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Who will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Round 12
SEN • May 29th, 2025 12:38 pm
Round 12 action commences on Thursday night when Brisbane host an injury-riddled Essendon side at the Gabba.
It's the first game of the first real weekend of bye rounds, with four teams sitting out.
Friday sees Collingwood and Hawthorn meet in one of the games of the season, while Saturday has two intriguing games in Gold Coast v Fremantle and Sydney v Adelaide.
Sunday sees footy return to the red centre with Melbourne hosting St Kilda in Alice Springs.
The bye teams in Round 12 are: Carlton, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne and Western Bulldogs.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
Brisbane v Essendon
Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - Gabba
After a fortnight of stumbles (a draw with North Melbourne and a loss to Melbourne), the Lions reminded the competition why they are the kings of the jungle last weekend.
Chris Fagan’s reigning premiers cast Hawthorn aside to the tune of 33 points with co-captain Lachie Neale and fellow star midfielder Hugh McCluggage running riot. Throw in strong showings from Callum Ah Chee, Jack Payne and Noah Answerth, and there are form players in all areas of the ground. A five-day break is a slight issue heading into round 12, however.
Essendon eventually shook off Richmond in the Dreamtime clash last Friday night, gaining the upper hand to salute by 23 points. It was a welcome result after the heavy 91-point loss to the Bulldogs, with skipper Zach Merrett, Nic Martin (winning the Yiooken award), Sam Durham and debutant Angus Clarke (Rising Star nomination) all starring.
However, the Dons are in the middle of an epidemic of injuries to key position players after Zach Reid (hamstring), Kyle Langford (quad) and Ben McKay (foot) were all struck down.
The Dons are in a precarious personnel position ahead of this unenviable task. Brad Scott has blooded debutant Zak Johnson to play in an undersized and undermanned backline.
Even if the Dons were fully fit, this would present as a monumental task for a developing side. The Lions at the Gabba is one of the hardest trips in footy, and more so after they dropped a game at their fortress two weeks ago, denting their pride.
Brissie have won five of their last six over the Dons, including back-to-back Gabba triumphs.
At their best the Lions remain the team to beat and they should be banking these four points, particularly given the crowded Essendon medical room.
Prediction: Brisbane by 28 points.
Andrew Slevison
Collingwood v Hawthorn
Friday - 7:40pm AEST - MCG
Absolutely the game of the round. Two contenders. Prime time. Friday night. MCG. How good.
Collingwood enters as favourites having roared into top spot after going 9-2 across their first 11 games, and many of those matches have come against teams with real finals credentials.
As for the Hawks, the once-premiership favourites have fallen off the perch somewhat in recent weeks. While they’ve lost their last two to strong opposition in Gold Coast and Brisbane, they are still 7-4 and can quickly re-emerge as one of the best teams in it with a win here.
The Magpies’ strength is, without doubt, their defence which is league-best, while their spread up forward has given them a top-five offence. While the Magpies have stars across every line, it’s their system that’s impressed most in 2025 as the club continues to pick up wins despite missing key players at stages.
Hawthorn’s issues recently have come from the midfield with Will Day out injured. They’ve also given up four scores of 85 or more in their last seven games, the Magpies will hope to exploit this on Friday.
Even though the Hawks aren’t at their best, they’ll still enter this game with enough belief that they can knock off the flag favourites.
This game can be won by Collingwood with their team defence and getting on top in the middle. For the Hawks, they’ll hope their small forwards can get going as they did the last time these teams met in 2024 where they were victorious by 66 points.
The Hawks also have a brilliant recent record against the Magpies, winning 15 of the last 19 head-to-head matchups between the sides.
While this can go either way depending on who can implement the type of game they want to play, it’s just too hard to pick against the Magpies right now.
Prediction: Collingwood by 18 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Gold Coast v Fremantle
Saturday - 1:20pm AEST - People First Stadium
It’s been a busy week for Gold Coast in the media so a solid win will cap it off. The 8-2 record for the season thus far speaks for itself. Damien Hardwick has this talent-laden side humming like the footy world expects them to.
