The algorithm calculating the last 10 AFL premiers
SEN • September 5th, 2025 1:11 pm
Former West Coast coach Adam Simpson has revealed the five variables that have calculated the last 10 premiership winners.
Diving into the numbers across previous seasons, Simpson discovered that four specific stats - partnered with one extra variable – has developed a pattern for 10 straight seasons, revealing that teams that has ranked closest to the top six in each category has won the premiership.
Uncovering the algorithm on SEN Whateley ahead of the 2025 finals, Simpson’s calculations suggest that a top four giant should win yet another premiership, given the stats hold up.
“I’ve looked at some stats – the last 10 premiership winners have been top six in these five stats, in particular against the top eight sides,” Simpson said.
“You can’t win a flag in the last 10 years without being top six in these stats. If you’re not, I can’t say you’re going to win a premiership.
“One of them is D50 to F50 ball movement. For example, Adelaide are 18th at that, getting it from their D50 into their forward 50. They’re 18th at it. Fremantle are 14th, Hawthorn fifth, Gold Coast 11th, Brisbane are first. That’s a little indicator on your ball movement – and this is (only) against top eight sides.
“Inside 50 differentials. So, just field position. You’ve got to be in the top six to win a flag, and Adelaide are 11th in that against top eight sides. Collingwood are second at that.
“Scores against – you’ve got to be top six. Brisbane are first, Fremantle are 10th.
“The (next) one is how well you defend your turnovers in your back half – you’ve got to be top six at that. The last variable is injuries, because I think that plays a part.
“I did all this and added them all up, so the lower the score the better. If you are rank one, you get one point.
“Unfortunately, who came in last was Fremantle, on 49 points all up – the higher the worse.
“The second worst is Adelaide at 42. Gold Coast are the third worst – they’re at 40. Then the Giants at 30, Geelong at 26, Hawthorn at 24, Collingwood at 24.
“Brisbane are at 13.”
RANKING:
1- Brisbane
=2- Collingwood
=2- Hawthorn
4- Geelong
5- GWS
6- Gold Coast
7- Adelaide
8- Fremantle
“It’s finals, but the form, matchups, experience, and all of those things will come into it. In the end, you’ve got to back something.”
