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Sport Nation
Who will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Round 4
SEN • April 3rd, 2025 11:06 am
Round 4 is here and some cracking games await us this weekend.
Things kick off on Thursday night between Collingwood and Carlton in what will be an MCG blockbuster.
Friday plays host to Geelong v Melbourne at GMHBA Stadium in what looms as a huge game for both clubs.
Saturday sees undefeated outfits Gold Coast and Adelaide face off, while Sunday's highlight is the Freo v Dogs clash at Optus Stadium.
Essendon and Hawthorn take the week off with the bye after their Opening Round schedules.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
Collingwood v Carlton
Thursday - 7:30pm AEDT – MCG
Footy’s oldest rivalry is reignited on Thursday night and what a huge game this is for Carlton.
After slumping to a 0-3 start after dropping games against Richmond, Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs, the Blues simply must win to get their season back on track and relieve the pressure that’s on the football club.
It won’t come easy though as they face a 2-1 Collingwood side that is coming off the Round 3 bye. Unlike their opponents, the Magpies are close to full strength from an injury perspective, and they’ll be refreshed after taking the week off.
Looking at this match-up tactically, the Blues – who have won just two of their last 12 games – are yet to score more than 75 in any of their games so far in 2025. They must to improve on that if they’re to beat the Magpies.
Conversely, the Magpies have been strong defensively in their last two games while giving their forwards plenty of avenues to goal. If they can repeat this against the Blues, who they’ve beaten in five of their last six attempts, they’ll feel they can improve to 3-1.
If we’re just lining up the records of these teams, Collingwood are deserved favourites. Dating back to Round 20, 2024 the Magpies are 6-2, while the Blues are 1-8 (including a final).
While all of that must be taken into account, these games between traditional rivals often throw up unique results and there’s no doubt that Carlton will be desperate to respond.
Collingwood will back themselves to kick a winning score, can Carlton get enough from their smaller forwards to compete? If so, this is game on. If not, the Magpies should be too strong.
Prediction: Collingwood by 20 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Geelong v Melbourne
Friday - 7:40pm AEDT – GMHBA Stadium
Geelong have provided a mix bag over their first three games of the season, tallying just the one win in Round 1 before falling twice in two contests decided by two kicks.
After a ripping start, dominating the Dockers by 78 points, the Cats failed to spark against the Saints in Round 2 and were unable to stay alight against the Lions, falling in their Round 3 contest by nine points after entering half-time with a strong advantage.
Coach Chris Scott will be seeking further contributions from his side, with Jeremy Cameron failing to impact (eight disposals, one goal), and Bailey Smith struggling with disposal under difficult conditions (25 disposals at 28 per cent efficiency). A returning Tom Stewart will provide a major boost for the Cats as they look to defend their home base.
It has been a disastrous start for Simon Goodwin’s men, failing to claim a win through three games in 2025. After a poor loss to North Melbourne in Round 2, the Demons were expected to respond, however fell drastically to what was a much better Gold Coast side. In Jake Lever’s absence, Melbourne was unable to stem the free-flowing Suns, as the Demons’ traditionally strong midfield core were dominated comfortably. Clayton Oliver managed 31 disposals in the contest, and Jake Bowey pulled together a very strong performance (26 disposals, one goal), but the Dees need plenty of improvement after a stuttering to the season.
There is a lot to prove for both sides in this Friday night clash in Geelong. For the Cats, what appeared to be another competitive season post Round 1 has taken a major hit, dropping consecutive contests that could very easily have gone the other way.
As for the Demons, a winless start leaves a plethora of questions regarding the status of the list at Simon Goodwin’s disposal. A loss here may signify an abrupt ending to a strong era of Demons football, however an era that left so much on the table. With the Cats putting in a respectable performance against the reigning premiers despite the loss, and the anticipated return of Tom Stewart, this is a contest destined to pull Geelong’s September charge back on track.
What that means for the Demons? We are destined to find out.
