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FWC: BEL v SEN live on SN ExtraWho wins & why? Tips & predictions for Round 17, 2026
SEN • July 2nd, 2026 12:47 pm
For the first time since Round 11, we're back to nine games.
And what an intriguing round this week proves to be.
It starts with a Grand Final rematch between Geelong and Brisbane, with the Lions hoping to make it back-to-back wins at the Cattery on Thursday night.
That's followed by a Friday night doubleheader with the Swans off the back of their third loss of the season, hosting the Bulldogs at the SCG while the Crows travel west to take on the Eagles after their shock loss in Showdown 60.
Saturday's matches will see us all around the nation, starting in Tasmania with Hawthorn taking on Melbourne in an important match for the Demons' top six hopes before finishing at the MCG as Richmond hopes to break Carlton's winning streak under interim coach Josh Fraser.
And on Sunday, the Kangaroos will look to make it four straight wins when they head to Adelaide to take on Port.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
GEELONG V BRISBANE
Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - GMHBA Stadium
Form has been tough to come by for the Cats in recent weeks, with a difficult fixture hindering their run at a top four spot. That said, a healthy percentage still sees Geelong inside the top four, albeit on equal points with the eighth-placed Bulldogs. With just one win from their last four, the Cats will be desperate to return to winning ways, and what better time to do so than off the bye against the reigning premiers – who they beat by 41 points at the Gabba just over a month ago. Sam De Koning and Ollie Henry celebrate their 100th games.
Several questions have been asked of the Lions this season – and didn’t they answer those last week! After struggling to find their feet over the early stages of 2026, Brisbane hosted premiership fancies Sydney and taught them a lesson on Thursday night, downing them by 43 points in one of the statements of the season. With some key players still to return from injury, Chris Fagan’s men issued a reminder that form is temporary, and if the Lions can maintain their best football leading into September, their mid-season form will mean very little. That said, tonight presents as just as tough a challenge as the last.
Brisbane responded to last week’s call, but can they do so once more? There is no longer any questioning of the Lions’ premiership pedigree having seen their best football against the Swans. The question now is whether or not they can carry that week on week. Tonight might just be the toughest challenge in the game. Geelong haven’t lost at GMHBA since… Brisbane in Round 15, 2025. Coming off the break, the Cats enter with a well-rested 23 and will look to carry their home form into what presents as a crucial battle for a top four spot. The Lions are hot… can they answer the call once more?
Prediction: Geelong by 4 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
SYDNEY V WESTERN BULLDOGS
Friday - 7:40pm AEST - SCG
Are the Swans just starting to wobble a little? They returned from their mid-season bye only to cop a 43-point hiding from the Lions in Brisbane. That was a second defeat in their past five games with two of those wins coming by just two and three points. But Dean Cox’s Swannies are still sitting second with a 12-3 record and remain a team that must be taken very seriously. They’ll be intent on bouncing back swiftly from the Lions loss so they can remain clear in second spot.
The Dogs did enough to get it done over St Kilda in Round 15 prior to last weekend’s bye. That win has them sitting just outside the top six on percentage, and they can’t really afford many more slip-ups if they are eager to avoid the wildcard round. The premium footy of Luke Beveridge’s Doggies is still good enough to challenge the very best but they just need to produce it a bit more consistently.
The Swans are unbeaten in seven games at the SCG this year. They’re averaging 118 points at the venue in that time while conceding an average of just 77. Those sort of numbers bode very well to extend a home winning streak. The Dogs are 3-1 interstate this year and they’ve won their last two over the Swans in Sydney, but they’d have to play above themselves to win this one. It won’t be easy but the Swannies must bounce back.
Prediction: Sydney by 15 points.
Andrew Slevison
WEST COAST V ADELAIDE
Friday - 8:10pm AEST - Optus Stadium
The Eagles currently sit at 16th on the ladder with their only three victories coming to Essendon, GWS and Port Adelaide. The young side has also conceded the third most points for the season, showing a glaring vulnerability in their defence. In good news, veteran Tim Kelly is expected to return this week, majorly boosting the Eagles’ midfield stocks. Bailey Williams will also enjoy his 100th game this week after experiencing a breakout season for West Coast.
When looking at the Crows, Adelaide is coming off a loss to Port Adelaide in the Showdown last week but don’t let that fool you. The Power were essentially playing their Grand Final and upsets regularly occur in Showdowns. Outside of that loss to the Power, the Crows have been in elite form, winning six games since Round 8. The 2025 minor premiers are currently sitting sixth on the ladder and are pushing for another top four finish this season.
