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Full Noise by SN
Who wins & why? Tips & predictions for Round 12, 2026
SEN • May 28th, 2026 12:30 pm
Another interesting weekend of footy awaits us as we get into the mid-season bye rounds.
Things start with an intriguing clash between the Saints and Hawks at Marvel, while Friday sees the Blues and Cats face off as interim Carlton boss Josh Fraser aims to keep his winning streak alive.
Saturday's best game is Brisbane hosting Fremantle at the Gabba. After getting flogged last week, the Lions will be desperate to bounce back... that won't be easy against the ladder leaders.
Sunday is also intriguing as we see a potential Melbourne v GWS shootout and Essendon's first game after Brad Scott's axing against the Eagles in Perth.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
ST KILDA V HAWTHORN
Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
Despite an average start to the season, wins in favourable fixtures have kept the Saints in touching distance of the top six. Five wins from 11, St Kilda sits just two points out of the top 10 and two wins out of the six. However, with wins only coming against teams in the bottom half of the table, the Saints are desperate for a big scalp. They enter tonight’s clash without superstar Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera again, expected to return from a calf concern next week.
After failing to win in three straight games, the Hawks passed Round 11’s test in Tassie to restore lost momentum. Facing the Crows, Hawthorn came from behind early and weathered the storm late to make it 12 straight wins at UTAS Stadium. Nestling in the top four, the Hawks appear in good shape, with Will Day on the verge of an AFL return and Jack Gunston returning from a foot concern.
St Kilda are absolutely desperate for a big win. Yet to knock off a top 10 side, the new-look Saints simply must find a way to claim victory in a less favourable fixture. With the benefit of Marvel Stadium, it’s hard to completely rule them out of doing so against this Hawks side. That said, with a returning Jack Gunston and momentum off the back of Tassie, the Hawks might simply be too good. St Kilda will have a crack at this – no walk in the park for Hawthorn. However, Sam Mitchell’s men will likely find a way.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 21 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
CARLTON V GEELONG
Friday - 7:40pm AEST - MCG
Carlton have found a new coach bounce under interim boss Josh Fraser. The former Collingwood ruckman has picked up two wins from the two games he’s coached against the Bulldogs and Power, and the Blues look unshackled under his guidance.
Carlton have begun to use the ball better by foot in the last fortnight, while their stoppage game has still been strong. Is this a sign of things to come, or simply an early sugar hit? No better time to test that than against Geelong.
Those Cats are the most in-form team in footy right now, Geelong have dominated in each of their last four games, picking up big wins against the Kangaroos, Magpies, Lions and Swans. In those matches, the Cats have reached triple figures in all of them, while conceding just 77.5 on average.
With a healthy list and a game plan that’s humming, Geelong have reemerged as perhaps the premiership favourite. Chris Scott is also coaching brilliantly, with his sides’ run and spread a key component to their impeccable form.
While Carlton remarkably have won three of the last four head-to-head, this feels like a bridge too far for a new coach. Even though the Blues have improved in recent weeks, they still don’t have the players on their list to go with Geelong’s run and spread on the outside.
As a result, the Blues will hope this is a contested slog to try and grind out a win. Don’t expect the AFL’s best coach in Scott to let this one play out in the opposition’s hands.
Prediction: Geelong by 30 points.
Lachlan Geleit
SYDNEY V RICHMOND
Saturday - 1:15pm AEST - SCG
Sydney’s form had dipped in recent times, culminating in a 27-point defeat to Geelong last weekend - their first loss since Round 2. It wasn’t necessarily an alarming defeat but a defeat nonetheless. It did nothing to harm the Swans’ premiership credentials as they’re still the league’s highest scoring team with the second best defence, but they would want to arrest their form 'slump' sooner than later.
They will lose small forward pair Tom Papley and Malcolm Rosas for the next few weeks which could test their depth in that area. Dean Cox will be looking for a response.
Adem Yze’s Tigers pulled off a second win in four weeks by beating Essendon in Dreamtime at the ‘G last Friday night. Stand-in captain Tim Taranto, first-year Tiger Patrick Retschko and 200-gamer Jayden Short all starred in the stirring triumph. There were a few more casualties with Tom Lynch (fractured larynx) and Jonty Faull (concussion), but the Tigers are starting to get a few back with Sam Banks, Dion Prestia and Hugo Ralphsmith all available. Another huge test awaits in Sydney.
The Swans return to the comforts of home following the trip to the Cattery in a bid to improve their 5-0 SCG record this season. It’s a venue that Richmond has not won at since 2015. The Tigers have lost four of their past six to the Swans, but have saluted twice in the past three so it doesn’t read all that badly. But are they good enough to take their winning momentum to Sydney and beat the Swans? They might be competitive for longer but it’s hard to see the Tigs knocking off the Swannies who remain in the flag hunt.
Prediction: Sydney by 36 points.
Andrew Slevison
BRISBANE V FREMANTLE
Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - GABBA
Brisbane is so wildly out of form it isn’t funny.
Despite searching for the three-peat this season, the Lions currently sit in eighth place with five losses next to their name. In fact, the Lions past three games have been woeful for the club, losing to the Giants by 78 points, Geelong by 41 points, and surviving a late surge by Carlton to only win by 11 points. Now, they come up against the ladder leaders in Fremantle who have won 10 straight games.
