home. If they’re to win four of their last six and play in September, they will have proven themselves to get there.
Port will give themselves a chance, particularly after their 12 goals to three first half last time, but this feels out of reach with the players at their disposal due to health.
Hawthorn also deserve to go in favourites given their record in Launceston having won nine straight at the venue.
If the Power can get on top in the middle, they could hang in here, but if that’s a battle they don’t get up in, Hawthorn’s superiority across the ground should hold them in good enough stead.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 20 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Sydney v North Melbourne
Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - SCG
Sydney - the 2024 Grand Finalists - have finally clicked into gear, winning four of their last five to surge up the ladder. Before their season-turning 44-point victory over Richmond, the Swans were at the bottom-end of the ladder in 14th, and their season looked over. Now, they sit 10th and are a smoky to play in September. Dean Cox has his men humming at the right time of year, with everything that made the Swans great last year, all flooding back now. If the form holds, Sydney could be September bound once again.
Conversely, North Melbourne sit at 16th on the ladder, with just four wins to their name, but there are clear signs of progress in their rebuild. If they finish the year at 16th or above, then this will be their best placed season since 2020. Young gun Cooper Harvey, the son of club legend Brent, kicked four goals last week in a breakout performance. With a wave of talented youth coming through, it feels like only a matter of time before North get going.
North Melbourne do though face a tough task here against a surging Sydney outfit desperate to keep their finals hopes alive. The Roos are still developing and have recently struggled at the SCG, not beating the Swans there since 2018. With Sydney building serious momentum and needing every win to stay in the top 8 hunt, expect them to come out firing. North’s young guns will battle hard, but current form and history point to the Swans securing a crucial victory to keep their September hopes alive.
Prediction: Sydney by 37 points.
Connor Scanlon
Carlton v Melbourne
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - MCG
Is this FINALLY the week Carlton fans get to sing the song after the final siren?
It may very well be!
Besides their comfortable 36-point win over North Melbourne, the Demons remain hovering between the top eight and bottom four, right next to the Blues.
Both teams are underperforming, with lists that are capable of much more, plus questions over the future of their respective coaches, meaning this game presents itself with the possibility of being just pure chaos.
In seasons past, these two teams were the two best contested possession sides in the competition. To the Blues’ credit, they’re still number one after 18 rounds of footy. And for the Demons, they’d still be happy to see themselves in fourth position.
If the game trends in the direction of being a contested slog of a match (which these two sides LOVED producing against each other between 2022-2024), then the result will likely lean the way of the Blues.
Carlton’s ability to defend has been questioned heavily this season, but their defensive work from stoppage has been consistently good - ranking inside the top five in the league. In comparison, the Dees currently rank bottom five in defending from stoppage, despite being ranked better than the Blues when it comes to scoring from stoppages this season.
With the weather likely to favour the in and under, brutal contest style of game that Carlton have tried to play this season, it should lean towards the Blues snapping their grim four-game losing streak.
Prediction: Carlton by 10 points.
Zac Sharpe
West Coast v Richmond
Saturday - 8:10pm AEST - Optus Stadium
The battle of the rebuilds resumes in Perth on Saturday night.
Richmond edged West Coast by two points the last time the two teams met at the MCG back in Round 9 - remember that Tom Brown tackle?
On that occasion the Tigers entered as favourites but the script has been slightly flipped this time around. The Eagles are narrowly favoured to win this one.
Andrew McQualter’s side took it right up to Port Adelaide last weekend before being run over the top of. But there were plenty of positive signs.
Adem Yze’s Tigers ticked off a fourth win of the campaign by beating Essendon in a forgettable Saturday night contest. But a win’s a win and it will do the Tiger cubs no harm at all to grind out close victories.
This contest pits the two lowest scoring teams and two of the three worst defensive sides against each other. So don’t expect this to be an all-out scoring affair.
But what we can expect will be competitiveness around the ball from two youthful teams looking to have a crack.
