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Who wins & why? Tips & predictions for Round 4, 2026
SEN • April 2nd, 2026 11:47 am
Round 4 is here as we enter a huge weekend of footy.
The Easter long weekend sees things kick off on Thursday as the Lions host the Magpies, before the round wraps up on the Monday as the Cats and Hawks meet in their traditional clash.
We've broken down all eight games across five big days of AFL.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
BRISBANE v COLLINGWOOD
Thursday - 7:30pm AEDT - GABBA
Winless after two, the back-to-back premiers are back on track with a season-first win last week. A Round 3 clash against St Kilda saw the return of the Lions’ best, booting seven last quarter goals to return to winning ways. Brisbane will enter this contest without both Harris Andrews and Hugh McCluggage, who are both on track to return in Round 5. A 29-point win over the Pies in last year’s prelim will add confidence.
Collingwood have kicked off their season well, winning two from three to hush the naysayers. An Opening Round win over St Kilda was somewhat of a statement, and despite a loss to the Crows, a beating up of the undermanned Giants in Round 3 was exactly what Craig McRae’s men needed. With fresh injuries to captain Darcy Moore and veteran Scott Pendlebury, the Magpies travel to the Gabba as the underdogs, as livewire Beau McCreery celebrates his 100th game.
The Pies have showed signs that they will remain competitive in 2026 with their defensive system, however, this may be a little too tough a task. Despite a below average start for the Lions, you can never truly bet against the back-to-back premiers, particularly following their 2025-esque fourth-quarter effort against St Kilda. The Magpies have won their last two against the Lions at the Gabba which will certainly aid the club’s mentality, however without Moore to support their defensive unit, the Pies may not have the arsenal to challenge a firing Brisbane side.
It won’t be easy, but we think Brisbane are simply too strong.
Prediction: Brisbane by 15 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
NORTH MELBOURNE v CARLTON
Friday - 3:15pm AEDT - Marvel Stadium
North Melbourne have found some form to start the 2026 season, winning two of their first three games. In these promising victories over Port Adelaide and Essendon, young gun Harry Sheezel has starred, while Luke Davies-Uniacke found his elite form again. However, ruckman Tristian Xerri made a horrible brain fade last week, smearing his blood over Essendon captain Andy McGrath’s face, resulting in a three-week ban. In worse news for North Melbourne, they have lost the last 11 times following a victory. Is this the week the Kangaroos can change that harrowing stat?
For Carlton, the nightmare continues. The Blues just cannot string together a second half, and all their fans are growing restless. The only win from Carlton’s season came in Round 1 against Richmond, where they barely hung on by 4 points after leading by 27 at half-time. In fact, the Blues have been outscored by 153 points in second halves across their three games in 2026.
This is a tricky game to pick as North Melbourne have lost each of their last 11 games coming off a win, while Carlton just simply cannot play out a full game. But this will be the week where the Kangaroos snap that streak. North’s midfield is rapid, with elite ball movement – something which Carlton have struggled with dealing with on numerous occasions this year. Expect the Blues to win the first half, as they usually do, then choke as the Kangaroos run them off their feet.
Prediction: North Melbourne by 14 points.
Connor Scanlon
ADELAIDE v FREMANTLE
Friday - 7:15pm AEDT - Adelaide Oval
The Crows almost nicked it from the Cats down at Geelong last Thursday night, but just weren’t efficient enough. They did miss the experience of captain Jordan Dawson and veterans Taylor Walker and Rory Laird who are likely back to take on Freo.
After knocking off Collingwood at the MCG in round 1, Matthew Nicks' Crows have narrowly dropped their next two – but they’ve been to very worthy adversaries in the Bulldogs and Cats. That isn’t bad form by an stretch of the imagination.
Justin Longmuir’s Dockers made a mess of Richmond in the wet last week. It was a competitive first half before Freo kicked away to win by 60 points. It might have been a bigger margin if they weren’t so errant in front of goal, returning 13.25.(103). Josh Treacy was a man mountain, marking the wet ball 12 times and booting 4.3, while Shai Bolton racked up 30-plus disposals for the second week on the trot. Freo’s game is in pretty good order.
If based purely on form you’d pick the Dockers here, especially with Jordon Butts out concussed and Treacy in top form. But the Crows are back at home after almost pulling off a big away win with an undermanned side. These are the types of games they simply must win if they want to be taken seriously as contenders. Freo are clearly playing well enough to win, but siding with the Crows to grind one out right in front of their fans.
Prediction: Adelaide by 7 points.
Andrew Slevison
RICHMOND v PORT ADELAIDE
Saturday - 4:15pm AEDT - MCG
Richmond have started 2026 poorly, sitting 0-3 with a league-worst percentage of 56.9. It’s probably where many expected this side to sit though, particularly given their injury list and two of their games so far coming against Fremantle and Gold Coast. Their Round 1 loss to Carlton almost felt like a win given how they came back to lose by only 4 at the MCG. Now ahead of their most winnable game yet, the Tigers will back themselves to get on the board this season.
Port Adelaide have been one of the league’s most disappointing teams so far in 2026. While they’re a mediocre 1-2 with a percentage of 105.5, losses to North Melbourne and West Coast and a win against Essendon really has outlined where this team looks to be headed this season – bottom four. With an injury list building and a lack of depth clearly evident, the Power look like they’ll be largely uncompetitive against the league’s best. Thankfully here, they’re playing a fellow cellar-dweller in Richmond.
