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White Ferns LIVE on SN ExtraWho wins & why? Tips & predictions for Opening Round, 2026
SEN • March 5th, 2026 12:08 pm
And just like that the 2026 AFL season is here!
It all kicks off on Thursday night with the much-anticipated clash between Sydney and Carlton, much of the focus surrounding new Swan and former Blue Charlie Curnow.
Gold Coast hosts Geelong on Friday night before a Saturday double header featuring GWS v Hawthorn and back-to-back premiers Brisbane at home to the Western Bulldogs.
The weekend wraps up with the first Opening Round fixture in Melbourne when a stocked up St Kilda meets Collingwood at the MCG on Sunday night.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
SYDNEY v CARLTON
Thursday - 7:30pm AEDT - SCG
It has been a busy off-season for the Swans who landed big fish Charlie Curnow as well as under-the-radar signings Malcolm Rosas and Jai Serong. With a fully fit (fingers crossed) Errol Gulden and a season to bed in under Dean Cox, many critics suggest the Swans are set to bounce back swiftly in 2026. Their recoil begins tonight.
It’s been a sharp off-season for the Blues who knocked off back-to-back premiers the Brisbane Lions and reigning Grand Finalist Geelong in their two practice matches. Plenty of personnel change highlighted by Curnow’s move to Sydney. They added Will Hayward and Ollie Florent (from the Swans), Ben Ainsworth (from Gold Coast), Liam Reidy (from Fremantle), Campbell Chesser (from West Coast), ex-Giant Wade Derksen (SSP) and drafted father-son talent Harry Dean. Throw in exciting debutant Jagga Smith and it’s a new-look Carlton in 2026. But will it be coach Michael Voss’ final season at the helm?
There is so much hope and hype surrounding both sides. Can the Swans rocket back into premiership calculations? Will the Blues return to September action? Sydney’s run of eight wins from their last 11 suggests they are now comfortable under Cox. With all their stars to choose from there could be a class gulf at the SCG in the first serious fixture of 2026.
The pre-season lid has been off at Princes Park but the Swans should be good enough to pop it back on.
Prediction: Sydney by 26 points.
Andrew Slevison
GOLD COAST v GEELONG
Friday - 8:05pm AEDT - People First Stadium
Off the back of a heart-breaking Grand Final defeat, Geelong enters the new season with sustained high hopes. The side failed to claim victory in both their pre-season bouts, however have confirmed that both Bailey Smith and Jeremy Cameron are set to return from injuries that held them out of their preparations. Tyson Stengle remains out of the side due to personal issues, while Tanner Bruhn is set to make a much anticipated return.
The Suns enter the new season with a range of new talents, stealing headlines over the off-season with major acquisitions across the board. Superstar Christian Petracca is set to make his debut, while former first overall pick Jamarra Ugle-Hagan will have to wait for a potential return to senior football after a tumultuous 2025 off-field. Top pick Zeke Uwland will also debut, however, the Suns will be without Brownlow Medallist Matt Rowell due to injury.
Two of the Premiership favourites, the new kids on the block host the runners up in a clash of titans to open their campaigns. A collective of the Suns’ fresh faces find their way into the starting 23 headlined by Petracca, and in choosing not to put any weight on pre-season, it’s yet to be seen what the pair might add to this already stacked side. As for the Cats, the timely returns of Smith and Cameron offer a significant boost from their pre-season misfortunes, however, questions surrounding the health and readiness of their stars remain.
In what is predicted to be a very wet contest up north, both sides have plenty to prove, but we like the building Suns to open their campaign victorious.
Prediction: Gold Coast by 15 points.
GWS v HAWTHORN
Saturday - 4:15pm AEDT - ENGIE Stadium
Following an injury-riddled pre-season at the Giants, Opening Round cannot come fast enough for coach Adam Kingsley.
With Tom Green, Sam Taylor and Toby Bedford some of the players affected, GWS will be required to use their youth, depth and recruits to the fullest extent throughout the early stages of the season. One of those players will be former Demons midfielder Clayton Oliver, who makes his official debut in orange and charcoal after a strong pre-season.
