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Find your frequency hereWho will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Round 20
SEN • July 24th, 2025 12:57 pm
Round 20 is upon us as things really heat up ahead of the finals.
With teams jostling for positions inside the top eight, this round has several matches which could make or break campaigns for multiple teams.
Things begin on Thursday with Hawthorn meeting Carlton in Sam Docherty’s last game, while Friday has two matches between the Dons and Dogs as well as the Giants v Swans.
Continuing that cross-town rivalry theme, Saturday hosts the Q-Clash, Western Derby and Showdown. Expect fireworks.
On Sunday, traditional rivals Collingwood meet Richmond for the first time in 2025.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
Hawthorn v Carlton
Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - MCG
The Hawks host the Blues in what may be a must-win contest for the September hopefuls.
With Adelaide, Collingwood, Melbourne and Brisbane to follow, Hawthorn have the most difficult run home of any team in the AFL, and currently sitting in fifth place - they simply cannot put a foot wrong in this clash.
Just two games ahead of the ninth-placed Bulldogs, Hawthorn simply need to win both this game and their contest with the Demons, otherwise their finals hopes may in jeopardy – given they fail to pull off a major scalp.
With the return of Will Day imminent and both Mabior Chol and Mitch Lewis finding fitness, they look in good shape to knock off the Blues, however Carlton have a renewed reason to challenge as hard as ever.
Having announced his retirement mid-week, Carlton hero Sam Docherty will be playing out his final AFL game on Thursday night, and if ever there was a time for the Blues to unite, it’s now.
The inspirational leader has fought for the Blues throughout the darkest of times, both for himself and for the club. The definition of heart and soul, there is absolutely no doubt that Carlton will fire up to send off the modern-day great.
It is also vice-captain Jacob Weitering's 200th game.
A side playing for their season versus a side playing for inspirational leaders… this one may not be as straightforward as previously assumed.
Simply focusing on the football, the Hawks shouldn't lose this one, but don't be surprised if the Blues provide an almighty scare.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 21 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
Essendon v Western Bulldogs
Friday - 7:420pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
It’s been a fair old grind for Essendon in recent times.
The Bombers have lost seven in a row while dealing with a glut of injuries and blooding plenty of debutants.
Last Thursday night they debuted Liam McMahon as their 13th first-gamer of 2025 - a remarkable stat only achieved once before by non-expansion clubs.
While it’s nice to get games into the youngsters, it’s also very hard to win in this situation. That task only gets more difficult for Brad Scott against a team that loves beating up on the lowly sides.
The Western Bulldogs have a well-documented 1-7 record against top eight teams so far this season.
On the flip side, they’re 9-0 against teams outside the eight with an average score of 133.3 and a percentage of 175.6. They love an easy kill.
They especially love one under the Marvel roof. Cast your mind back to Round 10 when they crushed the Dons by 91 points.
Luke Beveridge’s Dogs were pretty good against the Lions last week. But they lost. And they desperately need a win here to either keep in touch with the eight or even move themselves in.
Expect them to put the foot on the throat and make a statement as their September chase continues.
Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 52 points.
Andrew Slevison
GWS v Sydney Swans
Friday - 7:50pm AEST - ENGIE Stadium
Sydney have won the last five Battle of the Bridges and seven of the last eight. For whatever reason, they’ve got the wood over their little brother GWS.
Can the Giants flip the script here? They might need to if they want to hold onto their finals spot.
Conversely, Sydney simply must keep winning if their season is to stay alive. There’s a lot to play for here.
The last time the teams met was in Round 8 with the Swans running out 14-point winners. While the Giants won several key statistical categories, Sydney were brilliantly efficient particularly early as they bridged a lead they’d never give up.
Despite the recent head-to-head matchups, GWS are playing the better footy of both teams with five wins in a row against the Lions, Suns, Eagles, Cats and Bombers. A sneaky premiership push might be loading.
If Sydney are to win, it’ll be from a huge effort around the ball with the in-form Brodie Grundy feeding the likes of Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and Errol Gulden.
If the Giants can match them here, they should have too much firepower inside 50 and be too well structured down back to give up this all-important fixture.
