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Who will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Round 18
SEN • July 10th, 2025 1:06 pm
We're finally entering the home stretch of the home and away season as Round 18 begins this Thursday.
The round begins with a hugely under pressure Carlton outfit hosting Brisbane, while Friday is a mouth-watering prospect between the Suns and Magpies on the Gold Coast.
Saturday hosts a couple of intriguing matchups including Bulldogs v Crows at Marvel, Giants v Cats in Western Sydney and Dockers v Hawks at Optus Stadium.
Sunday sees no current top eight teams playing, but at least the three matches could be close from a competitive point of view.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
Carlton v Brisbane
Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
Carlton have been the face of the media in recent weeks, having fallen well short of pre-season expectations. With just six wins in their 16 games, the Blues haven’t been able to capitalise on their top-heavy list, on the verge of missing the top eight just two years after their blistering September charge.
A number of injuries have plagued the Blues, with Adam Saad, Jack Silvagni, Harry McKay and Sam Walsh all absent from the side. With Michael Voss’ job in doubt and following a poor showing against Collingwood, the Blues have plenty to prove.
Brisbane, the reigning premiers, have shot back into form following a relatively down period given their lofty standards. Back-to-back losses against the Crows and the Giants raised questions of Brisbane’s ability to repeat their success of 2024, however a strong return to form with big wins over Geelong and Port Adelaide perfectly represented the elite level that the Lions can replicate. Zac Bailey has been in electric form of late and should provide plenty of headaches.
It’s hard to give Carlton any hope following their performance against the Pies. A team that appeared completely bereft of confidence, the Blues had little to give in the contest, missing targets and failing to chase, beaten far too comfortably on the night. In what was an extremely disappointing performance, it’s difficult to see enough of a lift from the Blues to honour any hope against the Lions. As for Brisbane, their win over Port Adelaide was as mature as any, putting the foot down when needed and continuing to fire as the Power made runs of their own. Likelihood suggests another ugly night for Carlton.
Prediction: Brisbane by 37 points
Jaiden Sciberras
Gold Coast v Collingwood
Friday - 7:40pm AEST - People First Stadium
Is this the game Collingwood are destined to lose?
It kind of feels that way after they've pushed themselves 10 points clear atop the ladder, with this Gold Coast team that's now won two straight simply wanting and needing to win more.
After a brief shaky period around their Round 14 bye where they lost three straight. Their Suns have since beaten the Demons and Bombers, both games where they did enough to bridge a gap against their opposition.
At 10-5, the Suns look every chance of making a maiden finals berth and everyone will believe that 2025 is the year they play September footy if they can knock off the ladder-leaders at home.
As for the Magpies, you couldn't pick against them if all things were even, but the question has to be asked about motivation at thist stage of the campaign. Still, they're humming on every line and most recently picked apart Carlton by 56 points. It's all just about timing their run to September from here on in.
Gold Coast's hopes without doubt comes from their midfield depth, and with neither team unlikely to tag, Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson and Touk Miller will no doubt have plenty of it. There's always a guy on the other team called Nick Daicos who could win it himself if given enough space, but it's probably an area where the Magpies don't have as much star-power with Jordan De Goey out sidelined.
As well as De Goey, Collingwood are also missing best 23 locks Bobby Hill, Beau McCreery and Billy Frampton. Gold Coast are almost picking their ideal side at this stage.
This pick comes down to the fact that the Magpies are due for a loss and could almost use it to begin recalibrating and working on some deficiencies in the run-into finals.
The Suns are also 3-1 at home this year, with their only loss coming at the death against the Dockers. If they can match the Magpies around the ground, their on-ball unit can get them over the line here.
Prediction: Gold Coast by 9 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Western Bulldogs v Adelaide
Saturday - 1:20pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
The Doggies have been in dominant scoring form of late, including last Thursday night’s 49-point win over North Melbourne when they piled on 20.14.134. It was the 10th time this season that the league’s highest scoring team has kicked 100 or more points. Since Round 10 they’ve hit the ton in six of seven games, including four on the trot, for a combined total of 805 points at an average of 115. Luke Beveridge has them in devastatingly good attacking nick right now.
It certainly wasn‘t easy against Melbourne last Sunday, but the Crows did the business in the end. They overcame a tardy start and a 28-point second-quarter deficit to claim an 11th victory which has them sitting inside the top four. Izak Rankine (five goals) sent an ominous warning to the rest of the league that he remains a serious forward threat. Matthew Nicks has things in good order but it gets no easier with a trip to Melbourne to face an in-form Bulldogs side.
