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Find your Sport Nation frequencyWho will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Round 10
SEN • May 15th, 2025 3:00 pm
Round 10 action commences on Thursday night when Gold Coast hosts Hawthorn in Darwin.
It's the first game of Sir Doug Nicholls Round, which will take place over the next fortnight.
Friday sees the Swans host the Blues in a big SCG clash, while Saturday sees every game take place between real finals contenders.
Sunday sees the bottom three sides take to centre stage as they try and pull themselves up by their bootstraps.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
Gold Coast v Hawthorn
Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - TIO Stadium
The Suns have put themselves in a fairly strong position on the back of a gritty win over the barnstorming Western Bulldogs. As a result, Damien Hardwick’s side now owns a 6-2 record and the strongest percentage (135.68) in the competition.
Ben King continues to kick goals at will with his 27 leading the Coleman race heading into round 10. With captain Noah Anderson and the likes of milestone man Touk Miller and off-season recruits Daniel Rioli and John Noble in top form, there is a bit to like about the Suns in 2025.
The Hawks have won three on the trot to entrench themselves in the top four. It took them a while to shake off the Demons but they did so with a six-goal final term to get the chocolates by 35 points. James Worpel played his best game of the season with 28 touches and 10 tackles, while Changkuoth Jiath was one of the best for a second week in a row.
They’re chasing four wins in a row for the second time this season, but they will have to do it with five changes as Tom Barrass, Need Reeves, Jack Scrimshaw, Cam Mackenzie and Calsher Dear, for his first game of the season, all set to return.
They will manage veteran leading goal kicker Jack Gunston and in-form ruckman Lloyd Meek, while Jarman Impey (personal), Luke Breust (back)and Henry Hustwaite (omitted) all make way.
Last weekend’s triumph over the Doggies was the seventh successive time the Suns have saluted in Darwin. It certainly has become their home away from home, assimilating to the conditions with consummate professionalism. Their defensive profile is also one of the best in the league.
The Hawks are winning games of footy by comfortable margins - and you can’t argue with that - but they’ll have to improve overall to claim this scalp. The Suns love TIO Stadium and should make it eight on the trot at the venue.
It won’t be easy, however.
Prediction: Gold Coast by 12 points.
Andrew Slevison
Sydney v Carlton
Friday - 7:40pm AEST - SCG
Sydney are yet to deliver off the back of their 2024 minor premiership. Just three wins from their first nine games under new coach Dean Cox, the Swans sit in 14th place as their struggle to find form continues.
Plagued by injuries to a number of key first-team players, the Swans will be eager for the return of sorely missed talent, as captain Callum Mills and forward Joel Amartey look set to take the field after stints on the sidelines.
Last week’s loss to the Bombers will hurt, but they will look to bounce back.
Carlton have got their season back on track, winning four of their last five games after a four-week winless start. When healthy, the Blues have showed signs of a top-quality team, with wins over Geelong and St Kilda suggesting they have what it takes to compete with strong opposition.
However, their 60-point loss to Adelaide suggests they remain a step behind the best. Just one win out of the top eight, the Blues will be eager to carry on their good form.
These two sides enter this clash as the models of inconsistency. Both teams are capable of putting up dominant performances, however, have struggled to carry their best football week to week. Carlton’s recent run will provide them with confidence, managing to hold off charging opposition in two of their last three games.
As for the Swans, their inability to close out games, particularly with their woes in front of goal, is bound to play a part. Sydney are strong at the SCG, but the Blues might have too much for the undermanned Swans.
Prediction: Carlton by 17 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
Collingwood v Adelaide
Saturday - 1:20pm AEST - MCG
The league’s best defence versus what many consider the league’s best offence. This looms as the game of the round.
After starting 7-2, just about everyone is considering Collingwood as a genuine premiership threat in 2025, and Adelaide at 6-3 can also join the conversation with a massive scalp here.
As the underdogs, Adelaide’s best chance at winning this game is if their tall forwards fire, much as they have done for most of the season. They get a great opportunity to do that here as well, with Collingwood’s two first-choice key backs Darcy Moore and Reef McInnes out.
One thing that could play into Collingwood’s favour is the wet and cold conditions that are expected at the MCG. If this turns into a ground level game and more of a defensive struggle, the Magpies have the advantage, particularly at home.
