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Who will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Round 9
SEN • May 8th, 2025 12:50 pm
Round 9 action commences on Thursday night when Fremantle hosts Collingwood in Perth.
The St Kilda v Carlton clash on Friday night presents plenty of intrigue before the Showdown highlights the Saturday fixtures.
Geelong v GWS at GMHBA is the pick of the Sunday matches in what promises to be another fascinating weekend of footy.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
Fremantle v Collingwood
Thursday - 8:10pm AEST - Optus Stadium
Fremantle has failed to capitalise on an abundance of talent so far in 2025.
Through eight games the Dockers have won just four, two of which came against Richmond and West Coast while collapsing against top-end teams. Handed a prime-time slot in Round 8, Fremantle fell heavily to the Saints, capitulating in the midfield to fall by 61 points at Marvel. Losing Hayden Young does coach Justin Longmuir no favours in mending their poor form, however with a list as strong as Fremantle’s, expect a response.
Collingwood have re-established themselves as one of the best teams in the competition despite a heartbreaking their three-point loss to Geelong. Jack Crisp had the chance to steal the win after the siren in his record-breaking game, missing right to see the Pies slip into second place on the ladder. With an ageing list, coach Craig McRae has opted to rest a number of senior players for this clash, with Scott Pendlebury, Jordan De Goey, Brody Mihocek and Brayden Maynard all set to miss.
This clash presents a difficult task to differentiate. In recent years, Collingwood have very rarely taken the field without the likes of Pendlebury and Maynard, so despite their evident talent and strong form, the notable absentees might prove a challenge for McRae’s men.
As for Fremantle, a response must be imminent. Longmuir’s Dockers will look to bounce back from their horrific performance against the Saints on home soil.
The last meeting between the two clubs was a draw in Perth in Round 11 last year. Expect this again to be close, but against the undermanned Magpies, and with fire in the belly, the Dockers have the chance to pull off a special win.
Prediction: Fremantle by 11 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
St Kilda v Carlton
Friday - 7:40pm AEST - MCG
It’s been a tale of very different run-ins to this game for the Saints and Blues.
While Carlton are 3-1 in their last four and St Kilda are 1-3 over the same stretch, they enter this clash after very different Round 8 results.
The Saints won their most recent game by a whopping 61 points against Fremantle, while Carlton went down by 60 to Adelaide away from home.
That alone makes this game incredibly difficult to pick. But if we look a little further back across the season to date, it’s the Saints who have performed better against what you’d consider good opposition.
For the Blues, they’ve struggled mightily in attack apart from that three-week stretch, and they’ll need to recapture some spark up forward against the Saints if they’re to pick up their fourth win of the season.
While the Saints have been defensively poor for most of the campaign, last Friday’s Ross Lyon masterclass saw them keep Freo to just 33 points. If they get close to that kind of defensive buy-in again, they’ll win.
The game is Carlton’s if their big guns all perform well, but if we’re looking at a pure style matchup, the Saints are every chance.
Even though the Blues are considered favourites, there’s something about the Saints’ performance from last week that has to be repeatable.
Prediction: St Kilda 10 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Melbourne v Hawthorn
Saturday - 1:20pm AEST - MCG
Melbourne has sneakily ticked off three straight wins after a dismal beginning to the season. They did the business against West Coast last weekend to keep that winning feeling flowing.
Captain Max Gawn has been absolutely colossal to coincide with that streak which has the Dees just a win and percentage outside the top eight.
There was more talk surrounding Clayton Oliver’s future during the week so it will be interesting to see; 1) if he returns to the team, and 2) how that chatter impacts his performance if he does
Hawthorn celebrated its 100-year anniversary with a dominant victory over Richmond at the MCG last Sunday. After losing two on the trot, the Hawks have roared back to life with successive 50-plus point triumphs. That has Sam Mitchell’s men again entrenched in the top four.
The most pleasing aspects of the Tigers win would be the return to form of Changkuoth Jiath, Massimo D’Ambrosio and Jack Ginnivan who challenged Josh Battle for best-on-ground honours. There is a lot to like about the Hawks right now.
