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Who will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Round 21
SEN • July 31st, 2025 12:50 pm
Round 21 is upon us as things really heat up ahead of the finals.
With teams jostling for positions inside the top eight, this round has several matches which could make or break campaigns for multiple teams.
Thursday plays host to the ninth-placed Bulldogs meeting the sixth-placed Giants, while Friday has huge top-four ramifications as the fifth-placed Hawks head to Adelaide to face the second-placed Crows.
Saturday's highlight is the top three battle between the Magpies and Lions, while the Cats and Dockers must win to keep their heads above water on Sunday afternoon.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
Western Bulldogs v GWS
Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
The season is beginning to look rather bleak for the Western Bulldogs.
Despite their immense talent across the park, the Dogs sit a game outside the eight in the dreaded ninth position, shaping to be the unlucky club to miss out on a September run. While their strong percentage might suggest that the Dogs have had a rather strong season, their record against the best says otherwise, having lost eight of their nine bouts against top eight opposition.
If any chance of making the final cut, the Dogs cannot afford to lose another game.
GWS have hit season-best form at the perfect time. Following a disappointing loss to Port Adelaide in Round 13, the Giants have won six straight, including meetings with Brisbane, Gold Coast, Geelong and their cross-town rivals in Sydney after a second-half comeback.
Sitting in sixth place, two games ahead of the drop with two highly winnable fixtures, a place in September appears favourable, however the Giants will be without defender Jack Buckley and midfielder Josh Kelly, both sidelined for the remainder of the home and away season with calf concerns. Captain Toby Greene will also miss Round 21 with suspension.
This contest presents as the ultimate September shape-up, with two sides playing out for a coveted spot in the top eight. For the Bulldogs, it’s do or die, with a win keeping them well and truly in contention, and a loss all but ruling them out of the fight.
As for the Giants, their elite form will have them in good stead to charge home, however numerous key outs certainly throw a spanner in the works for coach Adam Kingsley. It’s a clash that could go either way, but given the incredibly high stakes for the Bulldogs’ season, along with their home ground advantage, we like the Doggies in a tight battle.
Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 7 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
Adelaide v Hawthorn
Friday - 7:40pm AEST - Adelaide Oval
Didn’t the Crows make a powerful statement last weekend?!
They demolished Port Adelaide by 98 points in a record Showdown result, overcoming the torrid conditions to assert their authority. It was a third straight score of 100 or more – their attacking game is seriously good.
Riley Thilthorpe was colossal with three goals while Ben Keays (three goals, 21 disposals) was as ferocious as ever and veteran Taylor Walker had a say with three majors of his own. Things are in great order under Matty Nicks.
The Hawks did what they needed to do against Carlton in Round 20. Sam Mitchell’s side put the foot on the gas early, got themselves over 40 points up in the second term, then managed the game nicely from there.
That win has them peeking over the shoulder of the top four teams, making this clash with the Crows quite significant. The last time the Hawks were in Adelaide (in Round 5) they lost to Port by 30 points…
The last time these two sides met in Round 14 was a less than memorable occasion in Tasmania. The Hawks got up by three points (47-44) in a dour struggle, marking their third straight win over the Crows.
Fast forward seven weeks and it is the league’s third highest scoring and second best defensive team (the Crows) at home against the competition’s third best defensive team (the Hawks). This is monumental for top-four machinations with the second-placed Crows and their scoring power to hold the fifth-placed Hawks at bay.
Prediction: Adelaide by 17 points.
Andrew Slevison
Melbourne v West Coast
Saturday - 1:20pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
Melbourne are still in recovery mode following one of the most shocking collapses in AFL history, choking a 46-point three-quarter time lead to St Kilda.
As a result the Demons became the victims of the greatest comeback ever in AFL/VFL history. But strip away that final term, and the Dees had played three extremely dominant quarters of footy.
It’s been the story of their season - flashes of brilliance undone by multiple costly lapses. While their best is clearly good enough, it’s the inconsistency that continues to haunt them and hold them back from winning games.
It’s been another tough year for West Coast, who sit dead last with just one win. This victory came way back in Round 10 against St Kilda, and since then, it’s been a horror run. The Eagles have nine losses by 40 points or more and the most points conceded in the league.
Andrew McQualter’s side looks destined for a second wooden spoon in three years, and with their season long gone, the Eagles are simply searching for something positive to take from their nightmare year.
