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Important SN update for SouthlandWho will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Round 16
SEN • June 26th, 2025 1:02 pm
Round 16 action commences on Thursday night with Port Adelaide hosting Carlton in Adelaide in what will be a huge game for the Blues.
Friday's attention then turns to Sydney where the Swans and Bulldogs meet in an intriguing clash at the SCG.
Saturday has three fairly lopsided games: Suns v Demons, Hawks v Roos and Magpies v Eagles.
Sunday doesn't get a whole lot better from a competitive standpoint with the Tigers and Crows meeting at the MCG and the Dockers hosting the Saints at Optus.
The bye teams in Round 16 are: Brisbane, Essendon, GWS and Geelong.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
Port Adelaide v Carlton
Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide are not quite playing up to the standards of prior seasons having won just six games across the course of 2025. Two great wins against Melbourne and GWS, alongside a returning Jason Horne-Francis in recent weeks sparked life into the Power, however Round 15’s loss to Sydney was well below par. With the coaching transition between Ken Hinkley and Josh Carr persisting, Port Adelaide will look to improve on their form in the back end of the season.
Carlton have been the face of media scrutiny for the entirety of the week after a disastrous 11-point loss to the Kangaroos. Winning just six of their 14 games thus far, the Blues are far from meeting their lofty expectations, continuing to falter as the season plays out. That being said, the Blues’ strong percentage has them placed as the best of the rest, with a turn of form required to maintain pace with the upper echelon. No Sam Walsh or Harry McKay, their injury concerns won’t do Michael Voss any favours.
Both of these sides are on the verge of season’s end, with wins as valuable as ever. Having both failed to capitalise off the back of their September runs in 2024, the Blues and the Power desperately need to take home the four points if they want any chance of remaining in touch with the top eight. Carlton’s loss to North Melbourne will undoubtedly spark a strong response, however the continued absence of Walsh and McKay could prove significant. For Port, their home loss against the Swans left a lot to be desired, but they should be good enough to pounce on an undermanned and underperforming Blues side.
Prediction: Port Adelaide by 14 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
Sydney v Western Bulldogs
Friday - 7:40pm AEST - SCG
If Sydney are any chance of playing finals in 2025, they need to begin winning games like this.
This Bulldogs test comes at an ideal time as the Swans have played probably their best footy for the entire season over the last two weeks.
In those two wins over Richmond and Port Adelaide, the Swans have given up just 36 and 52 points as they look much tighter defensively. To be any chance here, they’ll need to put in a similarly stingy performance.
The Bulldogs meanwhile enter the round with an 8-6 record. Many believe the Dogs are one of the best teams in it, although they’ve only beaten one side currently inside the top eight.
Luckily for Luke Beveridge’s team, the Swans enter this round in 11th spot, and going off form that should equate to a solid win.
Marcus Bontempelli is again in peak form and this match will be a celebration of the Bulldogs skipper who plays game 250. Sydney will need the likes of Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, Callum Mills and Errol Gulden to have a big say against Bont and his Bulldogs on-ball brigade to be any chance.
The Dogs also won’t hold any fears of the SCG, having beaten Sydney at the venue by 39 points the last time these teams met late in the 2024 campaign, a year the Swans finished minor premiers.
Given how strong the Bulldogs’ game has looked against sides below them this year, they should get the job done pending Sydney’s big guns all having huge outings.
Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 19 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Gold Coast v Melbourne
Saturday - 1:20pm AEST - People First Stadium
This game looms as a must-win for both teams as Gold Coast and Melbourne enter this clash with three consecutive losses to their names.
For the Suns, they’re shockingly outside of the eight after such a hot start, and they’ll be desperate to restart their finals push here at home.
For Melbourne, their three straight losses of a really strong path of form prior to that.
Even though the Demons have gone down in those last three games, they’d believe they’ve been reasonably strong in each of those games with goalkicking letting them down having kicked 26.46 over that period to the opposition’s 39.22.
Gold Coast’s recent form also hasn’t been as bad as the losing streak looks as they easily could have gone 2-1 over that stretch if a couple of things went their way.
This game being at People First Stadium also favours the Suns even though the Demons won by 54 the last time the teams met at the venue in Round 23 last season.
While the venue won’t scare the Demons, the Suns will also feel incredibly confident having flogged Melbourne by 58 the last time these teams met which came in Round 3 of this season.
Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell ran riot in that game at the MCG, and if that Gold Coast duo can impress in the midfield again, they should be too strong.
Overall, it’s hard to see the Demons winning this unless something goes wrong for the Suns.
Prediction: Gold Coast by 28 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Hawthorn v North Melbourne
Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - UTAS Stadium
Are the Hawks back?
After copping it from the media following three straight losses, Hawthorn have responded the right way, with strong and composed wins over the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide.
And now, with a return to Tasmania, they’re primed to make it three consecutive wins.
Hawthorn are playing at their home away from home – a venue which they dominate at. They’ve won their last eight matches at the University of Tasmania Stadium and look well placed to extend that against a young North Melbourne side still finding its feet.
