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Deep Dive Golf: Three to bet at 2025 RBC Heritage
David Bieleski • April 16th, 2025 9:58 am
Canadian golfer Corey Conners is one to watch at Harbour Town | Photo: PGA Tour
Emerging from the haze of the most dramatic, traumatic, and enigmatic Masters in recent history, it is perhaps more jarring this year more than most to turn our minds to the RBC Heritage.
And, for many, that haze is further blurred by some teary-eyed reminiscence of what will live in the memory of every golf fan who witnessed Rory McIlroy finally make that history he so richly deserved.
Much is made of the Heritage Classic being granted Signature Event status, ensuring that the best in the world need to pick themselves off the canvas, dust themselves off, and go again the very next week.
After all, only one person wins a golf tournament, which inevitably means nearly 100 others lost. And, when it is an event as special as The Masters, it is certain a few would love to be anywhere else but South Carolina, even if they are playing for $USD20,000,000 this week.
From the PGA Tour's position, I get it. The final round of the 2025 Masters was the most watched since 2018 (yes, even beating Tiger's return to glory in 2019.) The PGA Tour must feel they need to make the most of these opportunities after majors and attempt to capitalise on all those new fans who joined to watch The Masters.
RBC is one of the biggest sponsors of the PGA Tour and support multiple tournaments, with the Signature Event status a further nod to their support.
The Heritage has been held this spot in the schedule after The Masters for the past 40 years. And, there is real legacy here. Arnold Palmer was the inaugural champion. Jack Nicklaus was design consultant to Pete Dye here at Harbour Town, and would win here a few years after Palmer.
So, is the PGA Tour's hand forced into making this a Signature Event? Probably. But, it sure would be nice for us all to have just a bit of a breather after one of the most roller-coaster major final rounds ever to be witnessed.
Harbour Town Golf Links: Course Analysis
This niggly test is as polar opposite to Augusta National in nearly every way you can imagine. Long hitters have often found success at The Masters, with wide-open fairways and driver used often. Greens are large, although the actual target area is reduced substantially given the undulating greens and multiple tiers.
Harbour Town is, instead, a narrow and fiddly test. Driving accuracy off the tee is paramount.
So much so, the golf course ranks in the bottom five for driving distance on the PGA Tour. This is primarily a factor of golfers clubbing down off the tee, emphasising how imperative the pros feel finding the short-stuff is around Harbour Town.
This goes beyond simply finding the fairway to finding the correct portion of the fairway. Hanging trees encroach across the fairways and can often impede players on approach, so finding the right angle is imperative to even allow access to these very small greens.
Those minuscule greens average just 3,700 sq ft at Harbour Town - that is nearly half the size of the immense green complexes experienced last week.
It is inevitable that greens will be missed around this golf course. The small greens also sees a large uptick in Strokes Gained: Around The Green (SG: ATG) as a predictive factor.
Taking a look at the past champions, players such as Matt Fitzpatrick and Jordan Spieth (who was also runner-up in 2023) represent two of the best players on Tour with their short-game creativity.
Given players are then forced to play from similar spots, we see just one predicted approach shot from 50-100 yards and 2 shots from 200+ yards. Consequently, there is a large uptick in approach from 150-200 yards (9 projected approach shots) and 100-150 yards (6 projected approach shots).
This is some of the largest disparity we see on the PGA Tour all year and why Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP) from 100-200 yards is key to success on this golf course.
83% of approach shots will fall within this range, meaning the best players with low-to-mid irons tend to find success on this golf course.
Course Comps Utilised This Week
- Harbour Town Golf Links
- TPC Sawgrass
- Sedgefield Country Club
- Austin Country Club
- TPC River Highlands
- TPC Louisiana
- Sea Island Course
- Wai'alae Country Club
Pete Dye’s iconic course designs feature frequently on the tour. This provides a multitude of options to consider in guidance towards the RBC Heritage.
But, of those, TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship) and Austin Country Club (WGC Matchplay) provide short courses where accuracy and scrambling are essential.
TPC Sawgrass (The Players Championship) is worthy of consideration. Although it doesn't quite match the required approach numbers, strong performances there are noted. Being perhaps Pete Dye's most famous design, it presents danger off the tee not just from trees but the copious water hazards on the golf course.