Prediction: GWS by 16 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Gold Coast v Brisbane
Saturday - 1:20pm AEST - People First Stadium
Brisbane have bullied Gold Coast in Q-Clashes, winning 12 of their last 13 against their little brother.
But is this the time when the Suns finally turn things around? Just as it looked like they could be a different side after beating Collingwood in Round 18, things came crashing back to earth in Round 19 against Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval.
As for the Lions, they’ve won four in a row as their place looks very solid in the top half of the top eight. A minor premiership beckons should this form continue.
One reason behind Brisbane’s brilliant form is a very healthy list. Conversely, the Suns have lost a few key soldiers recently including Touk Miller and Daniel Rioli. Can they cover for these big outs?
Overall, this game means a lot more to the Suns given that they’re inside the eight currently by one win. Lose, and they will most likely fall out of the eight after the round is complete given ninth-placed Western Bulldogs have a stronger percentage.
Where this game will most likely be won in the midfield, and while that’s an area where the Suns are strong, without Touk Miller, it could be too big a task up against the likes of Lachie Neale, Will Ashcroft and Josh Dunkley.
They’ll definitely give the Lions a run for their money, particularly at home, but Brisbane is the pick until proven otherwise.
Prediction: Brisbane by 19 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Fremantle v West Coast
Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - Optus Stadium
Falling agonisingly short of the finals last season, the Fremantle Dockers are charging home in 2025.
After winning just four of their first nine games, the Dockers have hit a perfect purple patch, winning eight of their last nine to see Justin Longmuir’s men two games clear of the dreaded ninth spot.
Round 19’s brilliant come-from-behind one-point victory over league leaders Collingwood will leave Fremantle with an abundance of confidence, behind a career-high six goals from barometer Patrick Voss.
With just two games against top nine opposition remaining, the Dockers need to continue their top form to lock up a September spot.
As for West Coast, they've had a torrid time in 2025, winning just one of their 18 games and well on route to finishing rock bottom for the second time in three years.
After entering their round 19 clash as the favourites over fellow bottom dwellers Richmond, the Eagles fell as flat as ever, conceding eight third-term goals and losing by 49 points on home soil despite returning veterans in Liam Ryan and Tim Kelly.
Star midfielder Harley Reid played out one of his best games of the season, hitting a strong run of form as speculation of his future ramps up with the off-season approaching.
The 61st edition of the Western Derby may not be the heated contest this fixture has been in the past.
The Dockers enter with the recent upper hand, having won seven of the last eight derby matches with a margin of over 24 points in each of those seven wins.
For the Eagles, the season is all but over, and while there is no doubt that coach Andrew McQualter will look to fire his team up against the enemy, Fremantle simply have far too much to play for to consider any sort of upset.
Prediction: Fremantle by 41 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
North Melbourne v Geelong
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
North Melbourne may have slipped to 17th after last week’s loss to Sydney, but there are still promising signs in their rebuild.
Despite having only four wins this season, this is the most wins the Roos’ have had in a season since 2021 – it’s a small but meaningful step forward. North’s future is being shaped by young stars like Harry Sheezel and Colby McKercher, who both continue to improve each week. With a strong core of emerging talent, it feels like only a matter of time before North start climbing the ladder.
Conversely, The Cats have been one of the standout teams in 2025, currently sitting fourth on the ladder with everything still to play for. With just percentage separating fourth to seventh, every win matters in the run home. Geelong’s scoring power has been their major weapon all year, being the second highest scoring team in the league. That scoring power is led by the red-hot Jeremy Cameron, who’s 11 goals clear in the Coleman Medal race. With form, firepower, and finals experience, the Cats are genuine premiership contenders.
Geelong have made a habit of dismantling lower-ranked sides this season, with gigantic wins over Melbourne, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Essendon and Richmond by 39 points or more. Expect more of this against a young, rebuilding North Melbourne outfit still searching for consistency.
The Cats will smell blood and look to capitalise, with Chris Scott eyeing a handy percentage boost here. Unless North pull off something special, this one has all the makings of another big Geelong blowout.
