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Full Noise by SN
Ex-Carlton fitness guru explains second-half fadeouts
Andrew Slevison • April 1st, 2026 3:07 pm
Former Carlton fitness guru Andrew Russell believes the stress of being in front with the potential of failure is holding the Blues back.
The Blues have held half-time leads in all three of their 2026 fixtures to date before going on to lose twice and narrowly avoiding a comical defeat to an inaccurate Richmond in Round 1.
Michael Voss’ side capitulated in Sydney in their Opening Round clash with the Swans, conceding 18 second-half goals while kicking only six to go under by 63 points.
Last Sunday at the MCG, the Baggers led by as much as 43 points before conceding 14 goals to Melbourne while kicking only four themselves after the main break. It resulted in a 23-point defeat.
Carlton has been outscored by a massive 153 points in second halves in 2026, kicking 11.18.(84) and conceding 36.21.(237).
They’ve managed to play well enough to get themselves in a winning position before choking in the second half and Russell believes it all comes down to stress which impairs their decision-making.
“You can talk about Carlton or you can talk about the situation they're in, and the situation they're in is when the game becomes very stressful, their decision-making changes,” Russell said on SEN Breakfast.
“We know that when you are highly stressed, that affects what happens in your brain. So, stress comes from physical fatigue or it comes from psychologically overthinking things.
“So, when you see in a game some players might be struggling physically but other players will be struggling psychologically to deal with the stress of that situation, but essentially, sport is about you versus your opposition. How are you dealing with the demands versus how they deal with the demands?
“We know there is no distinction - body and mind are one. There's a whole lot of chemical and electrical messages going between our brain and our bodies. But essentially stress is the key thing here.
“So they'd be working really hard to say, ‘How can we reduce stress to improve our output’. They're looking for evidence everywhere, every single player, they'd be looking for evidence from their training history, their playing history, they're looking for numbers and stats in the game, looking at evidence of them versus the opposition.
“They'll be looking for different trends during quarters, what's happening, what is changing for both at a player level and a team level. Because I think this is the challenge for them, is saying which players are the ones that are struggling versus our system.”
Garry Lyon feels the weight of expectation is acting as a psychological anchor for the Blues.
“This is my take on it - certainly on the weekend they just played instinctively off the top and maybe the stress comes when they then are burdened with expectation,” said Lyon.
“‘Oh we're 40 points ahead, now what are we going to do?’. And that's when they seem to get burdened with stress and the consequence of losing comes in and it self fulfils and all of a sudden they can't get out of their own way.”
A pattern has certainly emerged with the Blues in recent times.
Since the beginning of the 2025 season, Carlton's second-half points differential is -333 after enjoying +189 in the first half.
In the last 26 games, the Blues have won only five third quarters (two have been even) and have won just 10 final terms. It has resulted in eight of their last 16 losses coming after a half-time advantage.
Russell says Carlton would enter half-time breaks - given it’s been a trend previously - with knowledge that they could be beaten.
That breeds nervousness and stress.
“Without a doubt expectation effects completely drive outcomes,” he added. “We are prediction machines so we go in at half-time and Melbourne are thinking, ‘We expect Carlton to struggle’. Carlton are thinking, ‘Hmm, we think we might struggle because that's what the evidence is’
“You can only judge yourself and others on the evidence and so one team (Melbourne) has a hormonal response at half-time that says, ‘We’re a chance’, so their whole system literally gets excited about the opportunity.
“Carlton right now is saying, ‘Our system is stressed because we're unsure’, so hormonally they go into it completely differently.
“So then if the evidence in the third quarter suggests otherwise it can shift things, things can shift pretty quickly as well.”
Russell, who worked at Hawthorn during their golden era, insists it wouldn’t be a fitness issue that is holding the Blues back.
“I doubt that at a team level, there won't be a fitness component. At an individual level I would say there might be some players there that are probably not at the level that they want them to be,” Russell said further.
“Every team has got guys that struggle to run in a team, every team has got that. Hodgey (Luke Hodge) was never a great runner, and Sam Mitchell was never a great runner. But what they did have is unbelievable outside runners in Isaac Smith and Bradley Hill, for instance.
“We knew that that mix only had to shift marginally for the team to struggle, both at a tactical level, but also the ability to actually execute what the coaches need you to execute.”
There will be a fair bit of interest when Carlton meets North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium this Friday.
Look out if the Blues are five goals ahead at half-time…
