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The 4 certainties for Richmond versus Carlton
SEN •  March 13th, 2025 6:24 pm
Back for another year, the SEN.com.au team gives you an insight into how every game will play out across the weekend.
Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.
But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.
Here is what we consider certainties for the Round 1 blockbuster between Richmond and Carlton.
Richmond
Short to have 20+ disposals
Jayden Short got a heap of the ball in Richmond’s pre-season loss to Collingwood, racking it up across half-back to finish with 25 touches.
Last season he averaged a tick under 22 disposals per game, however, in his last three against Carlton overall he has picked up just 16, 19 and 17.
But we believe that he will be the go-to man in a Richmond defence that has a few inexperienced players on show in a big season opener.
He’ll also likely take at least a handful of kick-ins so the 20-disposal mark should be well within his sights, which could be jacked up to 25 if you’re feeling a bit loose.
Lalor or Armstrong to kick at least one goal
Tigers debutants Sam Lalor and Harry Armstrong get the chance to show the footy world why they were selected with Picks 1 and 23 respectively in last year’s draft.
Lalor has been named in the forward pocket and should spend a fair bit of time floating around attacking 50, while Armstrong will start as a key forward alongside the returning Tom Lynch.
Even thought the expectation is that the Tigers may struggle against the Blues, we feel that either (or both) of the first gamers will hit the scoreboard and give the Tiger Army something to cheer about.
Andrew Slevison
Carlton
McKay 2+ goals
This one’s pretty simple.
With Charlie Curnow out, McKay will be the obvious target inside 50 against an inexperienced Richmond defence.
We’re also expecting the ball to live in Carlton’s half for large periods of the game, and McKay should get a few looks at goal and finish at least two of them.
He kicked three in last year’s Round 1 clash against the Tigers and he’d hope to have that kind of impact again on Thursday.
O. Hollands 15+ disposals
This is a little bit of a unique one, but Ollie Hollands should be set to get a lot more footy than he did in 2024.
After averaging 14 disposals per game last season on a wing, Hollands has shifted down back in a small defender role with Nic Newman going down with injury.
We all know how much easier ball-winning is in defence as a player that’s trusted by foot compared to a wingman that’s primarily used in a thankless role.
The 21-year-old could see a real bump in his per-game stats this season and that should start on Thursday against Richmond.
Lachlan Geleit
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