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In-stadium commentary at Mt SmartWho will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Round 11
SEN • May 22nd, 2025 12:53 pm
Round 11 action commences on Thursday night when Geelong host the Western Bulldogs in a highly-anticipated clash at GMHBA Stadium.
It's the first game of the second week of Sir Doug Nicholls Round, which began in Round 10.
Friday sees the Dons meet the Tigers in their traditional Dreamtime at the 'G clash, while Saturday has some mouthwatering games including Hawthorn v Brisbane at the MCG.
Sunday sees some intriguing games for teams that must pick up a win if they're to begin pushing for a top eight spot.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
Geelong v Western Bulldogs
Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - GMHBA Stadium
Geelong have yet again established themselves as one of the AFL’s premier sides following their 76-point mauling of Port Adelaide in Round 10.
Having already faced top-half sides in Brisbane, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Collingwood and GWS, the Cats’ 6-4 record is far more impressive than what meets the eye.
On the other hand, the Bulldogs are comfortably the hottest side in the AFL right now, having won four of their last five games since the return of captain Marcus Bontempelli.
With their last four wins coming in at an average margin of 71 points - and an average for score of 124.5 - the Dogs’ elite midfield and dominant forward half has only been managed by the Suns since returning to full strength, falling by just 10 points in Darwin.
Their 91-point demolition of the Bombers in Round 10 will leave them with great confidence, particularly off the back of Bailey Dale’s record breaking 49-disposal haul.
Off the field, the back and forth between these two sides sets up a highly emotional, heated battle in Geelong.
Bailey Smith's post-game comments and Marcus Bontempelli's on-air response has set up what is destined to be a fiery contest that may just work in the Bulldogs' favour.
Football wise, both teams enter in very strong form, presenting as two of the competitions’ best after major wins last weekend.
Losing Patrick Dangerfield is sure to hurt the Cats, particularly given this contest is bound to be tight, while Smith is sure to receive his fair share of attention across the night.
Beyond the Cats' good form, the Bulldogs have been comfortably the competition's best team since returning to near full strength. Dominating from the midfield with stars all across the ground, Luke Beveridge has his men humming.
The Cats are good, however the Dogs are better, and despite Geelong’s home ground advantage, the Western Bulldogs have the chance to flex their muscles on Thursday night.
Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 11 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
Essendon v Richmond
Friday - 7:40pm AEST - MCG
Essendon couldn’t have been worse against the Bulldogs last weekend. Their 91-point loss was their second heaviest defeat of the last six seasons.
Champion Data tells us that the Dons attempted 99 tackles and only stuck 46 against the Dogs. So you can be assured that Brad Scott will have them firing in that area for Dreamtime. The positive thing is: the last five times the Dons have lost by 40 or more points they have won the following match.
Richmond was agonisingly close to a fourth win in 2025, however, fell short against North Melbourne last Sunday. They allowed the Roos to kick six first-quarter goals but were solid defensively thereafter. They will lose chief key defender Noah Balta to his court-imposed curfew for this Dreamtime clash though.
The improving Tigers are playing some solid footy under Adem Yze but there will undoubtedly be some hiccups along the way.
Essendon’s two straight Dreamtime wins have been super competitive clashes, bringing the head-to-head back to 12-8 in favour of the Tigers. The Bombers ground out a 12-point win in round 11 last year with Jordan Ridley (currently sidelined) dominant in winning the Yiooken Award.
It was just a matter of a few weeks ago that Scott’s Dons were being lauded for their sturdy defence, which was infiltrated last weekend, and must improve. The Tigers’ best can win this but the inexperienced group, without Tom Lynch (concussed), might come up short.
Prediction: Essendon by 14 points.
Andrew Slevison
Carlton v GWS
Saturday - 12:35pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
Just as it felt like Carlton was back in some sort of groove, a familiar loss to Sydney last week welcomed back the enduring doubt. You’d imagine the Blues would be much more comfortable if this was at the MCG with just one win from their last four at Marvel coming against North Melbourne.
Jesse Hogan v Jacob Weitering is mouth-watering and worth the price of admission alone. While the battle at the other end and in the midfield holds just as much intrigue. 12:35pm on a Saturday is a time these Blues would be rather unfamiliar with so the first term may show if they’ve come to play or not.
GWS will be without gun Finn Callaghan (shoulder) and the handy Toby McMullin (concussion) as their injury list starts to build. All this comes during a form slump of late, with just one win in their last five.
