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Who will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Round 15
SEN • June 19th, 2025 12:12 pm
Round 14 action commences on Thursday night with Fremantle hosting Essendon in Perth.
That's just a warm-up for Friday, which is potentially one of the games of the year as a red-hot Geelong host reigning premiers Brisbane in a game that they'll both be desperate to win.
Saturday has three intriguing games: Carlton v North Melbourne at the 'G, Port Adelaide v Sydney in Adelaide and Collingwood v St Kilda at Marvel.
Sunday sees GWS and Gold Coast meet in a coin-flip before the Western Bulldogs wet their lips against Richmond.
The bye teams in Round 15 are: Adelaide, Hawthorn, Melbourne and West Coast.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
Fremantle v Essendon
Thursday - 8:10pm AEST - Optus Stadium
Fielding one of the youngest teams in the AFL, Fremantle have begun to find their feet amongst the strongest in the competition. Entering Round 15 with four wins on the trot, the Dockers have commenced their rise up the ladder, occupying a slot in the top eight with eight wins from 13 games so far. Round 14 was far from the ideal contest out west, as Fremantle squeezed home against a charging North Melbourne side by just six points.
Considering their immense injury crisis, Essendon’s season has been commendable. Six wins from 13 games, the Bombers find themselves within touching distance of the eight despite having debuted 10 players thus far, with an 11th in Vigo Visentini set for tonight’s clash. That being said, their recent run of form has been rather dire, winning just one of their last five including two 90+ point losses at the hands of the Bulldogs and most recently Geelong.
Two young sides navigating entirely different expectations. Their last game before their scheduled bye, the Bombers will undoubtedly throw everything at Fremantle in attempt to steal an unlikely result. That being said, this is a game that Fremantle can’t afford to drop. Beginning to mount a serious September charge, the Dockers need to put away their favourable fixtures to hang with the remaining sides fighting for limited top eight places.
Essendon will most certainly enter with confidence having stolen this contest by a point at the business end of last season, however the Dockers’ relatively healthy squad should eventually get the job done.
Prediction: Fremantle by 33 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
Geelong v Brisbane
Friday - 7:40pm AEST - GMHBA Stadium
You can’t get more impressive than Geelong’s demolition job on Essendon at the MCG last weekend. The Cats went berserk, kicking 23.13.(151) to win by 95 points with a bag of six goals from Jeremy Cameron, four from his sidekick Shannon Neale and three each from Shaun Mannagh and Patrick Dangerfield. Throw in Max Holmes and Bailey Smith combining for 77 disposals and there are some seriously in-form players at the Cats. Chris Scott’s side has won five on the trot and have scored 100 or more in five of their past six.
The Lions are struggling to consistently bring their best footy to the table in 2025, losing their past two and winning just two of their past six. After they were profligate against the Crows in Round 13, the Lions repeated the dose against the Giants last week, kicking 13.18 to lose by 11 points. The measly total of 28 tackles laid in the GWS defeat has been well-documented so expect them to come out firing in that department. Despite their recent woes, Chris Fagan’s reigning premiers remain third on the ladder.
Both the Cats and Lions have been hit with key defensive injuries with Sam De Koning (shoulder) and Jack Payne (knee) respectively suffering significant issues. They cancel each other out for this match, but could provide challenges for both sides in the coming weeks.
The Cats are on a tear right now and will likely enjoy being back home in front of a celebratory ‘white-out’ crowd. The Lions have won their last two over the Cats and will be hard to beat, but Geelong should get it done in Dangerfield’s 350th.
Prediction: Geelong by 10 points.
Andrew Slevison
Carlton v North Melbourne
Saturday - 1:20pm AEST - MCG
Carlton go in search of their third consecutive win after defeating Essendon and West Coast across the last fortnight, but they've since been hit by the injury bug.
With Sam Walsh already out, the Blues have since lost Harry McKay and Matt Cottrell (both to undergo surgery), while Charlie Curnow could also miss with a calf complaint.
If both of Carlton's big forwards are out, North Melbourne will have to consider this their best shot against the Blues in recent memory.
The last time these teams played, the Kangaroos were flogged by 82 points on Good Friday, but since then, they've been in every game they've featured in. They also hold a 2-1-2 record in their last five, and could prove a different prospect on the MCG.
Just as North's record is improving, so is Carlton who can reach an even 7-7 record with a win before the fixture gets tough again in the back half of the year.
While the Blues have won their last two they haven’t dominated offensively, kicking 78 and 86 points. If North are to win, they'll hope to hold Carlton to 75 or less and hope their midfield can break even. It's not impossible, but it's not a shock that the Blues enter as favourites.
Even though the Roos are a genuine sniff, their recent record against the Blues where they've lost all of their last five head-to-head by an average of 46 points is too hard to look past.
They would also have to produce a near 100-point turnaround from Good Friday to win.
The Roos are absolutely in it, but this may be just a bridge too far.
Prediction: Carlton by 20 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Port Adelaide v Sydney
Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - Adelaide Oval
The Preliminary Final replay again from last year… except both teams have fallen off a cliff.
After finishing 1st and 2nd on the ladder respectively last season, the pair now sit at 11th and 13th. This clash is less about premiership contention and more about salvaging pride.
These sides met earlier this season in Round 6, where Port led all day to secure an 8-point win at the SCG. With this one back at Adelaide Oval, the Power should fancy their chances of doing it again, especially after winning this fixture by 112 points in Round 12 last year.
