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Who will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Round 13
SEN • June 5th, 2025 12:40 pm
Round 13 action commences on Thursday night when the returning Western Bulldogs meet a struggling Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium.
It's the first game of the second real weekend of bye rounds, with two teams sitting out.
Friday sees Adelaide and Brisbane meet in potentially one of the games of the season, while Saturday sees 4th v 5th meet in Geelong v Gold Coast at GMHBA Stadium.
Sunday night pits Carlton and Essendon against each other in a blockbuster before the traditional King's Birthday clash between Melbourne and Collingwood on Monday afternoon.
The bye teams in Round 13 are: Fremantle and St Kilda.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn
Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
Entering this weekend off the Round 12 bye, the Bulldogs will be fresh and ready to attack the second half of the season.
An injury-riddled start to 2025 has left the Doggies short of the top eight, however, since the return of captain and star midfielder Marcus Bontempelli they have been as good as any side in the AFL. Falling just short of Geelong at GMHBA in their last outing, the Dogs will look to bounce back swiftly.
A bright start to 2025, the Hawks opened the season with four straight wins as they looked to back up their September charge of last year. However, the wheels have fallen off rather significantly at Hawthorn, losing three straight games including a disappointing 51-point smashing at the hands of Collingwood. Losing all but one game against the current top eight, coach Sam Mitchell will need his side to respond, but in the absence of captain James Sicily, a response may be difficult.
This contest has the potential to develop into a serious eight-pointer come season’s end. Both Hawthorn and the Bulldogs have all the talent and potential to make a deep run into the finals yet find themselves battling it out at the bottom-end of the September cut-off.
Neither side has been able to capitalise in games against the competition’s premier sides, and this clash presents as an opportunity for either to kill off that notion. No Sicily for the Hawks and the Bulldogs off a freshen up is advantage Luke Beveridge and they should have few problems claiming victory at Marvel to leap into the top eight.
Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 32 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
Adelaide v Brisbane
Friday - 7:40pm AEST - Adelaide Oval
Adelaide is coming off one of the most commanding performances of the season. They eviscerated the Swans in Sydney, claiming a dominant 90-point victory on the road.
Matthew Nicks’ side has now won four of their past five and they’ve been doing it in style. The Crows have kicked scores of 110 or more in three of those four wins and are the highest scoring team in the competition.
The last time they hosted the Lions in Adelaide it ended in a thrilling draw in round 9 last year.
The reigning premiers did enough to get over Essendon in Round 12, eventually grinding out an 18-point win. The Lions were tested all night by an undermanned Dons lineup but as all good teams do they eked out a win when not at their best. Chris Fagan will be looking for improvements, however, especially as the Lions embark on a tricky run of fixtures ahead of their Round 16 bye. The Crows present as a difficult opponent this weekend before key matches against GWS and Geelong.
The Crows have some seriously in-form players including Josh Rachele, Jordan Dawson, Izak Rankine and Ben Keays. They’ll need them all, and sundry, firing as they’ve beaten the Lions just once since 2018. But the Lions have Hugh McCluggage and Lachie Neale in fine fettle.
Brisbane’s absolute best wins this but it’s hard to be confident they’ll bring their absolute best as they continue to iron out some kinks. While the Crows haven’t got a flash record against top teams of late, they are playing supreme footy right now and could claim a massive scalp on home soil.
Prediction: Adelaide by 10 points.
Andrew Slevison
Richmond v Sydney
Saturday - 1:20pm AEST - MCG
If you looked at this fixture a few months ago, you’d expect both teams to be at opposite ends of the ladder.
Instead heading into Round 13, these teams are separated by just two spots, and Richmond enters as the most in-form of the two.
The Tigers' most recent result came against GWS where they led for almost the entire game before falling at the final hurdle. They had seven more scoring shots and 11 more inside 50s but were unable to hang on for a famous win on the road.
Meanwhile, Sydney last went down by a whopping 90 points to Adelaide at home on the celebration of the club's 2005 premiership. It was an embarrassing defeat.
Even though the Swans won the clearance count last week, they were smashed by the Crows on the spread, ultimately losing inside 50s by 25, while giving up 10 more scoring shots.
