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Sport Nation
Who will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Round 14
SEN • June 12th, 2025 2:28 pm
Round 14 action commences on Thursday night with the Saints facing the Dogs at Marvel Stadium.
It's the first game of the third weekend of mis-season bye rounds, with four teams sitting out.
Friday sees Hawthorn and Adelaied meet in a potential top-four shaping clash, while Saturday sees the Lions v Giants and Bombers v Cats.
Sunday has two fixtures with Port v Dees and Eagles v Blues facing off.
The bye teams in Round 14 are: Collingwood, Gold Coast, Richmond and Sydney.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
St Kilda v Western Bulldogs
Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
A must-win game for two sides dwelling just outside the top eight.
The Saints will be desperate to attack the second half of the season, given their 5-7 record and inconsistent football has only just left them in with a sniff of finals football.
Having said that, the Bulldogs have just as much to play for, sitting in ninth place despite playing some top-quality football.
For the Saints, their season is far from over, sitting just two games out of the eight with five wins from 12 games.
Entering off the bye in Round 13, the Saints carry slight momentum after downing the Demons in Alice Springs before hitting their scheduled break.
Star back-flanker Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera has been uber impressive despite rumours surrounding his future, while two-time All-Australian Jack Sinclair lines up for his 200th AFL game.
For the Dogs, even though they’re coming off a flat loss to Hawthorn, they welcome back superstar forward Sam Darcy, who no doubt makes the side a different prospect inside 50.
It’s also the second time these sides have faced off this season. The Dogs won the Round 6 encounter by 71 points. In that game they dominated on-ball, winning 44 clearances to 23, resulting in 69 inside 50s to 31. An old-fashioned thumping.
Having seen how these sides match up only a couple of months ago, expect the Dogs to bounce back from a poor patch of form.
Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 28 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
Hawthorn v Adelaide
Friday - 7:40pm AEST - UTAS Stadium
One of the hardest games to pick in recent memory.
Both teams are very evenly matched, and both have sneaky premiership aspirations. While the Crows are in better form than the Hawks, this game is in Launceston. As much of a 50-50 as you’ll see.
Even though the Hawks are 1-3 in their last four, they found some form in Round 13, beating the Bulldogs by 22 points.
Hawthorn tightened up defensively against the Dogs, allowing just 59 points against. They’ll want to do that again in this one against an Adelaide offence that can be white-hot.
For the Crows, they’ve had some easy kills recently but franked that form with a massive home victory against premiership fancies Brisbane last Friday night. While the Crows were helped by some inaccuracy from the Lions in wet weather, it could be the win they needed to have to really assert themselves as a premiership contender.
Sitting 9-4 through 13 games, if they can knock the Hawks off in Tassie, then their status as a flag threat will be well and truly confirmed.
Adelaide’s key to victory is inside 50, while Hawthorn’s is probably getting on top in the middle and getting their small forwards to go to work.
Even though Adelaide is performing incredibly, where this game is played probably tips it just into Hawthorn’s favour as they’ve won their last seven at UTAS Stadium.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 10 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Brisbane v GWS
Saturday - 1:20pm AEST - Gabba
Brisbane has endured a tricky, stop-start section of the season since the round 9 draw with North Melbourne. The Lions have won just two of their past five, most recently going down to the Crows in Adelaide in dramatic fashion. The five-point defeat reads as a missed opportunity given they kicked eight behinds in the final term to Adelaide’s five goals straight. But Chris Fagan’s Lions weren’t devoid of chances and that will give them hope as they strive to keep in touch with Collingwood, the pacesetters at the top.
Similarly to the Lions, the Giants are dealing with a rollercoaster of emotions in their topsy-turvy campaign to date. Tipped by many to seriously contend in 2025, Adam Kingsley’s side has experienced some serious speed humps. The most recent came in the form of a 16-point home loss to Port Adelaide when they were stifled significantly after half-time. Before that they were lucky to beat Richmond and were defeated comfortably by Fremantle a fortnight prior. They’re in the middle of a lean patch, but they’ve still picked up two wins in their past three which lends hope.
This is a massive fixture in the context of the season. The Lions need to rediscover their best football as they launch their assault on potential back-to-back premierships. The Giants are also well below their best but can often deliver when their backs are to the wall and on the road. They’ve got form at the Gabba, beating the Lions there in round 22 last year. But after last weekend’s near miss - when perhaps they should have won - the Lions will be determined to bounce back in style at home.
Prediction: Brisbane by 12 points.
Andrew Slevison
Essendon v Geelong
Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - MCG
The Bombers have been playing with plenty of heart and gusto in recent weeks.
Undermanned to within an inch of their lives, the Dons have given a good account of themselves since the 91-point drubbing at the hands of the Bulldogs in Round 10.
They defeated Richmond, pushed Brisbane all the way and did similarly against Carlton last Sunday night.
Brad Scott has them playing with spirit and they’ve been good value for an upset over the last fortnight, only to narrowly miss on both occasions.
This weekend they are forced to face one of the competition’s best sides in Geelong, fresh off four straight wins.