Could this be a good old-fashioned shootout? The league’s highest scoring team, the Dogs, up against the third best in attack, the Crows. It’s a mouth-watering prospect of two gun-slinging sides going head-to-head.
This fixture has been moved from Ballarat making it the first time the two clubs have met in Melbourne since 2016 – a very happy year for the Dogs.
It’s tempting to tip the Crows, but under the lid of Marvel and in the scoring form they’re in, the Dogs narrowly get the nod.
Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 11 points.
Andrew Slevison
GWS v Geelong
Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - ENGIE Stadium
After a comfortable win over West Coast last week, the Giants will be bolstered further by the return of Lachie Whitfield (playing his 250th) and Jesse Hogan. Adding two All-Australian’s to a side facing the experience and class of Geelong is imperative to their chances this afternoon.
The lack of height in defence with Jack Buckley joining Sam Taylor on the sidelines will be an area of concern for Adam Kingsley, though. Just one win out of the top four, GWS remain the sleeping Giants flying under the radar in eighth. Expect premiership speculation to ramp up again if they can get the chocolates here.
They just keep doing what they do, the Cats. Despite three of their last four wins being against Richmond, Essendon and West Coast, they have still got the job done in compelling fashion. But this is their hardest test in a while.
Away from home against a hungry GWS who will see Geelong’s current top four spot as highly attainable if they win today. Chris Scott’s men haven’t beaten GWS since May 2022, however the combined margin in the three GWS wins since then is 15 points. These two have a healthy little rivalry.
Expect an absolute cracker here. Genuine flip of the coin game depending on which side turns up at their best on the day. The Giants will notice the returns of Hogan and Whitfield and have depth in defence to at least compete with Cameron.
These midfields are strong; Finn Callaghan and Tom Green against Bailey Smith and Max Holmes will be enticing to watch. The home ground advantage for GWS tips them over the edge here, having won four of their five games at the venue this season.
Prediction: GWS by 3 points.
Ethan Clark
Richmond v Essendon
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - MCG
When you dig a bit deeper, this contest is much more intriguing than it appears to the naked eye.
A rebuilding Richmond and a regenerating Essendon meet at the MCG in an out-and-out dead rubber when it comes to the ladder (unless of course West Coast can win a few more games).
But there is a bit to play for with both groups of players desperately wanting a win given the circumstances.
The Tigers sit 17th with a 3-13 record and after a good patch of form have been beaten by 44, 79, 68 and 72 points across the last four weeks. They haven’t won since Round 9.
The Bombers, 13th at 6-9, have lost five in a row including 95, 41 and 41-point defeats in their last three.
That situation alone makes this a fairly fascinating fixture. Throw in the mounting injuries at both clubs and there is plenty of intrigue centred around the youngsters.
On a head-to-head basis, the Bombers have saluted three times in a row dating back to the drought-breaking 2023 Dreamtime win plus a 23-point triumph in Round 11 this year.
Given there is a severe lack of experience up forward for the Tigers, you get the feeling that it will be tough for them to kick a winning score. Adem Yze’s side has failed to kick 80 or more in their past seven while conceding 100 or more in three straight.
Brad Scott’s Bombers have been similarly poor defensively and only a little more consistent with their scoring profile. But they should see this through with gun mids Zach Merrett and Nic Martin - who dominated Dreamtime - set to be a handful again.
Prediction: Essendon by 18 points.
Andrew Slevison
Fremantle v Hawthorn
Saturday - 8:10pm AEST - Optus Stadium
This game could very well decide who makes the top eight, and you do not want to miss it.
Fremantle had their momentum halted last week by the in-form Swans, snapping their six-game winning streak. But back at Optus Stadium where they’ve been nothing short of dominant, they’ll be gunning for a swift return onto the winners’ train.
Meanwhile Hawthorn are flying. After enduring a shaky mid-season slump, Sam Mitchell’s men have surged back into premiership contention with four straight wins. Confidence is high at the Hawks, and their belief is back. They’re once again playing like one of the most dangerous sides in the competition, like they were at the start of the season.
But winning in Perth is huge task. Fremantle have made Optus a fortress in 2025, claiming victory in seven of nine matches there. Their only two losses at home came by three and 14 points - they don’t let anyone beat them easily at home.
However, one stat that should predict this contest is total disposals. The Hawks sit fifth in the league for average disposals, while Freo rank 16th. If Hawthorn can dictate the tempo and dominate possession, it gives them a clear path to victory. This stat suggests that the Hawks will be first to the ball, however the challenge lies in making the disposals count.