This will be a fairly straightforward game. There is a clear gap in class between the Crows and Eagles, which will allow Adelaide to expose West Coast’s defensive vulnerabilities. The Crows will be especially motivated as well to get back in the win column after dropping points to their rivals, and this is the perfect matchup to achieve that in. While Optus Stadium hands the Eagles an advantage, the Crows will still prove too much for this young West Coast squad.
Prediction: Adelaide by 42 points.
Connor Scanlon
HAWTHORN V MELBOURNE
Saturday - 1:15pm AEST - UTAS Stadium
Former Melbouirne Storm Academy player Matt Hill makes his debut in Nick Watson’s absence as the Hawks return to Tasmania for the second last time this year. Jack Gunston's potential return would come at a crucial time to help guide the debutant up forward in the absence of Watson’s goal sense.
The season is rolling nicely for Sam Mitchell’s men and if they can get through the Demons here, the draw opens up in the next month. Top two is a genuine chance and could be in their hands if they bank some wins in this next phase.
The Demons haven’t surpassed 100 points since Round 10 (against the Hawks) and are 2-3 in that time. Steven King may be working on the defensive side of their game, but he would want that scoring power to return if they stand a chance against Hawthorn.
This would be a season-defining win interstate, where they are still yet to win in 2026, and would temporarily halt the gradual slide down the ladder they have experienced over the last few rounds. It’s time to see if these Demons are ready yet.
Hawthorn has won it’s last 12 at the venue and would be supremely confident they can keep that rolling as they look to capitalise on the Tasmanian advantage they have always held. It won’t come easy for the Hawks, but it’s getting to crunch time in the season, and this is when the serious sides start getting their game in order.
It’s cold, it’s miserable, and it’s exactly how the Hawks would like it in the Apple Isle. After falling to the Demons earlier this season, suspecting Hawthorn will make amends.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 23 points.
Ethan Clark
GWS V FREMANTLE
Saturday - 1:35pm AEST - Manuka Oval
It's been business as usual for the Dockers, who once again finished the round's action with four premiership points for the 14th straight time. This time, they managed to get some revenge, beating the same side that knocked them out of finals last year, with the Suns keeping them to just 29 points. Helped by Sydney's loss to Brisbane last Thursday, Fremantle are now two games clear of second place, seeing them become the runaway favourites to lift their first AFL premiership. And with their largely clean bill of health continuing, it's hard to see who can pose a legitimate threat to stop them.
In recent years, the mid-season bye has been the reset that has propelled GWS into finals. But that has not been the case in 2026. Since their bye at Round 13, the Giants have lost all three games, which has seen them cede their wildcard spot. That battle to make their fourth straight finals series won't get any easier following their 14-point loss to Hawthorn last Friday night, with Brent Daniels (calf) and Max Gruzewski (patella dislocation) missing this week's clash against the Dockers. But on a positive note, the Giants are hopeful that the trio of Jack Buckley, Toby McMullin and Nick Madden could make a return.
This will be the fourth time these two sides have met in the nation's capital, with the Dockers having the better record, having won their last two matches here. And that record seems likely to continue. Without Jesse Hogan, Brent Daniels and Max Gruzewski in the forward line, it's hard to see the Giants being able to generate a score big enough against the best defence in the competition.
Prediction: Fremantle by 27 points.
Nicholas Quinlan
GOLD COAST V COLLINGWOOD
Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - People First Stadium
Experts once thought Gold Coast could contend for the premiership this season, now we wonder if they’ll even make it to September. Last week’s flogging in the west to Fremantle extended the Suns' losing streak to five and bumped them out of the top 10. Considering the talent and health of the list, it’s too early to write off the season yet, but time is running out for the Suns to regain their form. Despite the poor team form, Noah Anderson has averaged 35 disposals and six clearances in the last three weeks.
Successive wins over bottom four opponents now sees Collingwood back in the top 10. A fortnight ago, they knocked over a depleted Port Adelaide in less than convincing fashion. Last week was a big improvement though, piling on 31 scoring shots to beat Richmond by 34 points. Nick Daicos and Jordan De Goey have starred in Collingwood’s last two outings, claiming 19 and 16 AFLCA Coaches’ votes respectively. Isaac Quaynor is in doubt as he manages an ankle concern, Brayden Maynard (shoulder) is a chance to return.