Prediction: Geelong by 34 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
Gold Coast v Adelaide
Saturday - 1:20pm AEDT – People First Stadium
Gold Coast's two wins with a combined 145-point margin makes for easy reading; however, they have come against a lowly West Coast and a disheartened Melbourne. This seems a much tougher test for the disciplined and systematic Suns.
Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell are both in the top five for average disposals per game, while Ben King is sitting second on the Coleman Medal with 10 goals in two games. This firepower is evident across all lines of this Suns side and will hold them in good stead against a similarly hot Adelaide.
Josh Rachele’s rib injury is the first hiccup in a flawless season thus far. All aspects of the game are firing for Matthew Nicks’ men, and they will be keen to put it to the test at a venue they have traditionally struggled at.
They broke another hoodoo at the MCG against Essendon and would be confident they can bring their style of play to any ground in the country. It’s only early but we cannot deny the compelling Crows until they give us a reason to.
Two of the hottest teams in the comp come together for what will be a telling clash. Gold Coast won their first seven games at PFS last year but lost their last two. Meanwhile, the Crows haven’t won a match at the ground since July 2019.
The victor here will validate their top four credentials and with the relative lack of injuries on both lists, it should be a high-class clash played at finals-like intensity.
This is anyone’s guess but if the Crows can match the Suns midfield and beat them on the outside, their humming forward line can wreak yet more havoc.
Prediction: Adelaide by 4 points.
Ethan Clark
Richmond v Brisbane
Saturday - 4:15pm AEDT – MCG
After a dream start to 2025 when knocking off Carlton, the season has turned very quickly for the Tigers. A 72-point loss to Port Adelaide preceded an 82-point drubbing at the hands of St Kilda last Saturday.
Adem Yze’s side trailed by eight points at half-time before they were obliterated by a 14-goal Saints onslaught, the Tigers kicking just two themselves. The Rhyan Mansell drama is now behind them and the unenviable task of a 3-0 Lions back at the MCG is next on the agenda.
The reigning premiers have already had plenty to deal with in the early stages of their title defence. They’ve handled a postponed fixture, key in-game injuries and found themselves behind at half-time in each of their three triumphs. Last weekend’s comeback win over Geelong was courageous, kicking seven goals to two in the second half to get up by nine points. They’ve had three stern tests so far, now they get a struggling Tigers at the scene of their greatest recent accomplishment.
The Lions have plenty of players in form, highlighted by Hugh McCluggage, Will Ashcroft, Josh Dunkley, Harris Andrews and Dayne Zorko. On the opposite end, Toby Nankervis has been flying the flag for Richmond, and the captain needs help. Yze’s Tigers were competitive for a half against the Saints and they’ll need a lot more to go toe-to-toe with Chris Fagan’s Lions. It might be a contest early but the cream should rise to the top.
Prediction: Brisbane by 54 points.
Andrew Slevison
North Melbourne v Sydney
Saturday - 7:35pm AEDT – Marvel Stadium
Despite their large win against Melbourne in Round 2, North Melbourne fans would be disappointed with their other two results, most recently the 36-point defeat to Adelaide.
A response against the Swans this week is a must.
The Kangaroos have been solid to begin the season, ranking top five in clearances, contested possessions and scores from stoppage to begin the 2025 season.
Notably, the Roos have averaged 27 points per game from centre bounce after three games which ranks first in the competition.
It is something that Alastair Clarkson’s men will look to take into their Round 4 clash with confidence, as the Swans rank mid table in the competition when it comes to defending scores from that part of the ground.
Sydney, however, will look to showcase their immense ability to transition the ball from their backline to their forward line with constant succession, as they rank fourth for rebound 50s and rebound 50 rate so far in the league.
This is something the Kangaroos have struggled to contain after three rounds, with the young side ranking 13th when it comes to defending scores from their defensive half this season.
Efficiency going forward will be a big focus for the Roos this week. Because if they can deliver on that, then Sydney’s strength can be limited enough to ensure a win is a major possibility.