For Adelaide, what and who they need to stop is Nick Daicos. The young star has filled up almost every time he’s faced the Crows. If he goes big again, don’t expect the Magpies to fall short.
Collingwood have also won all of their last nine against Adelaide, but five of those last six victories have come by five or fewer points.
It feels like this one could also be close, but the tip has to be Collingwood given what they’ve shown this year while playing just about every good team through to this stage.
Adelaide is well and truly a shot, but it would be an upset if they were to prevail.
Prediction: Collingwood by 22 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Port Adelaide v Geelong
Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - Adelaide Oval
Two losses on the trot will have Ken Hinkley on edge ahead of this clash. But despite going down last week in the Showdown, the Power were gallant and can take plenty of positives.
The midfield is firing while Jeremy Finlayson and Mitch Georgiades posed threats up forward last week and will be a handful for Geelong. Currently 13th on the ladder, the Power will have to start pulling out some big performances soon before the season gets away from them. Willie Rioli is also available after stepping aside from last weekend's Showdown.
Adelaide Oval is a daunting road trip for some, but not for Geelong who have won their last four games at the venue, including six of the last seven.
The potential returns of Tom Stewart, Jack Henry and Lawson Humphries makes for daunting reading for Port Adelaide and further strengthens this Cats side, particularly in defence which is much needed after giving up 105 points to GWS last week. It would be a shock for a Chris Scott-led side to lose two in a row for the second time this year in 10 rounds, so I expect a return to order for the ever-reliable hoops.
Geelong won’t struggle at the venue and Port Adelaide are in a confidence slump. Both coming off losses and both keen to get their seasons going properly, this is must-watch.
We are not even half-way through the season, but it feels if the Power lose finals will be a real uphill battle, while if Geelong lose it will bring them back to the chasing pack a level behind the cream of the crop.
Expecting the Cats to get the job done but Ken always manages to rouse his side for these crucial matchups.
Prediction: Geelong by 24 points.
Ethan Clark
GWS v Fremantle
Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - ENGIE Stadium
This is an underrated season-defining clash for both clubs.
The competition is so tight and GWS and Fremantle both enter Round 10 with finals aspirations teetering on the edge. A loss here could make life difficult.
Fremantle’s past month has been far from convincing. They have dropped games to Melbourne, St Kilda and a depleted Collingwood side. In the pre-season, they were touted as a breakout contender, but the Dockers are once again falling short of expectations.
The Giants, on the other hand, may only sit one win ahead of Fremantle on the ladder, but they enter this matchup with all the momentum after a powerful statement win over Geelong. If the old saying “you’re only as good as your last game” holds any weight, GWS should feel confident here at home.
The last two meetings between these sides have seen the Giants dominate, winning by a combined margin of 79 points. Add in the fact GWS rank second in average disposals this season, compared to Fremantle’s 15th - it’s easy to see how the Giants could pick the Dockers apart with methodical ball movement.
Jesse Hogan, fresh off a seven-goal haul, continues to be a force inside 50. The key forward sits second in the Coleman Medal despite playing just six games, averaging a remarkable four goals per outing. Don’t be surprised if he tears it apart again on Saturday.
A crucial battle looms in the ruck, which could decide the game. With Sean Darcy in doubt after being subbed off last week due to injury, Luke Jackson may be solo-rucking against the reliable Kieren Briggs. Jackson has shown in the past he can thrive in the lead ruck role, and Fremantle will need him at his best if they’re to keep pace.
It should be a hard-fought contest, but based off recent form, the stars are aligning perfectly in favour of the Giants.
Prediction: GWS by 23 points.
Connor Scanlon
Western Bulldogs v Essendon
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
Are Essendon genuinely an improved side?
They’re certainly better than we thought they’d be at 5-3, and a win here would just about solidify those thoughts.
Even though they’ve impressed, they have won against Melbourne, West Coast, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide at home, results that check out. But their win last weekend over Sydney has offered Dons fans some real hope that they could even be a finals smokey.
Their opposition this week will offer a bit more resistance though, with the Bulldogs absolutely one of the league’s most impressive teams even though they sit 5-4, with all of their losses coming in tough battles against September fancies.
Looking at this game from a matchup perspective, the Dogs have the more firepower on-ball and their scoring from stoppage has been immense in 2025. They’ve also conceded the fewest goals to midfielders in the league. A source Essendon rely on.