If Richmond can use the wide expanses of the MCG to their advantage, this is where they’ll hope to punish a Sydney side that’s out of sorts. Sydney will hope that their star midfielders Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner are too hot to handle for a Richmond on-ball unit that’s solid - especially after the return of Dion Prestia - but is without real x-factor.
If Heeney and Warner can impact forward of centre, that’s probably also Sydney’s ticket to kicking a real winning score.
Despite everything going against the Swans right now, they deserve to enter as favourites, partly because of where both sides are at in their development timelines.
Even though the pick is Sydney, it wouldn’t stun if the Tigers were able to cause another MCG upset as they did when the teams met at the venue last season.
Prediction: Sydney by 20 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Geelong v Gold Coast
Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - GMHBA Stadium
The return of Patrick Dangerfield will bolster this side further and makes this a much more daunting task for the Suns. Scoring power has been evident in the Cats this season, having kicked over 100 points in each of their last four games.
It will be difficult to stop that at the ground that suits their style the most. To stay in touch with the top four, and to make it four wins on the trot, this is a game Chris Scott and his troops will have highlighted in their calendars.
A win here for the Suns would see them sitting comfortably in the top four, a game clear of fifth. In saying that, an unexpected loss to Fremantle on the Gold Coast last week is not ideal preparation heading into a trip away to a venue they historically struggle at.
It will take a Damien Hardwick coaching masterclass to overcome the might of Geelong at GMHBA; but if there’s a year where they can do it, it’s this one.
Fourth coming up against fifth is enticing in prospect but Geelong at home takes the challenge to another level for the Suns. In the last four encounters between these sides at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong have won all four with an average margin of 73 points.
A competitive showing from Gold Coast will be enough to prove they aren’t the basket-case away from home that they used to be. 96 marks a game for Geelong and 75 marks a game for the Suns tells the story of where this game will be won.
If the Cats control the ball then the Suns will struggle in not very Queensland-like conditions.
Prediction: Geelong by 28 points.
Ethan Clark
GWS v Port Adelaide
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Manuka Oval
The Giants are quietly turning Canberra into a fortress.
Having won four of their last five in Canberra, GWS will be brimming with confidence heading into this clash against a struggling Port Adelaide outfit.
The Power are sitting at 15th, and have lost three of their last four games by 49 points or more. They look rattled in Ken Hinkley’s last season at the helm, and with the Giants having knocked them off in their past two encounters, the signs aren’t exactly pointing to a bounce-back.
The Giants on the other hand have three wins from their past four games, including a gutsy comeback against Richmond last week. It seems that the Giants are quietly building the sort of momentum that could secure them a top eight finish, but they'd want to avoid what they put up for three quarters against the Tigers when completely outplayed by a bottom side.
GWS do have a few issues. Unfortunately, club legend Callan Ward’s season, and potentially his career is over. Additionally, ruckman Kieren Briggs, midfielders Finn Callaghan and Stephen Coniglio and forward Jake Stringer are all sidelined. In positive injury news, Brent Daniels could return after a two-month layoff, injecting some pace and polish into the forward half.
Port could also regain a few handy names of their own with Kane Farrell, Darcy Byrne-Jones, Esava Ratugolea and Josh Sinn all in the selection frame. But they’ll still be without key players like Jason Horne-Francis, Todd Marshall, Jack Lukosius, and Lachie Jones.
The Giants’ main weapon lies in their ball-hunting. They rank second in the competition for total disposals, with Lachie Whitfield, Tom Green and Lachie Ash all among the top five individually. Expect GWS to dominate time in possession and wear Port Adelaide down.
Port Adelaide ranks 16th for scoring, so if they are to win, they will have to keep the game a low-scoring affair. But that’s easier said than done against a Giants side sitting eighth for points scored.
As the Giants injury list piles up and last week’s close shave against Richmond raise some question marks, expect this matchup to be much closer than expected. However, GWS still look a class above Port, and playing on a deck they’ve made their own will only favour the Giants here.
Prediction: GWS by 21 points.
Connor Scanlon
North Melbourne v West Coast
Sunday - 3:20pm AEST - Hands Oval
The battle of the bottom 2 in Bunbury!