Sedgefield Country Club maintains links as a positional course where shorter drivers can thrive but driving accuracy is at a premium. Sedgefield is also highly correlated to TPC Sawgrass, with multiple winners having completed that double.
2025 RBC Heritage Betting Tips: Three For Free
Corey Conners: Win 20/1, $21
Selected to go well by me at The Masters as a 66/1 roughie, it was another impressive showing from the Canadian around Augusta National. His 8th place finish is now his 4th instance finishing inside the Top 10 in The Masters.
Selected to go well by me at The Masters as a 66/1 roughie, it was another impressive showing from the Canadian around Augusta National. His 8th place finish is now his 4th instance finishing inside the Top 10 in The Masters.
He rated out 8th for SG: APP in that field, and it is the approach play that makes greatest appeal for me here. Conners rates 3rd for SG: APP from 150-200 yards and 9th for SG: APP from 100-150 yards in this field over the last 12 months.
That approach play is comparable only to Scottie Scheffler within that key distance range. However, Scheffler has looked a little off his game with his irons since returning from his hand injury over Christmas. Which seems bizarre to say given he hasn’t finished outside the Top 25 since his return, and quietly finished 4th last week.
Conners ticks the driving accuracy box as well, rating out 4th in this field over the past 6 months. The other eye-catcher for me is the recent short-game improvement. Typically a weaker area for Conners, he has gained strokes around the green for 6 straight tournaments and for putting in 5 of the last 6. That included moving to a center-shafted putter recently at the encouragement of his father, which paid dividends on the notoriously tricky greens of Augusta National.
Having finished 4th at Harbour Town previously when this was a full field event, and a 6th recently at the Pete Dye designed TPC Sawgrass, I’d not be surprised if he is towards the top end of the leaderboard again this week.
Aaron Rai: 33/1 and DeepDiveGolf Bookie Beater Top 20, $3.00 (was $2.20)
For a golf course that heavily rewards driving accuracy, Aaron Rai ranking 1st in this field for driving accuracy perhaps makes him an obvious choice for consideration.
For a golf course that heavily rewards driving accuracy, Aaron Rai ranking 1st in this field for driving accuracy perhaps makes him an obvious choice for consideration.
Last week was Rai’s debut at The Masters, perhaps surprising given the talent of this 30-year-old. To finish 27thon his first look at that golf course, which often rewards those with prior experience, was only the more impressive given Rai’s lack of distance off the tee.
Rai is one of those former DP World Tour players who I feel would be quite a prolific winner had he remained on that circuit. Probably well demonstrated by the fact he has finished 2nd and 4th in the last two renditions of the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, the flagship event on the DP World Tour.
That is another tree-lined golf course as we see this week. Wentworth has also often gone to some of the best ball-strikers on the DP World Tour, which is a strength of Rai’s game.
14th at The Players a couple starts back, he also won at Sedgefield last August, and has a good record at another Pete Dye design in TPC Louisiana.
Brian Campbell: 225/1 and Top 20, $5.00
Finally, I will spare a few words for the roughest of all roughies in Brian Campbell.
Finally, I will spare a few words for the roughest of all roughies in Brian Campbell.
Fortunate to even be playing in The Masters, largely thanks to a tree in Mexico (I haven’t lost my mind here, go look it up), Campbell duly finished 32nd. Much like Rai, Campbell is hamstrung at that golf course given his lack of distance, so he will be brimming with confidence following that debut.
Ranking 5th in this field for SG: APP from 150-200 yards, just behind Conners and Scheffler, Campbell also rates out well for driving accuracy sitting 8th in this field.
The other factor is that this is a home game for Campbell. He has lived in Hilton Head for many years now, and that local experience may just sneak him somewhere near the Top 20 at odds despite the elite company he finds himself in.
All TAB odds are current at the time of publishing - R18, please gamble responsibly.
For more Deep Dive Golf coverage of the 2025 RBC Heritage, check out his in-depth look at the full betting card on Patreon. Remember to follow Deep Dive Golf on X/Twitter and Facebook.