Port Adelaide have hit a small patch of form after a rough stretch, which included four massive losses by 49 points or more. The inclusion of Jason Horne-Francis, Kane Farrell, Esava Ratugolea, Mani Liddy and Josh Sinn over the past two weeks has added much-needed energy to the Port side, ultimately helping them get over GWS and Melbourne in their last two.
The Swans are a shadow of the team that topped the ladder in 2024. Since their disastrous Grand Final loss, they’ve looked lost. Despite an encouraging win over Richmond before their bye, most of their victories have been nothing to be overly proud of.
Statistically, Sydney have plummeted from last season as well. They rank 16th in tackles inside 50, 15th in disposal efficiency, and 14th in disposals and marks. Their only relative strength is overall tackle pressure (9th), and if they are to cause an upset, that physicality needs to be brought to Adelaide Oval - especially inside the forward 50, which they have been doing horribly at.
Port Adelaide should come into this matchup with no major changes, while the Swans could be bolstered by the potential returns of Errol Gulden, Tom Papley, Joel Amartey, and Matt Roberts, which would increase their chances of victory massively. But unless they can somehow become the team they were last year, they’ll struggle against a Port outfit that is slowly regaining its mojo.
It may not be pretty, but expect Port to continue their purple patch and outlast the Swans in a scrappy grind, slowly crawling their way to victory.
Prediction: Port Adelaide by 17 points.
Connor Scanlon
Collingwood v St Kilda
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
Things don’t get much easier for the Saints after losing to the Dogs by 72 last week as they meet the ladder-leading Magpies who have had a week off.
On paper, this battle of 1st v 14th is a mismatch, and looking at just about every metric, it will play out in Collingwood’s favour.
But footy isn’t played on paper, and with coach Ross Lyon at the helm, the Saints will hope that they can turn this into a tough defensive slog.
They were able to beat the Magpies the last times the teams met early in 2024, and their best hope of repeating that is holding this Collingwood side to less than 70 while shutting down the likes of Nick and Josh Daicos with some strong tags both in the middle and up forward.
For the Magpies, if their defence holds up and their offensive ball movement gets going for any longer than a quarter, they should have enough firepower to get the job done.
The reason why the Magpies are so clear ahead on top of the ladder has been their ability to simply win all of the games they should have this season while also performing well against fellow contenders. If that continues, they won’t drop this one against a St Kilda side that has enough flaws for coach Craig McRae to go to work on.
The Saints have the ability to make this one tight, but the Magpies should simply be too strong across the board.
Prediction: Collingwood by 24 points.
Lachlan Geleit
GWS v Gold Coast
Sunday - 1:10pm AEST - ENGIE stadium
History says GWS. Recent form says Gold Coast.
Since 2015, the Giants have dominated this matchup, winning 13 of their last 14 games against the Suns, but this might be the year the tide turns.
Gold Coast are sitting pretty in sixth on the ladder with two games in hand and a near full-strength squad, while GWS have stumbled through a rollercoaster season that’s seen them beat powerhouses like Collingwood, Geelong, and Brisbane, but fall short to Port, Freo and Sydney.
The Giants will be without a host of key players, including All-Australian defender Sam Taylor, Brent Daniels, Kieren Briggs and Callan Ward. However, the possible return of captain Toby Greene and Jake Stringer could boost the Giants squad.
For the Giants to win, they’ll need to take advantage of their elite ball use. GWS average the fourth most disposals in the competition and lead the league in disposal efficiency. It’s a direct contrast to the Suns, who average the third fewest disposals, only above Richmond and West Coast.
But that doesn’t mean Gold Coast don’t make their touches count. They are elite at moving the ball quickly and directly, and rank 6th in the league for scoring shots per game (26.3). If they get clean inside 50 entries, which they usually do, they’ll give the Giants' undermanned defence headaches.
The Suns will also be boosted by a freshened squad thanks to coming off the bye, and they could also see the potential return of Lachie Weller.
GWS games have been difficult to predict all year, and despite their strong historical record, Gold Coast's 2025 form and speed around the ground make them a serious threat. With that the Suns should come out on top against an inconsistent Giants.
Prediction: Gold Coast by 23 points.
Connor Scanlon
Western Bulldogs v Richmond
Sunday - 3:20pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
The Western Bulldogs enter this Sunday night fixture fresh off a 72-point demolition job of St Kilda when piling on their highest score (132) of the season.
It marked the return of Sam Darcy who kicked 3.2 from 19 touches and nine marks in a performance that would have Doggies fans feeling pretty good about themselves.
Add to that the outrageous form of Ed Richards, plus strong contributions from the likes of Rory Lobb, Bailey Williams, Matt Kennedy, Adam Treloar and Joel Freijah, among others, and it’s looking good for Luke Beveridge right now.
Richmond, on the other hand, enter fresh off a bye which came on the back of a 44-point defeat to Sydney.
The rebuilding Tigers have surprised many by winning three games and almost winning two others. It appears as though the regeneration is going to plan on face value.
However, they’ve recently struggled against the Dogs who have enjoyed two smashing victories in the past two seasons. It was a 91-point result at the MCG in Round 9 last year after a 55-point triumph in Round 21, 2023. The Dogs have also won three in a row (including by five points in Round 4 of 2023).
While Adem Yze’s Tigers will be eager to give a better account of themselves after a week off pondering the subpar Swans performance, it’s almost impossible to tip them against the Doggies at Marvel.
The Bulldogs have a penchant for kicking massive scores under the roof and belting lower-ranked teams. They get that setup on Sunday and it should all be academic from there.
Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 40 points.
Andrew Slevison