You wouldn’t expect to find this one topping many highlight reels, but don’t be fooled, this clash has quietly built into one of the AFL’s closest rivalries in recent years.
North Melbourne and West Coast have sat firmly at the wrong end of the ladder for three straight seasons, combining for just 21 wins from their last 158 games.
But when these two sides meet, it’s anything but predictable. Their last four encounters have all been decided by nine points or less, and with this one being played at a neutral venue, it makes it even more unpredictable. As a matter of fact, Hands Oval is hosting its first ever AFL premiership match.
For the Roos, their key to victory is clear - efficiency. Despite their position on the ladder, North rank fifth in the competition for both disposal and goal efficiency. If they can stick to that tidy ball movement, they’ll be a great chance to win this.
West Coast, on the other hand, just need to run out a game. Too often this season they’ve been competitive for a half, sometimes even three quarters, only to fall asleep. The same happened against Geelong last Sunday night. A full four-quarter effort is non-negotiable if they’re going to give their fans something to cheer about.
In terms of team news, the Kangaroos are relatively healthy, with no major absentees from their best 22. West Coast’s injury list though, tells a much gloomier story. Jeremy McGovern, Dom Sheed, Elliot Yeo, Jake Waterman and Matt Owies are all sidelined, and to make matters worse Liam Ryan could be out as well. In better news for the Eagles, Jamie Cripps and Bailey Williams could return.
It’s an extremely tough matchup to tip – a proper 50/50. But North are coming off a bye, which could prove to be the edge in what should be another nail-biter between these two rebuilding sides.
Prediction: North Melbourne by 7 points.
Connor Scanlon
Carlton v Essendon
Sunday - 7:20pm AEST - MCG
Traditional rivals meet in what is fast becoming a key fixture on the footy calendar - Sunday night. King’s Birthday eve. MCG.
Carlton enter this off the bye after having some time to work on their game and the issues surrounding a disappointing 4-7 first half of the campaign.
Once again the Blues are in the headlines for all the wrong reasons and it’s on coach Michael Voss and his staff to fix things. Of course, plenty of responsibility falls to the players as well and they’ll be intent on commencing their run towards September.
Brad Scott’s Essendon has put together a handy five-week block which includes three wins and two defeats. One of those was a 91-point blowout against the Dogs. The other was an 18-point loss to the Lions in Brisbane which was full of merit given how undermanned they were.
While the Dons sit above the Blues with a 6-5 record, it feels like they’ve got nothing to lose given the vastly different expectations on both clubs and the ballooning medical room at The Hangar.
The Bombers will likely give a very good account of themselves on the big stage, but if the expectation at Carlton is still to play finals then the Blues simply must win this.
The odds shouldn’t be so one-sided (the Blue are fairly short favourites), but they really should get the job done if they want to be taken seriously.
Prediction: Carlton by 13 points.
Andrew Slevison
Melbourne v Collingwood
Monday - 3:20pm AEST - MCG
The Big Freeze returns for another year, and it looks as though the weather conditions will represent the name of the game quite nicely.
As things stand, it’s just about impossible to pick against Collingwood. They look the best team in it defensively, while their efficiency with ball in hand has been a sight to behold.
As a result, the Demons will probably like the sound of wet weather and hope that it evens things up for them, with Collingwood’s class perhaps affected as a result.
While the Dees went down last week to the Saints in the Red Centre, they perhaps could have won with more efficiency, kicking a ghastly 7.21 from 17 more inside 50s. And their form prior to that was quite strong with five wins from six games. Still, they’ll need their best performance of the season if they’re to get over a Collingwood side that’s on top of the ladder with an impressive percentage of 136.9.
Melbourne’s key to victory will be big games from Max Gawn and Kysaiah Pickett - the latter no doubt is their x-factor player. They’ll also need their defence to hold up against an incredibly even Collingwood forward line.
The Magpies will just hope that they can continue implementing their game plan and team defence. If they do that again here, they win.
Collingwood have also won 10 of their last 12 against Melbourne, and you’d expect that to become 11 of their last 13 once this is said and done.
Prediction: Collingwood by 26 points.
Lachlan Geleit