Today will be Gold Coast’s fifth straight game against a top 10 team, with two more to come in the next fortnight. The Suns should see today as a winnable game, considering Collingwood hasn’t faced an opponent of this calibre since the round 15 bye. Confidence isn’t always easy to come by though, especially without any recent winning form. Damien Hardwick must find a way to instil belief in his men to get the season back on track. If not now, when will Gold Coast’s next win come?
Prediction: Magpies by 9 points.
Eddie Cook
RICHMOND V CARLTON
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - MCG
Josh Fraser’s ‘Fraseball’ is absolutely doing the business for Carlton right now. The Blues have won six in a row under the interim coach and that looks highly likely to continue at the MCG on Saturday night.
They were far too good for West Coast last weekend, running out victors by 53 points with midfield trio Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh and George Hewett running riot.
Under Fraser they average 88.5 points per game, which is solid, but they’re conceding only 66.8. Their defensive robustness has been a hallmark of their game since Michael Voss departed.
That doesn’t augur all that well for Richmond who cannot kick a winning score and haven’t yet cracked the ton in season 2026.
Adem Yze’s Tigers were ok against Collingwood last weekend in their 34-point MCG defeat, but they never really truly tested the Magpies.
There are no real factors as to why you’d tip the Tigers in this. It looks fairly probable that Carlton makes it 7-0 under Fraser as they continue to press their case for a wildcard slot.
Prediction: Carlton by 25 points.
Andrew Slevison
ESSENDON V ST KILDA
Sunday - 3:15pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
The end of the season really can’t come quick enough for Essendon fans, who had to endure a tough 14-point loss to North Melbourne last weekend.
The Bombers’ ball movement has been a key issue all season and last weekend was no exception, with skill errors and poor turnovers putting the Essendon back six under immense pressure. Dean Solomon is still searching for his first win as interim coach as the race for the vacant coaching role begins to heat up.
St Kilda had the bye following their Round 15 loss to the Bulldogs in which Jack Sinclair and Tom de Koning both suffered potentially season ending injuries. This only compounds the issue of the loss of Sam Flanders, with the Saints lacking some key depth and quality across the field.
Liam Ryan has had a standout season so far, but the Saints still clearly have a Max King sized hole in their forward line. With Tom de Koning on the sidelines, this is only going to be further exacerbated.
St Kilda have won 3 of their last 4 against the Bombers and should be able to bank an important 4 points in their quest for a Wildcard position. Losing this match would put Ross Lyon’s men on the back foot as they need to ensure they don’t fall further behind with a handful of teams jostling to feature in September.
Currently at 13th and 6 points outside the Top 10, the Saints will need to string some wins together to feature in September. Expect this one to be relatively straightforward as St Kilda make a march for the Top 10.
Prediction: St Kilda by 24 points.
Harry Cumming
PORT ADELAIDE V NORTH MELBOURNE
Sunday - 4:40pm AEST - Adelaide Oval
It isn’t a stretch to say that Port Adelaide’s emphatic Showdown victory over Adelaide last week was Josh Carr’s best win since he became Senior Coach at the start of this season.
The Power outclassed Adelaide in all facets of the game and were led by standout performances from midfield pair Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis, the former winning the Showdown medal for his 37 disposals.
Whilst it’s hard to see Port Adelaide making an appearance in September, North Melbourne are very much in the conversation for a Wildcard spot after doing what needed to be done to secure the 4 points against Essendon. The win gave the Kangaroos their first back-to-back-to-back sequence of wins since 2019.
It’s been the steady influence of experienced veterans Luke Parker and Caleb Daniel that has supported the likes of Harry Sheezel who has dragged his team over the line in recent weeks.
North Melbourne will also be boosted by the return of Tristan Xerri who was sorely missed in the ruck against the Bombers whilst Port Adelaide could welcome back Miles Bergman from a toe injury.
Port Adelaide have a strong record against North Melbourne registering 11 wins from the past 13 games. However, their most recent encounter earlier this year in Round 2 at the Docklands saw the Kangaroos win by an emphatic 46-points.
Can the Power reverse their early season fortunes, or will North Melbourne make it four wins on the trot? Port Adelaide displayed last week that their best footy is right up to scratch and at Adelaide Oval, it might just prove the difference in this battle.
Prediction: Port Adelaide by 7 points.
Harry Cumming