The Brisbane midfield has nose-dived compared to last year as well, with Hugh McCluggage, Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft all having significantly worse outputs then their 2025 premiership season. Due to this, and a plethora of injuries, the Lions have also defensively fallen off, going from averaging 78 points against last season (ranked 6th), to now conceding 98 points on average (ranked 14th). On the opposite end of the spectrum, however, the Dockers are the best team in the competition at minimising opposition scores, averaging 70 points against.
Even more alarmingly for the Lions, their tackling has completely diminished. Ranked last in the competition with 516 tackles across the season, this is a completely different Lions outfit compared to previous seasons. Expect Fremantle to feast against Brisbane, especially if the Lions continue to let their opponents freely run by without laying a tackle.
And while Fremantle are playing away from home in this matchup, at the Gabba, the Dockers have been flawless on the road this season, apart from a Round 1 second-half choke against Geelong. This current Freo outfit is stacked with talent and should absolutely take home the four points here against the Lions.
Prediction: Fremantle by 27 points.
Connor Scanlon
WESTERN BULLDOGS V COLLINGWOOD
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
The Western Bulldogs will go into this one with some additional confidence after a solid performance against Melbourne, all without a recognised ruckman against Max Gawn. Marvel Stadium holds no fears for them, either, suiting their fast-paced style of play and putting the best player in the comp, Marcus Bontempelli, in pristine conditions.
Arthur Jones and Rhylee West are holding down the fort and providing a different dimension in this Sam Darcy-less forward line and will have the ability to hit the scoreboard against this Pies defence.
Injuries soured a rousing weekend for Collingwood against West Coast. In the hysteria surrounding Scott Pendlebury breaking the games record, Jamie Elliott and Darcy Moore’s injuries put a huge dampener on the Magpies’ chances in the next few weeks. Add to that Will Hayes’ dislocated shoulder and suddenly the depth of the list, which has been a question in recent times, will be a question. We will see what’s under the hood and how Craig McRae can shuffle his magnets as the premiership coach he is.
This is a big challenge for the Pies to re-lift themselves after the emotional high of last week in front of a packed MCG, to head to Marvel Stadium against the Western Bulldogs who have found themselves back in some form will be a difficult task. Nick Daicos shot back to his best with three goals and 34 disposals and will also be a handful under the lid - but with Ed Richards and the Bont opposing him, he will need some support. Two on the trot against some teams around them will be a nice way to head in to the second half of the season for Luke Beveridge and his Doggies.
Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 17 points.
Ethan Clark
MELBOURNE V GWS
Sunday - 3:15pm AEST - TIO Traeger Park
And just like that, the Giants reminded the competition they’ve still got what it takes. It would be fair to say most people put a line through their finals aspirations following a dismal loss to West Coast a fortnight ago. The response, however, was immense. Defying all expectations, the Giants produced the highest scoring third quarter in V/AFL history, a whopping 14 goals.
It makes this matchup against the Dees, who had a stumble against a spirited Bulldogs outfit, so much more interesting. GWS will be making their way to Alice Springs quietly confident given the fact Melbourne have been unable to make their home-away-from-home a fortress. Unlike the Suns in Darwin, or Hawthorn in Launceston, the Dees have struggled in the nation’s centre with a 4-7 record. Their last 3 matches have all been disappointing losses to GWS, Fremantle (by 92 points) and St Kilda.
This will be Steven King’s first trip to Traeger Park, and there’s no doubt he will be hoping to wipe the slate clean and establish Alice Springs as a home ground advantage for Melbourne. They will have to do it without Jake Lever who will miss with a concussion whilst the Giants will be bolstered by the return of Sam Taylor who looks likely to play his first match since he injured his hamstring during State of Origin.
The Giants huge score last weekend caused Melbourne’s match to be delayed to 3:18pm. That won’t happen this week and the 3:15pm Dees should return to the winners list.
Prediction: Melbourne by 13 points
Harry Cumming
WEST COAST V ESSENDON
Sunday - 7:20pm AEST - Optus Stadium
All of a sudden, this match has just become a whole lot more fascinating. The new coach bounce has seemingly worked for Carlton, can Dean Solomon have the same result at Essendon? The trip out west is never easy, but West Coast will be wary of a Bombers side that has a big point to prove after a humiliating loss to Richmond and the sacking of Senior Coach Brad Scott during the week.
However, the injury crisis has struck again at the Hangar with a number of notable absences including skipper Andrew McGrath, Sam Durham and Matt Guelfi whilst Archie May and Jye Caldwell will face a test to be deemed fit to play. It’s not good reading for Bombers fans who have been starved of much to celebrate for some time.
West Coast continue to enjoy a bit of a mid-season resurgence in form as they challenged Collingwood right to the final siren, nearly upsetting Scott Pendlebury’s celebrations. The young guns have been solid, but perhaps it’s been the form of some of the Eagles senior players that has been most encouraging. Liam Duggan, Elliot Yeo and Tim Kelly have all stepped up in recent weeks and have shown the footy world that on their day, the Eagles have a brand of football that can challenge opposition.
Essendon have won their last 5 matches in a row against West Coast…can the new coach bounce get them across the line to make it 6? The injury list and West Coast’s improved form would say it’s unlikely… but not impossible.
Prediction: West Coast by 8 points.
Harry Cumming
Byes
- Adelaide
- North Melbourne
- Port Adelaide
- Gold Coast