As far as dominance over another team goes, the Demons have it in spades when it comes to the Hawks. The red and blue have not lost to the brown and gold since 2018 - a streak that has delivered eight wins and a draw. In Round 2 last year, the Dees were irrepressible in winning by 55 points at the MCG with Christian Petracca best afield.
While they’ll fancy their chances to knock off the Hawks for an eighth straight season, they meet a Hawthorn outfit in god enough nick to turn the tide.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 22 points.
Andrew Slevison
Essendon v Sydney
Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
Despite winning four of their last five games, Essendon are still far from where they’d like to be. Wins against West Coast and North Melbourne with a combined margin of five points either side of a 41-point Anzac Day loss make for less than impressive reading.
But it’s never a bad thing to be getting wins in close games.
Jye Caldwell is a welcome return for Brad Scott who will be hoping to cover for the loss of Harrison Jones and Jade Gresham in last week’s clash.
It felt as though the Swans recaptured some mojo against GWS. It was as if they needed to beat their little brothers to remember the powerhouse they can be.
Sydney’s record at Marvel Stadium is genuinely impressive – they have won seven of their last eight and 73 per cent overall in the last five seasons. Despite their makeshift forward line and injuries to their midfield and defence, they have managed to find some new talent more than capable of holding up the ship in the meantime.
Essendon have won two of their last six at Marvel and we know how good the Swans are here. Even with such a brutal injury list, Dean Cox’s men have an edge on the Bombers and will be very confident they can make it two on the trot.
Essendon’s handball game will have to be on-point to restrict Sydney from controlling the ball by foot if they are any chance here. Swans to get the chocolates at their home away from home.
Prediction: Sydney by 35 points.
Ethan Clark
Gold Coast v Western Bulldogs
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - TIO Stadium
Saturday night’s thriller sees two of the competition’s form teams face off at TIO Stadium in Darwin.
The Suns fell short in a slippery Q-Clash last Sunday night, with their midfield failing to fire against the Lions.
Matt Rowell has had a very tame run of form following a dominant start to the season, with just 16 disposals in back-to-back weeks. If the Suns want to hold this clash on their terms, Rowell will need to return to top form to compete with the Bulldogs’ elite midfield.
As a result, Ben King was held to just two disposals as the Suns failed to get their danger man involved.
While they have looked like a top team thus far, there were plenty of learnings to take from their loss to the reigning premiers.
As for the Dogs, they enter this contest in hot form, establishing themselves as one of the teams to beat following the return of superstar skipper Marcus Bontempelli.
Their 90-point demolition of Port Adelaide was as good a performance as we’ve seen all year, and it feels as though it won’t be the last of such performances this season.
After eight games, the Bulldogs have a league-high nine players with 50 or more score involvements, putting into perspective their dominance ahead of the football.
While both teams will most certainly find themselves in September, the Bulldogs’ current run of form sees them enter this clash as favourites, and while conditions might suit the northerners, expect another classy performance from the Dogs.
Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 23 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
Port Adelaide v Adelaide
Saturday - 8:10pm AEST - Adelaide Oval
Even though Showdowns offer up some pretty intriguing results, Adelaide deserve to enter as pretty heavy favourites.
Last week alone, the Power went down by 90 points to the Dogs while the Crows beat the Blues by 10 goals, and what the teams have been this year is shown in percentage, with Adelaide’s sitting at 131.8 compared to Port’s 87.9.
Adelaide’s trump card sits in their forward line, and they remain the league’s best attacking team. Port Adelaide probably has the bigger names and more firepower on-ball.
If the Power can turn the game into a contested slog, they’re every chance. If the game gets onto the outside and the Crows can feed their forwards, this one will be over very quickly.
Adelaide also has a very good recent record in Showdowns, winning four of the last six meetings between the crosstown rivals.
While the Power have shown they can beat anyone if they absolutely fire, you just can’t trust them enough to know when that kind of performance is coming.
The pick here has to be Adelaide because of that.
Prediction: Adelaide by 23 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Richmond v West Coast
Sunday - 1:10pm AEST - MCG
Richmond hosts West Coast in the battle of the rebuilds at the MCG on Sunday afternoon.