Off the back of their Preliminary Final appearance last year, the Hawks are chomping at the bit to go one better in 2026.
Despite not adding any players through the trade period, their list is well-positioned for another deep finals run under coach Sam Mitchell, despite their struggles against the Bulldogs in their most recent pre-season match.
Their premiership pursuit has been made harder by star midfielder Will Day suffering a shoulder injury which will sideline him for a while.
Following their Elimination Final loss to Hawthorn, the Giants will be keen on dishing out some revenge in Opening Round.
Both midfield groups have been diminished by injuries, but the Tribunal's clearing of Jai Newcombe does give the Hawks a boost, particularly in the clearance department - an area in which GWS has previously struggled without Tom Green.
With Hawthorn winning their first game at ENGIE Stadium last year, the home ground advantage is not as strong as it once was, which should see the Hawks start 2026 with a win.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 20 points.
Nicholas Quinlan
BRISBANE v WESTERN BULLDOGS
Saturday - 7:35pm AEDT - Gabba
Coming off back-to-back flags, Brisbane begin their quest for a three-peat at home against the Western Bulldogs. Entering 2026 as the team to beat, the Lions only got better in the off-season, bringing in the likes of Oscar Allen who is set to play his first game for the club.
Chris Fagan’s side is star-studded throughout and has the firepower to outscore any side, particularly at home. The Lions also enter 2026 with a relatively healthy injury list, with most picking them as their early premiership tip.
On the other hand, Luke Beveridge’s side is one of the most intriguing entering the 2026 season. Full to the brim with top-end talent, many think this is the year that the Dogs truly contend again and make a run at the premiership.
With a midfield to die for led by Marcus Bontempelli and the best young forward in the AFL in Sam Darcy, the Dogs appear to have the ingredients to match it with the best. Can they take the leap to join the competition’s elite?
Just about the best man-for-man matchup on paper, this game could be an offensive showcase if both teams fire at the Gabba. While the Dogs on their day can beat any team, there won’t be many tipping against the Lions after what they showed us less than six months ago on Grand Final day.
Brisbane’s elite midfield depth should see them at the very least match it with the Dogs around the ball, and their small forwards absolutely have enough goals in them to trouble any defence.
Prediction: Brisbane by 28 points.
Lachlan Geleit
ST KILDA v COLLINGWOOD
Sunday - 7:20 AEDT - MCG
St Kilda enter the 2026 season as one of the most intriguing teams in the competition. After a huge off-season bringing Tom De Koning, Sam Flanders, Liam Ryan and Jack Silvagni into the club, the Saints are expected to rise the ladder this year. However, the most exciting part about St Kilda is none other than Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera. After a stellar 2025 season, Wanganeen-Milera proved that his form did not fall off over the break, booting four goals along with 28 disposals in St Kilda’s pre-season match against Essendon. The Saints will be electric to watch this season.
Despite the Pies coming off a Grand Final in 2023 and a Preliminary Final last year, Collingwood have flown relatively under the radar this off-season. Much like the Saints, the Pies were also busy with list movements after their 2025 season, delisting notable names like Mason Cox, Tom Mitchell, Oleg Markov, Finlay Macrae and Ash Johnson. On top of that, Will Hoskin-Elliott retired and Brody Mihocek was traded to Melbourne. While many pundits expect Collingwood to slide this year, they are still one of the highly talented teams in the competition and have finals expectations on their heads once again.
St Kilda will look to start their season with a bang. Hosting arguably the biggest game of Opening Round at the MCG, the Saints could break their club record for most-attended home game in the home and away season. With Collingwood expected to slightly slide this year and St Kilda on the up, this game will be close, but the Saints should come away with the win here.
The Pies will be without captain Darcy Moore and veteran Jeremy Howe, leaving a gap in their backline. Expect an electric game with a ripping atmosphere and the Saints to walk away with the four points.
Prediction: St Kilda by 19 points.
Connor Scanlon