A solid win on the road to regain some of their early-season confidence is key here. Just two wins in their last seven clashes at Marvel Stadium makes for tough reading; but one of these wins was over Carlton by 32 points. They have the capability if they bring their A-game.
Will GWS lift for Toby Greene’s 250th or will Carlton steady the ship? This is one of a few games this round that is a genuine 50/50 and a result either way would not surprise.
The records of both clubs are less than flattering at Docklands which may cancel out any advantage either way. For the talent on these lists, they have both been disappointing this year.
As we head into the bye rounds, it’s time to find out who has what it takes to stay afloat in the mid-table swell.
Prediction: GWS by 13 points.
Ethan Clark
Hawthorn v Brisbane
Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - MCG
This game looms as a real September preview, but both teams aren’t in the form they’d like to be come season’s end.
Hawthorn are 3-3 over the last six weeks, and their most recent victories have come against West Coast, Richmond and Melbourne, so they’ll be desperate to pick up a big scalp here.
For the Lions, they’ve won seven of their 10 games but have drawn to North Melbourne and lost to Melbourne in their last two, both teams they would have expected to dominate.
Both of Brisbane’s last two down results have come with them leading at three-quarter time. The Hawks will want to try and push them to play four quarters here at the ‘G to test if they can go the distance.
Brisbane’s advantage comes with their depth on ball and with their forward spread, while Hawthorn’s small forwards could have a field day if conditions suit.
Even though the Lions have been strong in recent years, the Hawks have stunningly won their last five against Chris Fagan’s side, and they’ll go in favourites here.
This game being at the ‘G certainly won’t affect Brisbane as it has previously, with the Lions putting their demons at the ground away in recent seasons, particularly in the 2024 finals campaign.
In saying that, the Hawks playing at home probably swings this one their way, much as it would for Brisbane if this game was at the Gabba.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 9 points.
Lachlan Geleit
North Melbourne v Collingwood
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
It’s the second worst defence against the best defence in the competition. This should really only be going one way.
Collingwood’s first 10 games of the season have almost been flawless. Despite a rough start away to the Giants, the Pies have been hands down the number one team in the competition thus far and are not showing any signs of slowing down.
Meanwhile for the Roos, a win against the Tigers last week broke a grim seven-week stretch where they weren’t able to register a victory. A feat that a few would’ve been surprised to hear after seeing their final quarter onslaught against the Demons in Round 2.
The last time these two sides played each other, North Melbourne stunned the footballing world when they lead by as much as 54 points during the third quarter.
It seemed like an upset was almost certain to happen at the point of the match, until the Pies miraculously turned it around to record one of the most famous victories of that season.
Unfortunately for many neutrals, it doesn’t seem like we’ll see the same scenes of a comeback again this time.
North will have their work cut out for them on Saturday night. The Kangaroos are ranked 15th in the league for inside 50s conceded so far this season whilst Collingwood ranks number one for scores per inside 50.
If they can’t control the amount of entries that the Pies get throughout the match, accompanied with the Magpies’ ever so potent forward line, then things could get ugly very quickly.
Prediction: Collingwood by 36 points.
Zac Sharpe
Fremantle v Port Adelaide
Saturday - 8:10pm AEST - Optus Stadium
If either of these sides are going to pull themselves out of the depths of disappointment this season, a hot streak needs to happen soon.
The Dockers have been the epitome of average so far this season, entering the round sitting ninth on the ladder with a 5-5 record and a percentage of 100.1, boasting the 10th best attack and 8th best defence.
It’s been almost impossible to predict what you’ll get from Fremantle on any given week, having put together statement wins over top-four hopefuls such as the Bulldogs and Crows, while also dropping games to the likes of the Saints and Demons.
Not quite as comically middle of the pack, the Power enter the round in a significantly more tenuous position despite just being four points behind the Dockers, having dropped three straight games by an average margin of 57 points.
Safe to say it’s been a far cry from their season-reviving April which saw them claim pivotal victories over the Hawks, Swans and Kangaroos.
With neither side stacking up as particularly dominant on either side of the field, this clash looks to be something more of an arm wrestle than straight up shootout.
The Dockers should be able to handle this sputtering Port side, and with the Power’s track record of being blown out this season, things could get out of hand in a hurry if they’re not up for the fight.