The Cats ground out a hard-fought 24-point triumph over the Suns in the wet and will be battle-hardened heading into the 2025 edition of the Country Game.
Max Holmes was immense with 40 touches last week, helped by Tom Atkins and Mark O’Connor, and that midfield could be further boosted by the return of Bailey Smith. The fact the Bombers are without suspended midfielder in Sam Durham is a major blow for them.
While the Dons will do everything in their power to make life tough for the Cats, it’s hard to see them causing an upset given their personnel woes.
Chris Scott’s Geelong side is so difficult to break down and he’ll likely make it a tricky proposition for his twin brother.
The Cats will rightly enter as firm favourites and really should be getting the job done as they go about plotting yet another top-four finish.
Prediction: Geelong by 28 points.
Andrew Slevison
North Melbourne v Fremantle
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Optus Stadium
The Dockers are eyeing four straight victories here as the finals race heats up.
After a shaky start to the year, the Dockers have banked three impressive wins in a row, defeating the Giants, Port Adelaide and Gold Coast. They now find themselves just inside the top 8, and with finals firmly in sight, they can’t afford a slip-up here.
And they shouldn’t slip-up against North Melbourne, at least on paper. Playing a young and developing Kangaroos side at Optus Stadium, Fremantle will be expected to keep their momentum rolling and chalk up a fourth straight win. Anything else could be detrimental to their season.
Even though North may be coming off a rare win over fellow cellar-dwellers West Coast, it wasn’t a performance that will scare the Dockers. Still, one area where the Roos have been surprisingly elite is ball use. They sit second in the AFL for disposal efficiency, and if they’re to cause an upset, that strength will need to shine again.
The only problem? Fremantle are right up there too, ranking fourth for disposal efficiency. The difference is, the Dockers have turned that polish into points and results. This could be a battle of possession and control, where clean ball movement decides the outcome.
Fremantle’s midfield group has looked sharp in recent weeks, and the potential return of Jaeger O’Meara, Michael Walters, Karl Worner and Isiah Dudley only strengthens their options. While North could be without Charlie Comben, but may regain Jackson Archer.
Fremantle will be fit and firing after coming off their bye, and with finals pressure now bearing down, the Dockers should be too composed, clinical, and strong for North Melbourne.
Prediction: Fremantle by 37 points.
Connor Scanlon
Port Adelaide v Melbourne
Sunday - 3:20pm AEST - Adelaide Oval
If there’s one thing we’ve learned about Port Adelaide this season, it’s that we’ve learned nothing at all.
They’ve been the AFL’s ultimate wildcard - winning three in a row after Round 5, then losing four straight in awful fashion, only to bounce back with a statement win over the Giants last week. When they’re good, they’re electric. When they’re off, they vanish. That volatility makes them one of the hardest teams to tip, especially against a Melbourne side finally stringing together some form.
The Demons have turned things around after a horror start, winning six of their last eight after opening the season with five consecutive losses. Their recent defeats have come with positives though. They lost to St Kilda only due to wasteful goal kicking, and lost to the ladder-leading Collingwood by only 1 point. So, while the scoreboard hasn’t always reflected it, Melbourne are playing some of their best footy of 2025.
Historically, this matchup delivers. The last three games between these sides have been decided by 7 points or less, and there’s every reason to expect another nail-biter.
Port will be hopeful of regaining Jason Horne-Francis, whose explosiveness could prove crucial in the midfield, and Melbourne should field a near full-strength squad, minus Jack Viney and Charlie Spargo.
To be honest, the winner of this game will come down to something far more basic - accuracy. Both teams have struggled badly in front of goal this year. Port sit dead last in the league for goal efficiency, and Melbourne isn’t much better at 14th. Whichever side can convert their chances will almost certainly walk away with the points.
At home, Port are always a threat, but they remain a mystery box. Melbourne’s recent consistency gives them the edge, but not by much. Who will be more accurate in front of goal?
Prediction: Melbourne by 9 points.
Connor Scanlon
West Coast v Carlton
Sunday - 6:10pm AEST - Optus Stadium
This game is the second time in recent memory that Carlton head over to Perth to face West Coast where we’re not all that certain that they’ll win.
Last time it was Round 23 of the 2024 season, and while the Blues lost five of six heading into it, they were able to prevail by 65 points. That should provide them some real confidence, even though they enter this with losses in three of their last five.
While the Eagles are 1-12 and are in no way ‘tippable’ their two most recent games at Optus Stadium prove that this could be somewhat of a battle. In Round 10, they picked up their only win of the season against St Kilda by 28 points, and two weeks later in Round 12, they pushed trailed Geelong by just one goal seven minutes into the last quarter.
If they’re any hope, they’ll need to match the Blues in the midfield – something that’s easier said than done – and keep them to a score of 77 or less. The Blues are 5-1 when reaching that number and 0-6 when scoring they don’t.
Even though the Eagles aren’t out of this, you’d still be mad to pick them. Carlton should have too much class here.
Prediction: Carlton by 30 points.
Lachlan Geleit