Richmond’s scoring woes are evident. The Tigers haven’t hit over 50 for five weeks.
West Coast’s attacking ability isn’t much better, but at home on the back of a positive showing, they should narrowly get the job done here.
It could go either way, but for the sake of a tip the Eagles should nab their second win of the season.
Prediction: West Coast by 6 points.
Andrew Slevison
Geelong v St Kilda
Sunday - 1:10pm AEST - GMHBA Stadium
Having lost two of their last three games, expect Geelong's intensity to lift with just six games remaining until finals. This is the time to get your game in order if you’re a contender like the Cats.
Despite a recent trend of losing to St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, their record at home against the Saints is much more comfortable reading. 12 wins a row dating back to 1999 is hard to ignore.
Ross Lyon’s developing youth core have stood out in recent weeks despite no wins. Aside from the obvious, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, the likes of Marcus Windhager, Max Hall, Alix Tauru and Angus Hastie have shown glimpses of what’s to come. But this feels like a bridge too far to break a hoodoo spanning 26 years from 15th on the ladder.
Expect Lyon’s men to come with a plan to nullify the Cats as they did in Round 2, then expect Chris Scott’s men to show why they sit in the top four regardless of recent slip-ups.
This should be a kick-start for Geelong. Expecting them to get the job done with relative ease.
Prediction: Geelong by 57 points.
Ethan Clark
Collingwood v Fremantle
Sunday - 3:15pm AEST - MCG
An intriguing match awaits at the MCG on Sunday afternoon.
Will the Pies get back on track in their first loss for some time, or can the Dockers cause a huge upset to reaffirm their status as a real finals hopeful.
While the Magpies are understandably favoured as they still sit six points clear atop the ladder, they’re without some big names like Jordan De Goey, Bobby Hill, Dan Houston and Jeremy Howe for this clash as well as some other solid names. Fremantle will consider them gettable.
As for the Dockers, they’ll be desperate to win as they currently sit eighth just one win ahead of the Bulldogs in ninth. They can’t rely on percentage either with 109.3 the lowest of any top nine team.
If Collingwood’s game clicks, they probably get the job done, particularly given that they were able to do a number on Fremantle in Round 9 in Perth without some big names. They also haven’t lost to the Dockers since 2021.
For Fremantle, they’ll be in with a big shout if their midfield of Andrew Brayshaw, Caleb Serong and Luke Jackson gets on top, particularly if Corey Wagner can shut out Nick Daicos.
While the Magpies should win, this may not be as much of an easy pick as it looks on paper.
Prediction: Collingwood by 22 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Adelaide v Gold Coast
Sunday - 4:40pm AEST - Adelaide Oval
This is an unfinished business game.
These teams met in Round 4, where Adelaide lost by one point due to an umpiring error which saw Izak Rankine not paid a free kick. If it were paid then the Crows would’ve had an opportunity to win the game after the siren. Adelaide will clearly be feeling like they deserved to win that matchup, and will be coming out to prove it this week.
The Crows are sitting pretty in third on the ladder, with their only loss in the last seven games being a three-point loss to Hawthorn down in Tasmania. Adelaide are a monster when it comes to goal scoring, being the third-highest scoring team in the competition. In fact, Adelaide have kicked over 100 points in half their games this season, so expect a high-scoring effort from the Crows here.
Similar to Adelaide, the Suns are dominating the competition right now as well. Despite playing one less game than the rest of the top eight, the Suns sit at fifth, and could very well be a top four team come seasons end. Gold Coast also have even more similarities to the Crows, averaging the fourth-most goals in the competition.
While this should be a close game, there is one telling factor – the Adelaide Oval form. The Crows have won eight from nine games at the Adelaide Oval this year, while Gold Coast have never beaten Adelaide at their home ground. This game will come down to the wire, but as the Adelaide Oval form stacks up against Gold Coast, Adelaide should narrowly walk away with a victory here, in a high-scoring contest.
Prediction: Adelaide by 17 points.
Connor Scanlon