Yet Fremantle’s inconsistency makes this one much less straightforward than it probably should be.
Prediction: Fremantle by 23 points.
Jack Makeham
Adelaide v West Coast
Sunday - 1:10pm AEST - Adelaide Oval
Adelaide huffed and puffed but couldn’t quite blow Collingwood’s house in at the MCG last Saturday.
The Crows kept in touch all day but eventually went under by 10 points in yet another ding dong battle with the Magpies.
Matthew Nicks’ side remained in the eight despite the loss but need to take immediate action this weekend if they are to stick near the top four.
They get West Coast at a very good time given they finally opened their account under Andrew McQualter by beating St Kilda. The desperation for the Eagles to win - having broken their 2025 duck - likely won’t be there, which could see intensity drop.
Having said that, they did win back-to-back matches twice last season so it’s not like they’re going to immediately fold up because they won.
The Crows have a solid 5-1 record at the Adelaide Oval this year and the desire to bounce back will be enormous.
Captain Jordan Dawson is in supreme form, Darcy Fogarty is kicking goals for fun and Izak Rankine is getting plenty of out (despite some crucial errors last week), indicating that the Crows brightest stars are in good nick.
Adelaide has won its last five over West Coast by an average margin of 62 points. They’ve kicked cricket scores of 174, 123 and 137 in the past three matchups - two of those being in Adelaide.
On paper it looks academic. We all know that footy works in mysterious ways, but you’d be fairly safe in your assumption that the Crows win this comfortably in the end.
Prediction: Adelaide by 45 points.
Andrew Slevison
Melbourne v Sydney
Sunday - 3:20pm AEST - MCG
Both Melbourne and Sydney enter this game just as their seasons begin to build, but it feels like only one of these sides can be a true finals challenger in 2025.
With both sides sitting at 4-6 off the back of impressive Round 10 wins, it’s an incredibly hard game to pick. Will it be the Demons at home? Or will it be Sydney truly establishing themselves as a threat for the first time in 2025?
Their recent records against each other don’t tell us much, with the sides trading wins over much of the last six years. The Swans also have a pretty indifferent record at the MCG recently, although this is their first trip to the venue since last year’s Grand Final disaster.
With not much splitting the teams off the field, you have to look at matchups. The Demons will back their defence to get the job done against Sydney’s undermanned forward line, and they’ll have a huge aerial advantage with Joel Amartey out suspended.
If the Demons can control the midfield and keep the Swans below 70 in defence, then they probably win.
But as it often is with the Swans, their hopes will rely on their elite kicking and hope that their midfield can really impact the scoreboard. If Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner do what they did last week against Carlton here, Sydney will probably be too strong.
Melbourne’s defence is probably the more bankable product, but Sydney might have too much explosion out of the middle for them to handle.
Expect this one to be tight, but it feels like the Swans at their best could just be a bit too much for Simon Goodwin’s side to handle.
Prediction: Sydney by 10 points.
Lachlan Geleit
St Kilda v Gold Coast
Sunday - 4:40pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
After last week’s disasterclass against West Coast, things are going from bad to worse for the Saints.
They now face the second highest-scoring team in the competition in Gold Coast, and the Suns are starting to look like a genuine premiership threat.
St Kilda’s last two encounters against high-scoring outfits didn’t just end in defeat - they ended in embarrassment. A 71-point loss to the Bulldogs and a 63-point thumping from Adelaide paints a clear picture - the Saints don’t cope well with attacking pressure.
St Kilda’s undersized and injury-hit backline is becoming a weekly problem. Without a recognised key defender, expect the current Coleman Medal leader Ben King to have a field day. He’s every chance to kick a bag against a team that has no clear matchup for him.
Ross Lyon may swing the axe after last week’s humiliation, but with key players like Max King, Dougal Howard, Dan Butler, Zaine Cordy and Paddy Dow all still unavailable, there’s only so much patchwork that can be done.
Gold Coast, on the other hand, are close to full strength and full of confidence. This game shapes up perfectly for them to put the foot down and pile on a big score.
St Kilda’s wild inconsistencies mean that they play on two ends of the spectrum – they either play like a bottom four team or they play like a top four team. However, they usually play on the lower end of the spectrum.
This will probably be a percentage boosting game for the Suns, unless the Saints put on one of their rare and random top four performances.
Prediction: Gold Coast by 52 points.
Connor Scanlon