Can Port Adelaide’s best get them over the line? That’s the big question here with all of Zak Butters, Jason Horne-Francis and Mitch Georgiades perhaps the three best players on the ground from either side. If even one of them doesn’t fire, that brings Richmond right into the contest, with the Tigers appearing to have better depth and some more exciting young talent coming through the ranks.
If the Tigers can break even in the middle, they may just have enough to get it done around the ground.
Prediction: Richmond by 10 points.
Lachlan Geleit
WEST COAST v SYDNEY
Saturday - 7:35pm AEDT - Optus Stadium
Both teams are coming into this fixture 2-1 for the season so far, with West Coast having their best win under Andrew McQualter’s reign against Port Adelaide last week.
It was an inspired win on the road for the young Eagles who shrugged off a slow start and managed to hold on for a two-point victory. The Eagles look a different team in 2026 with the likes of Willem Duursma, Cooper Duff-Tytler and Jobe Shanahan injecting a youthful energy to the side. For the first time in a few years, the Eagles are watchable and are no longer the competition’s easy beats.
By the time the Swans run out onto Optus Stadium this Saturday, it will have been 16 days since their last match where they lost by 17 points to the Hawks way back at the start of Round 2.
Charlie Curnow’s performance was brought into question after struggling to have an impact on the game after quarter time. This week should be different as the Swans have the opportunity to expose a relatively inexperienced backline.
The Swans will be feeling fresh off the back of an early break in the season however it will be interesting to see whether a big win on the road and a subsequent six-day break will impact the Eagles.
Prediction: Sydney by 21 points.
Harry Cumming
MELBOURNE v GOLD COAST
Sunday - 3:15pm AEST - MCG
This is shaping up to be a subtle blockbuster.
Everything on paper points towards the Suns winning comfortably and taking the four points and a healthy percentage back to the Sunshine State, but there are a few underlying stories that may just tip the balance slightly.
The Suns have been the fastest starting team this year with three-straight wins and a whopping percentage of 191. Their last win came against Richmond where they easily accounted for the Tigers, however their star recruit Christian Petracca injured his hamstring and will miss 1-3 more weeks whilst Bailey Humphrey received a suspension ruling him out until Round 6.
It seems a twist of irony that Petracca misses his first match against his former side, whilst Humphrey was pursued by the Dees as part of a trade for the Norm Smith medallist but was held to his contract by the Suns. Humphrey may yet find himself at the Dees later this year but his and Petracca’s absence this weekend is significant and perhaps opens the door just ajar.
Melbourne were dismal in the first quarter against Carlton but turned it around in a barnstorming come-from-behind victory that showed much flare led by Kozzy Pickett.
The Suns may well win this comfortably, but I can’t help but smell an upset brewing.
It would be an Easter Sunday miracle if Melbourne got the chocolates here.
They couldn’t… could they?
Prediction: Melbourne by 8 points.
Harry Cumming
WESTERN BULLDOGS v ESSENDON
Sunday - 7:20pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
The general consensus is that this one could very well become ugly.
The Bulldogs, from a betting perspective, are unbackable at odds of $1.005 with some bookmakers. The line is a mammoth 72.5 points, or 12 goals. The bookies are giving the Bombers absolutely none.
You’d imagine a fair chunk of that would be based on the fact that ‘flat-track Bulldogs’ - as they’ve been described in the past - have had their way with the dilapidated Dons in recent years.
Scores of 143-50, 127-36 and 90-49 have resulted in wins of 93, 91 and 41 points in three of the past four meetings. The Dons got one by 29 points in early 2024, but it’s been pretty much one-way traffic with the Dogs winning 11 of the last 13 meetings between the two clubs.
Luke Beveridge’s hounds are sitting pretty in second spot with a 3-0 record and averaging 113 points per game, while Brad Scott’s Bombers are battling at 0-3 and are conceding an average of 119.
It’s hard to see this one going any way but up for the Doggies who have the firepower to put another cricket score on the Dons. There needs to be a steely resolve from Essendon, which there might be early, but the dam wall should eventually break.
Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 58 points.
Andrew Slevison
HAWTHORN v GEELONG
Monday - 3:15pm AEST - MCG
Hawthorn enter this one as favourites, but recent history between the two sides wouldn’t point towards them winning.
In their last eight against the Cats, the Hawks have won only won of them, with their last meeting a 30-point victory in favour of Geelong in the 2025 Preliminary Final.
In that game, Patrick Dangerfield dominated with three goals and 31 disposals, but he’ll miss this clash in what could be a huge boost for the Hawks.
Hawthorn’s injury list is in a strong place too, with only Will Day missing from their best 23 with a shoulder injury.
If they can break even on-ball without Day, then the Hawks are well and truly in this, with their run on the outside potentially able to put a Geelong side to the sword that has leaked 100+ in two of their games.
The other factor here is that Hawthorn are coming off an 18-day break. They’ll be fresh… but is that too long in between games.
This is just about a flip of a coin, but even though the Hawks are better placed than they have been in recent years to take down the Cats, we’ll have to see it to believe it first.
Prediction: Geelong by 10 points.
Lachlan Geleit
