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Betfair's 2025 Brownlow tips and predictor
Betfair • September 22nd, 2025 5:04 pm
Brownlow Medal 2025: A Season of Trading Opportunities
The Brownlow Medal is football’s highest individual honour, but it’s also one of the great betting events of the year. No market captures the drama quite like the Betfair Exchange, where odds fluctuate in real-time on everything happening both on and off the field.
Nick Daicos was the story from start to finish, a rock-solid favourite who never once touched double figures. At his shortest, he was matched at $1.56, before drifting to $3 and firming back into $2.48 heading into tonight’s count. For traders, this created opportunities to lay short odds, back the drift, and build positions.
Behind him, the outsiders created some of the most compelling betting narratives of the season. Jordan Dawson was matched at $400 and is now into $7.20. Noah Anderson traded as high as $110, finishing at $7.60. Matt Rowell hit $100, then got as short as $7.40 before drifting to $14.50.
Second favourite Bailey Smith was $140 late in the season, but after a couple of big weeks got as $3.05, now $5.20. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera reached $1000 at one stage, firmed to $12.50 and if you still think he’s a chance, he’s $65 on Betfair. Each represents the kind of price movement that’s only possible on the Exchange, with punters able to trade in and out all year rather than simply take a fixed price.
Top Contenders:
Matt Rowell (Gold Coast)
Rowell’s toughness in 2025 was unmatched, top-two for tackles, top-three in contested possessions, and a huge presence at stoppages leading clearances. He’ll poll strongly, but the Suns’ modest win tally compared to some of the other contenders, plus Noah Anderson, could hold him back.
Bailey Smith (Geelong)
Despite missing three games, Smith was incredible for Geelong in 2025. Regularly racking up 30 disposals (avg 29.3 per game), he was their clear standout. His flashy style and explosive runs are exactly what umpires notice. One thing that will work against Smith is his contested possession numbers and clearances which umpires tend to be drawn to.
Noah Anderson (Gold Coast)
Anderson has become the Suns’ midfield star, finishing number 1 in the AFL for disposals and top-four for contested possessions and clearances. He’s consistent and visible, carrying Gold Coast into finals. His profile screams Brownlow. Team wins work against him here and will be battling Rowell for votes across the night.
Jordan Dawson (Adelaide)
The Crows’ captain has led from the front, combining balance, toughness and polish in a side that finished top of the ladder. Two things that bode well for Dawson are lack of competitors in Adelaide’s side and the number of wins the team had this year. While not being a huge clearance player (avg 4.4 per game – 34th in the AFL and 33rd for contested possessions) he finished top 4 in the AFL for tackles, 1st for inside 50s.
Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
Daicos remains the clear favourite. Umpires look for ball winners with a contested edge. Daicos finished top 2 for disposals and 7th for clearances. Interestingly, his output was slightly down on 2024, but all in all, he’s been a consistent performer and always a very talked-about player. With Collingwood winning 16 games and not many others stealing votes, he’ll be a prolific vote getter again.
As the votes are called, volatility will certainly come to the fore. Expect odds to swing as players pick up unexpected votes or favourites miss in key games.
This year’s Brownlow also sets the stage for a blockbuster Grand Final on Saturday between Brisbane and Geelong.