The Dockers will be well-rested after the bye and could welcome back a strong group, including Jaeger O’Meara, Sam Sturt, Sam Switkowski, and captain Alex Pearce. Hawthorn are expected to roll in with a near full-strength squad and may regain Jack Scrimshaw for some extra rebound down back.
On recent form, the Hawks have the edge. But Fremantle at Optus Stadium is a different beast, and writing off the Dockers at home is a dangerous game.
This one should be an absolute arm-wrestle, and it will go down to the wire. Do not miss this massive game.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 13 points.
Connor Scanlon
Melbourne v North Melbourne
Saturday - 1:10pm AEST - MCG
Last time these two teams met, it was seen as a coming of age game for the visitors.
North Melbourne destroyed Melbourne in the final quarter of their Round 2 clash, scoring 8.1 to 1.2 to set up a monster 59-point victory.
Since then, the Roos have suffered three 10+ goal losses and have won three more games.
Compared to Melbourne, who although lost their next three games after that, have won five games since and are now currently on another five game losing streak.
It’s safe to say neither side really took off from that last meeting.
Dees fans would expect and believe that this is the week that they gain their first win since Round 11.
Melbourne have won six of their past seven games against the Roos, with their last loss at the MCG to North Melbourne being in 2017.
To put it into perspective, Xavier Lindsay was a week off turning 11. That’s how long ago it was.
And with experienced players in doubt to line-up for the Kangaroos this week, the sides lined up together on paper show the Demons should be too good for the rebuilding Kangaroos.
So with history on their side and the talent available being in Melbourne’s favour this week, it points in the direction of Simon Goodwin’s men snapping their losing streak.
North Melbourne won’t go down without a fight however. Their spirit that they displayed last week and the last time they played on the ‘G should keep this much closer than what most people would think.
Prediction: Melbourne by 15 points.
Zac Sharpe
St Kilda v Sydney
Sunday - 3:15pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
The Swans have found their groove - and it’s hard to see St Kilda stopping them.
Sydney have won three of their last four, with their only blemish being a tough nine-point loss to the Bulldogs, who sit inside the top six. This sudden improvement can be attributed to the return of Swan stars Errol Gulden, Callum Mills, and Tom Papley, which has added polish and class to this Sydney outfit.
Conversely, St Kilda have been nose-diving since the start of the season. They’ve lost 10 of their last 12 and haven’t looked the same team since starting the year 3-1. In fact, West Coast’s only win of their season came against the Saints.
The issue for St Kilda lies in how they’re playing. The Saints play a very possessive, overly cautious game style, that doesn’t deliver much scoreboard impact - they haven’t gotten more than 75 points once since Round 12. The Swans, meanwhile, have rediscovered their scoring power, piling on 96 and 94 points in their last two matchups.
In good news for the Saints, they do have some recent home ground success on their side against the Swans. They’ve won two their last three against Sydney at Marvel, and the lone loss was by just 14 points. But it’s a stretch to believe that form carries over here.
St Kilda may be without Jimmy Webster, but otherwise no major changes are expected. While Sydney could be without Tom Papley and Joel Amartey after both left the game early last week with injury concerns. But they could see the potential returns of Ollie Florent and Dane Rampe, which would offer a nice balance.
Don’t expect a high-quality spectacle here. Both sides rank in the bottom five for disposal efficiency, but do expect Sydney to control the game on the scoreboard.
The Saints might try to slow the ball movement down to frustrate Sydney, but that won’t work. The Swans are in form and should get the job done without too many headaches.
Prediction: Sydney by 21 points.
Connor Scanlon
Port Adelaide v West Coast
Sunday - 4:40pm AEST - Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide love an easy kill and none look set to come easier than this Sunday against the Eagles.
The Power have won their last three against the Eagles by an average of 58 points, and it wouldn't shock if that were the case again here.
Simply put, West Coast's biggest fraility - their midfield - is coincidentally Port Adelaide's biggest strength. The likes of Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis would be licking their lips.
Mitch Georgiades could also make a big All-Australian push here. The forward sits second on the Coleman leaderboard heading into the round on 42 majors and a big bag here could go a long way to securing him a blazer.
As for the Eagles, they haven't been disgraceful in their last handful of games but are still on a six-match losing streak at an average of 40.1 points.
West Coast fans will just want to keep seeing continual improvement from the likes of Harley Reid and Tom McCarthy, because surely their hopes of a win against a side with still a slim shot of playing finals aren't realistic.
Port, by plenty.
Prediction: Port Adelaide by 48 points.
Lachlan Geleit
