Cricket
Racing
Rugby
League
Motorsport
Football
Golf
Combat Sports
Basketball
Netball
Other Sports
Sport Nation
Important SN update for SouthlandWho will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Round 17
SEN • July 3rd, 2025 11:47 am
After several interrupted weekends, all 18 teams finally return for a full slate of games in Round 17.
Things begin on Thursday as North Melbourne host their Centenary celebration against the Western Bulldogs.
There is a double header on Friday, with the pick of those battles undoubtedly Carlton v Collingwood after a huge week of pressure at Ikon Park. West Coast will also host GWS in Perth.
Saturday's highlight is probably the Brisbane v Port Adelaide clash at the Gabba, while Sunday sees the Swans host the Dockers at the SCG.
The round also sees the top 9 teams all facing teams in the bottom 9.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
Just as it appeared as though North Melbourne had turned a corner, it all came crashing down.
A massive scalp over the struggling Blues marked a substantial result following an impressive run of three wins and a draw across their last six games. Rising outside the bottom two and sitting just two points behind 14th placed Melbourne, the Kangaroos travelled to Tasmania, where the Hawks brought them back to earth with an 85-point thumping. Colby McKercher, who has signed a new contract, maintained his good form, while Nick Larkey kicked five goals despite the loss.
The Western Bulldogs are building towards a significant charge home in 2025, bullying sides in the bottom half to land a spot within the top eight. With the third best percentage in the league, the Dogs have made light work of their lesser opposition, having beaten every side below them on the table outside of the Gold Coast Suns. That being said, the Dogs have lost in every contest against current top eight sides, holding an unwanted record of 0-6 against the top half teams. Tom Liberatore is set to celebrate his 250th game for the club.
If the Kangaroos play their best brand of football, demonstrated in spades against Carlton in Round 15, they are every chance of competing with the Bulldogs. However, their lacklustre performance against Hawthorn last week raises serious concerns of their ability to match up against the best in the competition. They also have a few personnel issues with the outs list consisting of Luke McDonald, Luke Parker, Jack Darling, George Wardlaw and Zac Fisher.
As for the Bulldogs, their dominance against lower end sides appears all but guaranteed to continue. Prior to their nine-point win over the Swans, a 79-point win and a 72-point win over the Tigers and Saints respectively sum up their nature of beating up on lowly sides.
History says this could get ugly for North Melbourne.
Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 42 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
Carlton v Collingwood
Friday - 7:20pm AEST - MCG
Can Carlton respond after a week of intense pressure?
Star defender Jacob Weitering is certain of it after the Blues disappoint went down by 50 points last Thursday which put the heat on Michael Voss’ position as head coach.
We’re not so sure. Simply put, even if there is a response, they probably don’t win this one.
The Blues are going horribly at 6-9, while the Magpies are flying 10 points clear atop the ladder with seven straight wins under their belt. This reads as a mismatch.
While both teams have big names out, Carlton’s reliance on their stars and Collingwood’s reliance on their system puts the Magpies in a far better spot and they’ll hope they can strangle the Blues as they did when the teams met in Round 4.
Collingwood’s league-leading defence held Carlton to just 46 points in Round 4 and the Blues probably need to kick a score of 80+ if they’re to have a hope. They haven’t reached 90 since Round 7.
Conversely, the Magpies have reached triple figures in three of their last five while winning every game that they’ve restricted teams to 85 or less in 2025.
Carlton’s hopes come from if they win all of their big matchups. Curnow v Moore, Cincotta v Daicos, Cripps v Pendlebury and Weitering v Mihocek. If they even lose a couple of those, the Magpies’ system and ability to get much more out of their role players than Carlton have this season should make them too strong.
The Magpies have also won six of their last seven against the Blues as well as 18 of the last 22 head-to-head games.
Either way, it’ll be a fascinating watch for all footy fans.
Prediction: Collingwood by 22 points.
Lachlan Geleit
West Coast v GWS
Friday - 8:20pm AEST - Optus Stadium
West Coast's one win of the season came at home and the Friday night lights could serve as extra motivation to turn out for this one. To be any chance here a fast start is key against a Giants side coming off the bye.
Of their nine wins since the start of 2023, one was over GWS at Optus Stadium when they won just three games in ’23 so it is not fully without hope.
The spirit shown by the Eagles last week in the 29-point loss to Collingwood was admirable and Andrew McQualter clearly has this group playing out the season strongly; despite no Oscar Allen or Jake Waterman leading the forward line.
Having just enjoyed the bye after winning four of five prior makes for good reading for the Giants. They remain without Lachie Whitfield for the trip West as he stays in concussion protocols. Sitting outside the eight but just one win and percentage off top four, the Giants cannot afford to slip up in games like these on the road.
