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Who wins & why? Tips & predictions for Round 3, 2026
SEN • March 26th, 2026 12:54 pm
Round 3 is here already, but we've only got seven games... again!
Nonetheless, we've scoured the form and come up with our tips and predictions for a fascinating weekend.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
GEELONG v ADELAIDE
Thursday - 7:30pm AEDT - GMHBA Stadium
After an Opening Round smashing at the hands of the Gold Coast Suns, the Cats bounced back against the Dockers, clawing back a 35-point early deficit to avoid a winless start. Serving their bye round in Round 2, Geelong enter tonight’s contest fresh, with James Worpel set to return ahead of his 150th AFL game. Shannon Neale will look to carry his good form after a five-goal haul in Round 1, while Irishman Mark O’Connor also celebrates his 150th.
Adelaide nailed their Round 1 clash with Collingwood, claiming a revenge win at the MCG to kick off their minor premiership defence. However, against a contending Dogs side, the Crows fell just short despite a valiant comeback in the final term. Key defender Jordon Butts played out a superb contest in quelling Sam Darcy, while the return of Izak Rankine will pay dividends in this contest. At 1-1, they travel to Geelong without captain Jordan Dawson (calf), veteran Taylor Walker (managed), recruit Callum Ah Chee and the experienced Rory Laird (calf)
The Crows’ tough early fixtures continue, with the minor premiers taking on a well-rested Geelong side at GMHBA. Incredibly, Adelaide’s record at the Cattery is one of the worst in modern history, winless in Geelong since Round 10, 2003. However, having knocked off Collingwood at the ‘G in Round 1, they’ll carry in some confidence in ending that hoodoo. As for the Cats, a brilliant comeback against Fremantle proved their prowess at home, hardly blinking an eye despite a poor start. Adelaide’s absentees will hurt, and at GMHBA, the fresh Cats should sneak a result in a close one.
Prediction: Geelong by 17 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
COLLINGWOOD v GWS
Friday - 7:40pm AEDT - Marvel Stadium
Collingwood have started the season in decent fashion, starting 1-1 in tight games against St Kilda and Adelaide at the MCG.
They’ve shown that they aren’t ready to drop off entirely, but haven’t shown that they can truly contend yet. They should welcome back key pillars Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe here, perhaps their returns will kickstart the Magpies to become one of the competition’s best defences again. With a fit list to pick from, they’ll enter most games with confidence.
The Giants started 2026 hot with an Opening Round win against Hawks but have since faltered with back-to-back losses to the Bulldogs and Saints. They seem a different side at home compared to away, losing their last two games at Marvel – albeit to the Dogs – by a combined 169 points.
Adam Kingsley’s side has been hit majorly by the injury bug, so they’ll need to dig deep into their depth here to overcome a disciplined Collingwood outfit.
All things being equal, this game would be a 50-50. But with Collingwood in a strong position health-wise and GWS in anything but, the Magpies must be favoured, particularly in Melbourne.
Collingwood’s key issue has been their tall forwards in 2026, so GWS will hope that missing Buckley and Taylor doesn’t cost them as much as it could in other games.
Still, the Magpies should have enough firepower to get it done given the circumstances.
Prediction: Collingwood by 18 points.
Lachlan Geleit
ST KILDA v BRISBANE
Saturday - 12:35pm AEDT - Marvel Stadium
We’ve already seen the best and worst of the Saints in 2026.
A hard-fought defeat to Collingwood, a high-scoring loss to Melbourne where they leaked 120 points (but scored 107), and a strange old win over GWS. It was always going to take a little bit of time for Ross Lyon’s new-look Saints to bed in. Now they’ve got that win under their belt they’ll be brimming with confidence as they prepare to host the reigning premiers.
Two defeats to kick off their premiership defence, but it’s not the first time the Lions have started slowly (in 2024 they went 0-3 before winning the flag). They’ve had a nice freshen up since the round 1 defeat to Sydney and they’ll be burning to pick up a first win of 2026. Co-captain Harris Andrews remains sidelined through suspension, but Zac Bailey and Darcy Gardiner return from their bans. The Lions will be intent on winning this one.
There’s a spicy backdrop to this match due to the bickering between Chris Fagan and Ross Lyon. The coach of the "moaners" even copped a drive-by from former Suns chairman Tony Cochrane during the week. From a footy sense, the Lions have won their last four at Marvel and have beaten the Saints in seven straight outings. The last two have been smackings under the roof. It won’t be as easy this time, but the Lions to notch a W.
Prediction: Brisbane by 15 points.
Andrew Slevison
FREMANTLE v RICHMOND
Saturday - 4:15pm AEDT - Optus Stadium
Fremantle at home is shaping up to be a scary proposition for interstate teams. The Dockers successfully laid the foundations last week against Melbourne for Optus Stadium to become their fortress in 2026.