Melbourne now return to Marvel Stadium this week for a rare home game at the venue, and despite not winning there since 2023, this shapes as the perfect chance to break that streak.
The Dees face a struggling West Coast side anchored to the bottom of the ladder, having conceded more points than any other team. After a disappointing fade-out last round, expect Melbourne to respond with intent, using this matchup to send a statement to the AFL world that last week was just a hiccup.
A complete four-quarter performance awaits...
Prediction: Melbourne by 41 points.
Connor Scanlon
Gold Coast v Richmond
Saturday - 4:10pm AEST - People First Stadium
Damien Hardwick welcomes his former club Richmond to Gold Coast this Saturday, and the Suns will be feeling pretty good about themselves.
Gold Coast had perhaps their most impressive win in club history last weekend, beating their big brother Brisbane by 66 points in a home Q-Clash.
The victory signalled that the Suns are finally ready to break their finals duck as they enter Round 21 with a 12-6 record.
While they’re playing some good footy, they must keep winning to begin securing a top eight spot as they’re only a game ahead of ninth despite having an extra match in hand.
Looking at their opposition, Richmond would be pleased with their performance in Round 20 despite going down to Collingwood by 36 points.
The defeat to the ladder-leaders was expected, and Tigers fans would have been happy to see how well the side appeared to hold up defensively.
Richmond won their previous two games before that loss, and are genuinely improving in the back end of the season despite entering this match in 16th with a 5-14 record. In a season all about youth development, Richmond fans have something to smile about.
Even though the Tigers have been impressive across their last three games, this is surely too tall a task up against a Gold Coast side that’s red-hot.
Gold Coast’s midfield is far too strong and Noah Anderson should look at this game as a real chance to make a Brownlow push given the Tigers allowed Nick Daicos to do as he pleased last weekend.
Gold Coast’s forwards will get far more opportunities than Richmond’s, if they’re even slightly efficient, they should win comfortably.
Prediction: Gold Coast by 42 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Sydney v Essendon
Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - SCG
After claiming the minor premiership and reaching the Grand Final last year, Sydney are set to miss finals in 2025 – a disappointing outcome driven largely by a brutal start to the season in which they lost eight of their first 12 games.
However, the Swans have rediscovered their form in recent weeks, winning five of their past seven matches. With key players returning from injury, like Errol Gulden, they’re slowly starting to resemble the side that took the competition by storm last year. Back at the SCG this week, where they’ve won their last two, the Swans will be eager to build momentum heading into the season's end.
For Essendon, this season has been less than desirable amid promising patches.
The Bombers, who have been smashed by injuries, have scored the second fewest points in the league and are in danger of finishing in the bottom four. Their 93-point defeat to the Western Bulldogs last week only highlighted the extent of their injury crisis, with 16 players currently sidelined. It’s a grim situation, but the silver lining is the exposure being given to their young talent, which could pay dividends in the years ahead.
One of Essendon’s six wins this season came against Sydney in Round 9. But much has changed since then. The Bombers' injury toll has blown up, and their competitiveness has dropped significantly, with heavy defeats becoming a regular occurrence.
While the finals are basically out of reach for the Swans, pride and momentum remain on the line. Against an undermanned Essendon outfit on their home deck, Sydney will be wanting to make a statement.
It may not be a classic, but the Swans should win convincingly in the end.
Prediction: Sydney by 37 points.
Connor Scanlon
Collingwood v Brisbane
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - MCG
A 2023 Grand Final rematch and a game that has mammoth top four ramifications.
While many still have both Collingwood and Brisbane as top premiership contenders, a loss here for either side could well and truly cost them what they need come finals time to get to the last Saturday in September.
The Magpies are coming off a win against Richmond, although in the two games prior to that, they lost to Gold Coast and Fremantle. Their top spot is now held by just one game, lose, and they're back to the pack.
For Brisbane, they're coming off a Q-Clash humiliation and will be desperate to bounce back. With so much to play for, this will be a must-watch.
The Magpies beat the Lions comfortably when the teams met on Easter Thursday at the Gabba as Brownlow favourite Nick Daicos ran riot. If Chris Fagan doesn't give him the respect he deserves again, the Magpies should be too strong.
