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Find your frequency hereDoomsday: How the teams ranked 3-9 can miss the eight
SEN • August 13th, 2025 4:50 pm
The top eight has never been tighter this late into a season.
With only one win separating 2nd to 8th, only one team is truly locked into playing finals this season in ladder-leaders Adelaide, while second-placed Geelong can't realistically finish lower than eighth due to their percentage of 139.8.
Given how far teams can rise and slide on the back of one or two results, we’ve looked forward to Round 23 and 24 to see how each team from 3rd to 9th could miss the eight entirely.
For this exercise, we’re assuming that Port Adelaide (v Suns R24), Essendon (v Suns R24), Richmond (v Cats R24), North Melbourne (v Crows R24) and West Coast (v Dogs R23) don’t beat top nine teams in the last two rounds.
Sydney (v Cats R23), St Kilda (v Giants R23) and Melbourne's (v Hawks R23 & Magpies R24) remaining opponents are considered.
- = No unexpected results occur. E.g. Bulldogs def Eagles.
3 – Collingwood
Remaining games: Adelaide (AO), Melbourne (MCG)
Doomsday – 9th: Lose to both Crows and Dees.
THEN.
R23: Giants def Suns, Hawks def Dees, Dockers def Lions.R24: Giants def Saints, Dogs def Dockers, Lions beat Hawks.
4 – Fremantle
Remaining games: Brisbane (OS), Western Bulldogs (MS).
Doomsday – 9th: Lose to both Lions and Dogs.
THEN.
R23: Hawks def Dees.R24: Giants def Saints.
5 – Brisbane
Remaining games: Fremantle (OS), Hawthorn (Gabba).
Doomsday – 9th: Lose to both Dockers and Hawks.
THEN.
R23: -R24: Giants def Saints.
6 – Gold Coast
Remaining games: GWS (PFS), Port Adelaide (AO), Essendon (PFS).
Doomsday – 9th: Lose to Giants, Power and Bombers.
THEN.
R23/24: Hawks def either Demons or Lions.
7 – Hawthorn
Remaining games: Melbourne (MCG), Brisbane (Gabba).
Doomsday – 9th: Lose to Demons and Lions.
THEN.
R23: -R24: Giants def Saints.
Doomsday – 9th: Beat Demons, lose to Lions.
THEN.
R23: Dockers def Lions, Giants def Suns.R24: Giants def Saints.
8 – GWS
*Remaining games: Gold Coast (PFS), St Kilda (ENGIE).
Doomsday – 9th: Lose to Suns and Saints.
THEN.
R23/24: -
Doomsday – 9th: Beat only one of Suns or Saints
THEN.
R23: Dockers def Lions, Hawks def Demons.R24: Bulldogs def Dockers, Lions def Hawks.
9 – Western Bulldogs
*Remaining games: West Coast (MS), Fremantle (MS).
Doomsday – 9th: Lose to either Eagles or Dockers.
THEN.
R23/24: Hawks and Giants win at least one game each.