They have class and depth that the Eagles can only dream of right now and need to flex this in the final stretch of the season to prove their premiership credentials.
GWS need to remind the footy world that they are a serious threat come September and a win on the road in prime time, albeit against West Coast, is a perfect way to get back into their groove post-bye.
Pound for pound they are miles ahead of the Eagles and a win here keeps them in touch with the top echelon on the table. Just eight games remaining means every win is crucial the Giants, while the Eagles will want to learn as much as they can about their list ahead of the off-season.
Expect a gallant Eagles once again, but the Giants should wheel away in the end.
Prediction: GWS by 35 points.
Ethan Clark
Essendon v Gold Coast
Saturday - 12:35pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
Essendon enters this fresh off a bye which came at the perfect time given the mounting injury list.
But even in their downtime, the Dons were crocked with Kyle Langford (quad), Darcy Parish (calf) and Mason Redman (hamstring) all pulling up lame. Zach Reid (hamstring) also suffered a little setback at training this week. Amid their medical room woes over the last six weeks, Brad Scott’s side has mixed commendable performances with 90-plus point losses. They’ll need to be at their best if they want to take it up to the Suns here. Thankfully, Sam Durham returns from suspension to boost the midfield.
Gold Coast played in fits and spurts at home against Melbourne last weekend, but got the job done in the end. The Suns kicked five goals to none in the opening term before conceding five to the Dees and kicking just one in the final term. They’ve had similar lapses at other stages this season, so Damien Hardwick will be intent on bridging the gap between their best and their worst as they strive to play finals for the first time. Gun midfielder Matt Rowell brings up his 100th game on Saturday.
The Suns can smell a maiden finals berth. It’s oh so close. But they do remain precariously placed in eighth spot, only percentage clear of the Giants in ninth. It’s games like this against an injury-hit Bombers that they simply must win to break the finals hoodoo. They’ve won their past two against the Dons, including a dramatic one-point result at Marvel Stadium in Round 22 last year.
It appears as though the Suns are a bit better equipped for this one and it’s hard to see them going under in a must-win match.
Prediction: Gold Coast by 24 points.
Andrew Slevison
Geelong v Richmond
Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - GMHBA Stadium
Geelong at GMHBA. This is generally a fairly daunting task for any team (aside from Brisbane recently).
It’s especially intimidating for a young Richmond team taking on a Cats side likely to be ferocious after stewing on the Lions loss during their bye week.
Throw in the fact the Tigers have not won at the venue since 2006 and the task gets harder.
Last year the Tigers gave a good account of themselves down at the Cattery, leading at both quarter and half-time, trailing narrowly at the final change before falling away to lose by five goals.
That will give them some hope but they’ll need to be much better than they have in their past three losses - 44 points to Sydney, 79 points to the Bulldogs and 68 points to Adelaide.
And they’ll have to navigate a strong Cats defence without Tom Lynch. The forward line will be very inexperienced.
It will be a tricky proposition for Adem Yze with how he attempts to stop Bailey Smith and Max Holmes. Opposition midfielders have filled up against the Tigers over the last few seasons and that promises to be the case again.
Jeremy Cameron has kicked just two goals in his last two against Richmond, but is in hot form of late, booting 28 majors in his last six. If they get enough ball inside 50, he might just do some serious damage.
Chris Scott's Cats will be licking their lips ahead of this fixture. The rebuilding Tigers will be hoping to show as much fight as possible but it is highly likely that the damn wall will break at some point.
Prediction: Geelong by 42 points.
Andrew Slevison
Brisbane v Port Adelaide
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Gabba
This may not be as much of a walkover as what would have been expected just a month ago.
Port Adelaide have somewhat resurrected their season with three wins since their Round 12 bye and now own a 7-8 record, just two games out of the top eight.
Simply put, they must win here if they’re to stay in touch and keep their September dreams alive.
For Brisbane, they sit second, but they haven’t been dominant in their last three, losing two of those.
While they still rightly deserve to enter as favourites, they’re not playing anywhere near their best footy.
When we look at the head-to-head battle though, Brisbane clearly have the wood on Port Adelaide having won both of the previous two encounters by large margins. In those games the Lions were able to kick cricket scores thanks to midfield and inside 50 dominance.
If they can get on top in that part of the ground again, they simply will give their forwards enough chances to kick what will be a winning score.
Port Adelaide’s hopes rest with them controlling field position and hoping that their defence, which hasn’t given up more than 71 points across the last month, continues to hold up.
Even though the Power will give themselves a chance, Brisbane at the Gabba against a team that’s not currently inside the top eight is always the pick.
They should get the job done here.
Prediction: Brisbane by 30 points.
Lachlan Geleit
St Kilda v Hawthorn
Saturday - 7:40pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
The Hawks are hunting the Saints for a top four spot here.