Brisbane's strength lies in their depth on-ball and up forward, with the Magpies a little vulnerable if Daicos is shut down.
While Collingwood's form hasn't been brilliant in this last month, they could welcome back any of Scott Pendlebury, Jordan De Goey, Bobby Hill and important defender Billy Frampton for this clash. Those ins probably swing this one in their favour, particularly at the MCG.
Even though Brisbane absolutely can do this at their best, they won't get it done if they're anything under that, given Collingwood's consistency.
Prediction: Collingwood by 16 points.
Lachlan Geleit
St Kilda v North Melbourne
Sunday - 1:40pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
The confidence levels would be as high as they have been this season for St Kilda after an all-time come-from-behind victory last week against Melbourne.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera alone will be enough to cause North Melbourne even more headaches coming after the 101-point drubbing at the hands of Geelong last week - a season low.
With games coming up against Richmond and Essendon after this weekend, Ross Lyon’s men would be keen to finish the season on a positive note with a chunk of wins after a tough stretch of six games against quality sides prior to last week’s match.
Since North’s last win, they have lost five in a row by an average margin of 60.5 points; so a merely competitive showing here would be warmly welcomed.
Nick Larkey should return after three weeks on the sidelines which will be a much-needed boost for the Kangas who would be clinging on to any hope they can get, but no Tristan Xerri leaves a gaping hole.
Returning to the scene of last weekend’s historical heroics, the Saints should have what is needed to knock off the supremely low-on-confidence Kangaroos.
Prediction: St Kilda by 41 points.
Ethan Clark
Geelong v Port Adelaide
Sunday - 3:15pm AEST - GMHBA Stadium
Geelong finds itself in a gilt-edged position despite sitting in fourth spot.
The Cats demolished North Melbourne by 101 points last weekend with Jeremy Cameron dobbing 11 goals and Bailey Smith filling up with 43 touches.
But they need to keep winning if they want the prized double chance.
They do have a clear advantage at the moment. 49 goals in 10 games. That’s what the Power defenders must stop. Jezza Cameron is on an absolute tear.
His run of form kicked off with a bag of seven against Port back in Round 10. He can sniff the ton and will be hard for Port to hold out.
The Power were eviscerated by Adelaide to the tune of 98 points in a Showdown record.
It really can’t get any worse for Ken Hinkley’s men who must play for pride in his final four games in charge of the club.
Since they beat the Cats by a goal at GMHBA in Round 9 of 2024, they’ve been annihilated by Chris Scott’s side twice. It was 84 points in last year’s Qualifying Final. It was 76 points 11 weeks ago, also in Adelaide.
Given the mood the Cats have been in across the last four weeks (Giants loss aside), this could get potentially get ugly down at the Cattery.
They’re kicking 100-plus scores for fun and there is a golden opportunity to put a gap between themselves and the likes of Hawthorn (playing Adelaide) and GWS (playing the Bulldogs) who are knocking on the door of the four.
Geelong will get the job done.
Prediction: Geelong by 54 points.
Andrew Slevison
Fremantle v Carlton
Sunday - 5:10pm AEST - Optus Stadium
It was a case of same old Carlton last week with the Blues going down to Hawks by 24 points after a very disappointing first-half performance.
Carlton’s season is all but over with the side currently in 12th just 12 months after they were inside the top two and destined for a deep run in September. It appears Michael Voss is coaching for his future with incoming CEO Graham Wright set to decide if he is the one to lead the club into 2026.
Now is the time for the Blues to blood the kids and sell hope to fans that it isn’t all doom and gloom at IKON Park. Harry O’Farrell showed last week that he is one to get excited about with the Calder Cannons’ product collecting 19 disposals and 13 marks in the loss to the Hawks.
The Dockers still have plenty to play for and have won nine of their last 10 with a 49-point victory over West Coast last Saturday. Hayden Young’s return from injury has come at the perfect time of the year with the left footer dominating in the Derby with 23 disposals and three goals from just 57% time on ground
Another win would almost guarantee they’ll be back playing finals footy for just the second time in a decade - and second time since 2022.
While Carlton have had a few memorable wins over Fremantle in recent years (think Marc Murphy and Jack Newnes’ match-winning goals), its unlikely Fremantle would let this one slip at home especially with the form they are in and what they have to play for.
Prediction: Fremantle by 27 points
Luke Mathews