It hasn’t been the start to the season that Richmond was hoping to have after a 10-goal loss to Gold Coast. Perhaps even more disappointing than the loss were the injuries to veterans Tom Lynch and Toby Nankervis. Nankervis looks set to miss 6-8 weeks with a hamstring injury which has exposed the Tigers’ significant lack of ruck depth. Dependable defender Nathan Broad also misses with a calf.
With Luke Jackson and Sean Darcy in the side for the Dockers, whoever Richmond choose to fill in for Nankervis, is going to have an almighty challenge. It will likely lead to a midfield domination with Caleb Serong, Andrew Brayshaw and Shai Bolton all likely to receive first-class service and winning the all-important midfield battle.
There might not be a worse side to face in the competition than Fremantle without a premier ruckman given the calibre of Jackson and Darcy. Adem Yze will have his work cut out for him and will be hoping for big performances from experienced duo Tim Taranto and Nick Vlaustin as well as an injection of energy from Sam Lalor in the centre.
Expect to see Fremantle kick a big score with Josh Treacy aka ‘The Big Cohuna’ on the hook for a bag of goals.
Prediction: Fremantle by 31 points.
Harry Cumming
ESSENDON v NORTH MELBOURNE
Saturday - 7:35pm AEDT - Marvel Stadium
Get the popcorn ready, this could be an early-season banger!
Essendon has been hung, drawn and quartered after just two matches, criticised from pillar to post after copping two 60+ point shellackings. Last Sunday’s dismal defeat to Port Adelaide prompted coach Brad Scott to use the word “demoralised” when describing his team.
It’s been a tough start to 2026 but the best thing about footy is there are always chances to redeem yourself. The Bombers will be working themselves into a frenzy - you’d imagine - to get themselves up for this Saturday night spectacle.
Suppose the only way is up for the downcast Dons.
Things aren’t quite as hectic in the North Melbourne camp despite coughing up a 30-point lead before losing to West Coast.
They were close to ending David King’s dry spell with two wins in a row for the first time since the start of 2023, but fell over when the pressure went on.
Alastair Clarkson’s Roos have showed they do have an attacking arsenal with a score of 113 in a 46-point thumping of Port Adelaide in Round 1 (who then beat the Dons by 63), before kicking 94 against the Eagles. They just need to tighten up in defence after shipping 17 goals last weekend.
While the Dons have won 12 straight over the Roos in a one-sided streak that started in 2017, it’s hard to tip them given what they’ve dished up so far.
North are by no means a reliable source but their best in the early stages of 2026 has far outweighed Essendon’s best.
Prediction: North Melbourne by 18 points.
Andrew Slevison
PORT ADELAIDE v WEST COAST
Sunday - 12:30pm AEDT - Adelaide Oval
Both teams are coming off important wins to silence the early season critics and now the opportunity for back-to-back wins beckons.
The Eagles looked a much more dynamic team than we have seen for the last few years when they faced North Melbourne last week. However, the fairytale story of SSP rookie Milan Murdock will unfortunately not be continuing against the Power as the former East Fremantle midfielder succumbed to a hamstring injury during the Kangaroos clash.
It was a challenging start to life as senior coach for Port Adelaide’s Josh Carr with an unexpected blowout at the hands of North Melbourne in Round 1. The response at home against Essendon in Round 2 was telling, with the Power dominating in every aspect of the game. The only sour note was the injury to Connor Rozee who looks set to miss an extended period of footy with a high-grade hamstring tendon rupture.
If the AFL worked on a circle of parity, then West Coast would get the job done based on how both teams have fared against North Melbourne in the last fortnight. However, with the advantage of being at home, it’s hard to see the Power going out at Adelaide Oval.
Prediction: Port Adelaide by 18 points.
Harry Cumming
CARLTON v MELBOURNE
Sunday - 3:15pm AEDT - MCG
An interesting way to finish the round, this clash will tell us a lot about where both teams sit in 2026.
Carlton have almost been set up as a mini-Melbourne from a list perspective following from their 2021 premiership, taking pieces here and there from that build.
The Blues still rely on their strength at stoppage and winning field position, but it appears the Demons have gone away from that mode in 2026 under Steven King with the side playing a high-octane game.
So, will their new game style stack up against something like what they once were? That’s almost the most intriguing question ahead of the game.
Melbourne has shown a real ability to score from their two games and may have more firepower than Carlton should this get into a shootout.
The Blues will hope this turns into a tougher game by getting on top early when the game is hot and contested.
For the Dees, they’ll hope a similar pattern occurs for Carlton in other recent games where they’ve faded out once the game slows down and opens up.
If Carlton can keep up their intensity and stoppage beyond half time, they’ll have enough senior bodies to get the job done.
But if they continue to fade as the game goes on, expect the Dees to run over the top of them.
Prediction: Melbourne by 9 points.
Lachlan Geleit