Despite St Kilda impressing against Fremantle last week, let’s not get carried away when looking at that game. Remember that the Saints also thumped the Dockers by 61 points back in Round 8, and it has become clear Ross Lyon has a blueprint for beating his old side.
But when you zoom out, the bigger picture is grim. St Kilda have lost six of their last seven games, with their only win in that stretch coming against Melbourne, who themselves have only five wins for the season.
Meanwhile, Hawthorn are building form. They’ve shaken off their mid-season blues and now sit fifth on the ladder after three straight wins. A fourth in a row could boost them into the top four, and given their current form, they’re every chance of doing just that.
This clash is set to be a high-possession game, with both sides ranked in the top six for disposals. But there’s a key difference: how they use the footy. The Hawks are composed and efficient, while St Kilda are wasteful. The Saints sit 13th in the league for disposal efficiency, and if they continue turning the ball over, the Hawks slick rebound game will punish them on the scoreboard.
And the scoreboard in this game could get ugly. St Kilda have conceded the fourth most points in the AFL this year, while the Hawks rank fifth for scoring. That’s a mismatch that mirrors Hawthorn’s 85-point demolition of North Melbourne last round. Don’t be surprised if a similar result unfolds here.
Hawthorn may be boosted by the return of stars James Sicily, Mitch Lewis, and James Worpel, only strengthening their hand. The Saints will go in with a stable line-up, but without much upside to change their fortunes.
Don’t overthink this - the Hawks will comfortably win this game.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 57 points.
Connor Scanlon
Sydney v Fremantle
*Sunday - 1:10pm AEST - SCG
Can the Dockers extend the bizarre away-team streak?
Back in Round 2 at Optus Stadium, Sydney edged out Fremantle by three points - an away win that’s part of an odd trend in this head-to-head matchup. The home side has lost the past six meetings between these two teams, meaning recent history favours the Dockers at the SCG.
Fremantle are also flying right now. They've won 6 games straight and now sit comfortably inside the top eight, playing some of their best footy for the season. But standing in their way is a rejuvenated Sydney side, boosted by the recent returns of Errol Gulden, Callum Mills, and Tom Papley.
Despite the away-team streak, this clash should come down to ball use. Fremantle sit fourth in the league for disposal efficiency and have been methodical in their ball movement throughout their winning streak. Sydney, on the other hand, rank 16th in efficiency and will need to sharpen up if they’re to match the Dockers for four quarters.
Fremantle should come into this matchup with a near full-strength line up, welcoming the potential inclusions of Alex Pearce, Jaeger O’Meara, Michael Walters, and Sam Switkowski. While Sydney may be without Dane Rampe, who was subbed out last week with injury. Still, the Swans are in a much better place than they were earlier in the season, thanks to the return of key players.
With both teams near full strength, this is set to be a high-quality contest. But the away-team streak, stats, and Fremantle’s recent form all point one way.
Prediction: Fremantle by 15 points.
Connor Scanlon
Adelaide v Melbourne
Sunday - 3:15pm AEST - Adelaide Oval
The two teams in question enter this contest with completely opposite form lines. The Crows are flying with wins from four of their last five, whilst the Dees are struggling with four defeats in a row having them on the verge of the bottom four.
Funnily enough, the last time these two teams played, both sides entered the game at completely different positions on the ladder.
Melbourne were third and had won three games in a row, whilst Adelaide were 15th and were still searching for their first win of the season. This was only 15 months ago!
A lot has changed since then. Now the Crows seem destined to go deep in September. Compare that to Melbourne, who might find themselves in the bottom four come season's end for the first time since 2019.
Adelaide’s last five weeks have been outstanding. The Crows have been number one in contested possessions, intercept possessions, stoppage clearances, scores from turnover and defending scores from turnover in the competition. All areas that go a long way in helping you win a premiership.
The Dees however, they’ve been falling apart in the important stats, which frustratingly for them was in a good spot not too long ago when they had won five games through a six week period.
A big watch on Sunday will be how Melbourne contain Adelaide’s ball movement and their powerful forward line.
A big watch on Sunday will be how Melbourne contain Adelaide’s ball movement and their powerful forward line.
The Dees have struggled defensively recently, conceding scores of 104, 93, 72 and 91 in the past month.
And when it comes to ball movement, Melbourne are ranked last in forcing turnovers via kicks, with opposition teams going at 70.9% by foot when playing against them in the last five weeks.
This contest is destined to only go one way, which isn’t good news for the visitors.
It should be five wins from six for the Crows this week. As well as a step closer for Matthew Nicks’ men to cementing their spot inside the top four for 2025.
Prediction: Adelaide by 38 points.
Zac Sharpe