With Tom Papley ruled out and captain Callum Mills set to miss another week, it may be a tough task for the Swans to back up their impressive win away from home over the Dockers as they embark on another road trip.
Prediction: North Melbourne by 10 points.
Zac Sharpe
GWS v West Coast
Sunday - 1:10pm AEDT – ENGIE Stadium
Don’t spend too much time fretting over the result here - GWS will win, it’s just a matter of by how much.
The Giants completely outclass the Eagles in every area of the ground and returning to ENGIE Stadium, they’ll be keen to get back on the winners’ list in a big way.
This is the first time these teams have faced off at the venue since 2022. In that match the Giants were victorious by 52 points and we can probably expect a similar margin again.
If the Eagles are even a chance of competing, they’re going to need a lot more from two of their stars that haven’t really fired a shot in 2025 in Oscar Allen and Harley Reid. Both have found themselves in the media in recent weeks and they’ll be desperate to get a good performance underneath them to help block out the outside noise.
After watching what GWS did to Collingwood at ENGIE Stadium during Opening Round, this one could get very ugly if they can reproduce anything close to that on Sunday afternoon.
Prediction: GWS by 51 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Port Adelaide v St Kilda
Sunday - 3:20pm AEDT – Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval is never an easy task, but St Kilda are coming in hot!
The Saints have strung together two statement wins, knocking off premiership contenders Geelong before dismantling Richmond by 82 points. Their ball movement has been electric, and the 135-point haul against the Tigers was their highest score in over a decade.
Port Adelaide, on the other hand, have been inconsistent. A 91-point thrashing at the hands of Collingwood was followed by a dominant win over Richmond, only to be undone by a narrow loss to Essendon. The Power have won six of their last seven at home, including their 72-point demolition of Richmond, but their form remains unpredictable.
Lachie Jones could return from injury for Port, though they remain without Zak Butters, Todd Marshall, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher and Ryan Burton. St Kilda, meanwhile, are also undermanned, with Max King, Dougal Howard, Mattaes Phillipou, Paddy Dow and Hunter Clark sidelined. However, captain Jack Steele who was a late out last week due to a knee injury, is potentially available for selection, alongside Dan Butler, Liam Stocker and Liam Henry.
The key to victory for St Kilda lies in their rapid ball movement, which has proven deadly when executed well. But it also leaves them vulnerable defensively, with tall forwards often causing problems against their undersized backline. That’s where Port could strike, with Mitch Georgiades, Ivan Soldo and Jordon Sweet set to take full advantage.
St Kilda’s record at Adelaide Oval is far from inspiring, losing five of their last six at the venue. But if they can dictate the tempo and run Port off their feet like Collingwood did, they may just get over the line.
Prediction: St Kilda by 17 points.
Connor Scanlon
Fremantle v Western Bulldogs
Sunday - 6:10pm AEDT – Optus Stadium
Now that the Dockers have finally notched a win in 2025, will they start to perform in the way most expected ahead of the season?
Fremantle’s beginning to 2025 was inauspicious, dropping their first two before stabilising in Round 3 by cruising to victory against West Coast in the Derby.
Yet they’ll have their hands full this week as they welcome a Bulldogs side that simply refuses to back down despite missing several top-liners.
The Doggies are fresh off a spirited comeback effort against Carlton, erasing an early four-goal deficit to send the Blues’ season into a downright free-fall.
In the absence of Marcus Bontempelli, Adam Treloar and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Luke Beveridge has drawn stellar performances out of more unheralded Dogs such as Sam Davidson and Matt Kennedy, all while Tom Liberatore and Sam Darcy make their marks with expanded roles.
However, it’s unlikely that the Bulldogs will be able to keep this up for such an extended period, and Fremantle’s star-studded midfield and stingy backline seems like the perfect foil for Bevo’s men.
Expect the Dogs to put up a fight, but it should be the Dockers’ game to lose on Sunday night.
Prediction: Fremantle by 11 points.
Jack Makeham
BYES: Essendon, Hawthorn.