North has shown signs of improvement, notching wins over West Coast and Carlton, and nearly defeating Fremantle in the last month. However, the Eagles and Blues aren’t necessarily the hardest teams to knock off. There’s definitely plenty to like about the Roos’ developing list, but this task might just be a step too far, especially down in Tasmania.
On paper, these sides are relatively even across most key stats. But one stat tells you all you need to know - points against. North Melbourne have conceded the third most points in the league this season, while Hawthorn have conceded the fifth fewest. That gap strongly suggests the Roos could find scoring tough, while the Hawks may find opportunities easy to come by.
Hawthorn are also fresh off the bye and could be bolstered by the return of James Sicily, James Worpel, and Jack Scrimshaw - a massive boost that would push them close to full strength. Similarly, North Melbourne should also enter with a near full-strength lineup.
It might not be a blowout, but expect the Hawks to take care of business and extend their winning streak.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 31 points.
Connor Scanlon
Collingwood v West Coast
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
This is probably the easiest result to predict out of the whole AFL season.
Ladder-leaders Collingwood take on wooden spoon favourites West Coast in Melbourne - a matchup that screams mismatch in every way possible.
The Eagles have managed just one win all year, and that came against the struggling Saints. Meanwhile, the Pies have only fallen to top 8 sides - Geelong and GWS.
Statistically, the numbers paint a brutal picture for West Coast. They’ve conceded the most points in the league and rank dead last in disposals, disposal efficiency, marks, and goal efficiency. In fact, across every key stat, the Eagles sit in the bottom four.
Conversely, Collingwood are a machine. They’ve conceded the least points in the competition, sit fourth for tackles, goals, and goal efficiency, and are defeating nearly every team they face.
However, Beau McCreery will miss this matchup with a hamstring injury, but the Pies could regain Brayden Maynard and potentially recall Brownlow medallist Tom Mitchell, adding further depth to their insane lineup.
West Coast come into this matchup fresh off a bye and may regain Matt Owies, Brady Hough, and Archer Reid. But they’re still without key names like Oscar Allen, Jake Waterman, Dom Sheed, and Elliot Yeo.
Jeremy McGovern has now been medically retired for the Eagles, further hurting the inexperienced West Coast squad.
Simply put, this one could get VERY ugly. The question isn’t will Collingwood win, it’s how much will they win by.
Prediction: Collingwood by 74 points.
Connor Scanlon
Richmond v Adelaide
Sunday - 3:20pm AEST - MCG
The lowest scoring team and second worst defensively versus the third highest scoring team and second best defensively.
The second lowest percentage versus the highest. That is a recipe for disaster.
Richmond copped an almighty 79-point smacking at the hands of the Western Bulldogs last weekend and it gets no easier here as they host Adelaide, who are fresh off a bye.
At the Adelaide Oval in Round 13 last year, the Tigers knocked off the Crows by eight points. Since then, Adem Yze’s rebuilding side has won just three of 24 while Matthew Nicks has guided the Crows to 13 wins from 24, but more importantly a 9-5 top-four record in 2025.
The last time the Crows were in action they were rolled over by Hawthorn in a low-scoring Launceston eyesore, but expect them to unleash the shackles at the ‘G on Sunday.
While the Tigers have won the last two over the Crows, it’s hard to tip them here given the class gulf between the two sides.
Adelaide’s attacking arsenal of Riley Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty, Taylor Walker, Josh Rachele and Ben Keays have all kicked 20-plus goals so far this campaign. The Tigers have only Seth Campbell who has hit that marker.
Yze will be expecting an improved defensive performance after conceding 21 goals to the Dogs. Increased pressure around the contest could help the Tigers make a game of it early but the Crows should eventually find their scoring mojo.
Prediction: Adelaide by 45 points.
Andrew Slevison
Fremantle v St Kilda
Sunday - 5:10pm AEST - Optus Stadium
Five wins in a row for Fremantle is good form heading into a Sunday home fixture against a struggling St Kilda.
They saw off Essendon without too many issues in Round 15 and continue to knock on the door of the top four - a position they are determined to fill.
In the past we’ve been sucked in when the Dockers have strung a few together, but it feels different in 2025.
This weekend will be a good test even if the opposition sits in the bottom four.
The Saints made enough of a nuisance of themselves against Collingwood before floundering late. Similar commitment here would push Freo all the way, but is there enough class under Ross Lyon to kick a winning score?
St Kilda has won four of their past six over the Dockers and got up the last time the two clubs met in Perth in 2022. But as we mentioned before, it just feels a little different under Justin Longmuir at Freo this year.
They have their defensive game in order, conceding scores of just 61, 51, 64, 67 and 63, at an average of 61.2 across that five-win streak. Given the Saints have scored more than 80 just once in their last six, it’s hard to see where an upset comes from.
Do we put our faith in Freo? It’s risky business, but they really should be backing this win.
Prediction: Fremantle by 23 points.
Andrew Slevison