Prediction: Geelong by 52 points.
Connor Scanlon
Adelaide v Port Adelaide
Saturday - 8:10pm AEST - Adelaide Oval
After embarrassing Gold Coast last week, the Crows have now stamped themselves as genuine premiership contenders.
Their only loss in the last eight games has been by a mere three points, showing they have the consistency and grit to make it all the way this season. The Crows boast the highest percentage in the league, thanks to the second-least points conceded and third-most points scored. History is on their side too, with the last eight premiers all finishing with a top-four percentage. Adelaide are peaking at the right time of season and are firmly in the flag race.
On the other hand, Port Adelaide’s season is unofficially over now, and while they can still mathematically make finals, it’s a near impossible task for Ken Hinkley’s men. After finishing second last year, Port’s 2025 campaign has been derailed by a horror run of injuries, making it tough to find any consistency. But there are still positives, with ruckman Jordon Sweet coming off a career-best performance, dominating both in the air and around the ground. While this year hasn’t gone to plan for the Power, they will be wanting to finish off the season strong for Ken Hinkley’s final season, and final Showdown.
The Showdown always delivers fireworks, and earlier this year it was Adelaide who edged out Port by just five points in a thriller. But the stakes have shifted since then.
While Port’s season is all but done, the Crows are pushing for a top-four finish, to get the sought after double chance in September. Expect an arm wrestle and fiery contest with plenty of physicality, but with so much on the line, Adelaide’s form and finals motivation should see them outlast their cross-town rivals once again this year.
Prediction: Adelaide by 26 points.
Connor Scanlon
Richmond v Collingwood
Sunday - 2:10pm AEST - MCG
Richmond has notched up back-to-back wins for the first time under Adem Yze.
Last Saturday night’s 49-point triumph over West Coast was the biggest win of Yze’s reign and first time the Tigers have scored over 100 with him in charge. First-year young guns Jonty Faull, Taj Hotton and Tom Sims showed a bit last week and that is all the Tigers fans will want to see against the Pies. They will lose excitement machine Seth Campbell to concussion for this however.
The Magpies are in a funk if you look at their recent win-loss column. Two defeats on the trot does not look great, but take into account they’ve lost by just six points to Gold Coast and one point to Fremantle. They really should have had that Dockers game shot to bits late, but uncharacteristically let Freo back in. Their form prior was exceptional and that’s what they’ll be channelling here. Beau McCreery’s hamstring strain is a shame but they should be able to cover his loss.
These two sides, while 16th and 1st on the ladder respectively, enter with very different and unexpected form lines. The Tigers have reeled off two wins on the trot, the Pies have lost two in a row for the first time in 2025. But you just get the feeling that McRae’s experienced Pies need this one a bit more than Yze’s young Tigers. Their spot on top of the ladder is at risk and they need to rediscover their mojo. This looks like a great chance to do so.
Prediction: Collingwood by 35 points.
Andrew Slevison
St Kilda v Melbourne
Sunday - 3:15pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
Since these two sides last met St Kilda hasn’t managed another win, albeit facing only top 10 sides. Meanwhile Melbourne has won just one game in the same period of time against the lowly North Melbourne.
Clearly both sides would be desperate for a win here as they try to salvage some optimism out of disappointing campaigns.
For Ross Lyon’s Saints, they would head into this clash fairly confident after a reasonable month of footy, despite the absence of a win. They should have beaten Sydney and pushed Collingwood, Fremantle and Hawthorn right to the death. You feel they need a win soon to validify the path they’re on and break the habit of six straight losses.
The Demons haven’t disgraced themselves either, though, and would anticipate a winnable game under the roof against a side they’ve had a good record against in recent times (4-1 in the last five games).
The loss of Steven May will allow Cooper Sharman and Mitch Owens a bit more breathing space with the additional absence of Jake Lever. The Saints, on the other hand, will field a relatively similar side than recent weeks.
This could be a sneaky good game to end the round even though they’ll be playing for pride alone. Saints to make it two wins in a row against Melbourne.
Prediction: St Kilda by 10 points.
Ethan Clark