The Tigers enter as favourites for the first time this season against a winless Eagles outfit coached by Andrew McQualter, who is no stranger to the yellow and black.
The former Richmond assistant and interim coach has seen his Eagles side struggle across their eight games so far in 2025, failing to bank any premiership points while winning just three of 32 quarters.
Adem Yze’s Tigers have similarly struggled at times, but their best form has seen them pocket two against-the-odds victories against Carlton and Gold Coast. Those experiences will be invaluable for the emerging Tiger cubs.
Last week they were humbled by a rampaging Hawthorn having been somewhat competitive in the first half. In order to beat the Eagle, they’ll need to be better for longer and avoid the capitulations that have been evident in their game in recent times.
They can take with them the knowledge that they’ve beaten the Eagles in four of the past five meetings, although they were comfortably beaten by 39 points in Perth in Round 5 last year.
It’ll be a fascinating contest between two clubs reassembling themselves for the future.
Right now, the Tigers seem to be slightly more advanced than the Eagles, and couple that with a home game at the ‘G, you have to side with the yellow and black.
Prediction: Richmond by 10 points.
Andrew Slevison
Geelong v GWS
Sunday - 3:20pm AEST - GMHBA Stadium
2022 is a stark reminder of what happens when the Cats get hot…
Fresh off a stellar victory over Collingwood in arguably the game of the season, Geelong has won four of their last five, all against formidable opposition, and aren’t showing any signs of slowing down.
They’ll welcome a GWS squad in dire need of a reset, having dropped their last three games in a series of performances that have been far from inspiring.
The Giants have seen their formerly potent attack completely stymied of late, averaging just 62.6 points during this three-game slide, a far cry from the 97.4 points per game they’d been putting up through their first five clashes.
While the Cats haven’t been mind-blowingly stingy so far this season, they’ve certainly been stellar at keeping the Giants under control recently, conceding triple figures to GWS just once in the entire history of this matchup.
Despite this, the Giants have put together a remarkable record recently when heading down to the Cattery, winning their last four games at GMHBA Stadium.
While that is undoubtedly one of the AFL’s most impressive ongoing road streaks, it looks set to come crashing down on Sunday, with the Cats simply looking the much better side heading into the round.
Expect GWS to put up a fight, but you should be able chalk up Geelong’s sixth win of the season this weekend.
Prediction: Geelong by 17 points.
Jack Makeham
North Melbourne v Brisbane
Sunday - 4:40pm AEST - Ninja Stadium
The Round 9 closer takes us down to Hobart, but don’t expect a thriller.
Brisbane are purring along at 7-1, while North Melbourne are conversely 1-7.
With the Roos managing just 16 wins in their last 114 games, don’t anticipate they'll be turning around their form here against Brisbane.
The Lions flexed their muscle last week against a sharp Gold Coast side and did it without even hitting top gear. That’s the scary part about this team.
When this Brisbane outfit finally hits full stride, they’ll remind everyone why they’re the reigning premiers - and Hobart might be the launchpad.
Albeit, North Melbourne deserve credit for their recent efforts. Narrow losses to Essendon and Port Adelaide show a team that’s beginning to compete. But improvement doesn’t equal wins, and it certainly doesn’t guarantee success against a well-drilled powerhouse like Brisbane.
The Lions lead the comp in marks per game, and that methodical control should slowly suffocate the Kangaroos here. Expect Brisbane to own the tempo and dictate the game from siren to siren.
If North are any chance, it’ll come from elite execution. They’re the AFL’s best in disposal efficiency and third in goal efficiency. But with Paul Curtis still sidelined through suspension, the Kangaroos are again without one of their few sparks.
Sam Day will miss for the Lions, but they could regain serious talent with Kai Lohmann, Logan Morris, Tom Doedee, Keidean Coleman and Darcy Fort all pushing for selection.
George Wardlaw’s likely return will excite North fans, and there’s selection pressure from Zac Fisher, Aidan Corr and Wil Dawson, while Jackson Archer will miss through injury.
This one won’t require much guesswork. Expect the Lions to cruise to a professional, polished victory.
Prediction: Brisbane by 39 points.
Connor Scanlon