The Dogs also love playing at Marvel Stadium, winning eight of their last nine at the venue with some huge margins in those victories.
Essendon’s hopes probably sit with them controlling the footy in an uncontested marking fashion and building from defence, much as they did against Sydney.
Even though the Dons are a chance, you’d expect the Dogs to go 10-2 in their last 12 against the red and black here.
Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 30 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Richmond v North Melbourne
Sunday - 1:10pm AEST - MCG
Which rebuilding squad has looked more promising of late?
The Tigers are coming off an exhilarating win in one of the most gripping 16th v 18th clashes we’ve ever seen, holding on for dear life to emerge victorious over West Coast by two points.
They’ll welcome a North Melbourne side fresh off one of the most bizarre results of the season, having played the top of the table Brisbane Lions to an unexpected draw down in Tasmania.
It capped off the Roos’ recent run of just barely missing out on their second win of the season, having lost their Round 7 & 8 matchups by a combined margin of 9 points.
Trips to the ‘G haven’t exactly been smooth for North this decade, not having experienced a win on the game’s biggest stage since Round 9 in 2017 and not having beaten Richmond on their home turf since the 2015 Elimination Final.
While the Tigers are fresh off a win and have claimed more scalps this season, there’s a case to be made that the Roos are currently playing the better brand of football, stacking up significantly better offensively and only marginally worse on the defensive end.
Yet Richmond’s young guns have already shown that they’ve got the ability to close out games and claim the four points, a skill that has been one of the biggest criticisms of North’s extensive rebuild.
Expect this clash to be another surprisingly entertaining affair between two bottom-four sides.
Prediction: Richmond by 7 points.
Jack Makeham
Brisbane v Melbourne
Sunday - 3:20pm AEST - Gabba
Two years ago, this was seen as a top-four clash with massive finals implications on the line for both sides.
Now, we could be in line for an almighty thumping if the visitors aren’t able to keep up with the reigning premiers at the Gabba.
Melbourne’s 2025 season (apart from the three weeks of Round 6 to Round 8) has been nothing short of incredibly disappointing.
Mainly highlighted by their struggling forward line again, their backline and their fitness has been uncharacteristically down in 2025 and has seemingly made it easier for sides to dominate this Dees outfit late, which has been a first for nearly five years.
Melbourne is ranked poorly in the most important stats for Sunday’s game - being scores from turnover and defending scores from turnover.
They’re currently the eighth easiest team to score against off turnover and are ranked 15th when it comes to finding ways to score off turnover themselves.
This recipe couldn’t and shouldn’t end well for the 2021 premiers on Sunday. But with the plethora of talent that they still have at each line, the margin for this match can’t be guaranteed to be astronomical.
As the Demons have shown thus far, for every game they’ve lost bar one, they’ve been in the contest at three quarter time with a chance to win the game.
Yet to counter that, the Lions have been one of the more consistent sides in the competition, winning five of their last eight second halves this season.
It’s going to be tough for the Demons to find a way to get the four points this week. Which unfortunately for them, they desperately need.
And with the Lions coming off a disappointing draw away from home, it could get quite ugly if the Dees trip over at the starting line of this contest and are forced to play catchup for the entirety of the game.
Prediction: Brisbane by 42 points.
Zac Sharpe
West Coast v St Kilda
Sunday - 4:40pm AEST - Optus Stadium
West Coast went agonisingly close to a season-first win against Richmond at the MCG last Sunday.
If not for a last-gasp Tom Brown tackle, the Eagles may have broken their duck under new coach Andrew McQualter.
But they remain winless and in desperate need of saluting for the first time in 2025.
They’ll need to be at their best to overcome Ross Lyon’s St Kilda who gave themselves every chance of beating Carlton last week but ultimately fell short.
The Saints smacked the Dockers by 61 point two weeks back and anything near that type of output will see them over the line on Sunday night.
They have won their last four at Optus Stadium which bodes well for this trip. They have a recent winning record over the struggling Eagles, claiming four on the bounce overall which includes a trio of those Optus triumphs.
While the Eagles are making themselves much harder to play against, it’s hard to see them banking their first victory of the campaign. The Saints have enough class to kick a winning score and the dangling carrot of keeping in touch with the eight is extra motivation.
Prediction: St Kilda by 18 points.
Andrew Slevison