Leo Lombard (a Suns academy player) comes in for his debut off a 21-disposal game against Sandringham last week. Ironically, in last year's draft, Lombard was bid on by St Kilda...
From a Fremantle viewpoint, who knows which side we will see each week at the moment. Two convincing wins in a row against Port Adelaide and GWS read well, but performances like their 61-point loss to St Kilda two weeks before that would still linger on their mind.
Clearance and contested possessions have delivered the goods for the Dockers the last couple of weeks, and a firing Shai Bolton makes the forward line look much more dangerous. They have the capability here but will have to do it at a venue they haven’t played at since a 36-point loss at the hands of the Suns in May 2022.
This game feels as though it will live in the Suns’ half, whether that is Gold Coast attacking or Freo possessing defensively. The decisive aspect will be the Dockers’ ability to win clearance and lock it in their front half, rather than starting from their back half and getting stuck in a transition game set-up for turnovers.
Hardwick will have his boys fired up after the furore of the “Nepo Baby” saga, and I can’t see them losing their third of the year.
They have the cattle, they have the form, and they have the home ground. It seems a perfect recipe for a ninth win of the season.
Prediction: Gold Coast by 27 points.
Ethan Clark
GWS v Richmond
Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - ENGIE Stadium
There is renewed hope in the GWS camp on the back of a 28-point win over Carlton last weekend.
It was a tough five-week stretch there for Adam Kingsley and his men who had lost four matches but did manage to beat the Cats in Geelong.
They celebrated captain Toby Greene’s 250th game in style by downing the Blues and it has put a spring in their step ahead of what is seen on paper as a fairly straightforward home Richmond fixture.
The Tigers were competitive in the Dreamtime clash with Essendon before eventually falling by 23 points in a game that saw them field 14 players with less than 50 games of experience.
Adem Yze’s young Tigers are coming along nicely with the likes of Sam Banks, Kane McAuliffe, Tom Brown and Kaleb Smith all showing promising signs of late.
They were able to push the Bombers for much of the night, but this presents as a completely different challenge.
When the Giants are at their best they are a high quality team and you’d expect them to peel off another win here at home.
The Tigers have won two of the past three matchups between the two clubs so there is some hope, but the Giants have the advantage with form, talent, personnel and game style and should be saluting comfortably.
Prediction: Giants by 38 points.
Andrew Slevison
Sydney v Adelaide
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - SCG
Sydney’s season has been far from their Grand Final heights of 2024, winning just four of their first 11 games to sit in 13th place.
Off the back of a strong win over Carlton, anchored by Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner, the Swans were outclassed by Melbourne last weekend, falling by 53 points at the MCG. Sydney remains heavily undermanned, as stars Tom Papley and Errol Gulden stay on the sidelines, while returning captain Callum Mills and key forward Joel Amartey will miss Round 12 due to suspension.
Adelaide have taken a major step forward this season, residing in the top four after 11 games in 2025. Led by their key forward trio in Taylor Walker, Darcy Fogarty and Riley Thilthorpe, the Crows have been dynamic in attack, ranking second in the AFL for points scored this season. Captain Jordan Dawson leads the coaches votes after a perfect performance against the Eagles in Round 11, a clash that saw the Crows claim victory by 66 points at the Adelaide Oval.
While this contest might appear to be an easy pick, the Swans at the SCG aren’t to be ill-considered. Sydney have won their last two contests at home, knocking off both the Blues and the Giants in recent weeks. Sydney have also knocked off the Crows in every clash at the SCG since 2019, with the home side prevailing in every contest between the two in every game beyond.
Despite the ongoing streak, a healthy Crows side will simply contain too much star power. Expect the Swans to put up a strong fight, however Adelaide should walk away with an important four points.
Prediction: Adelaide by 23 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
Melbourne v St Kilda
Sunday - 3:20pm AEST - TIO Traeger Park
Both sides come into this clash with very different runs of form over the past six weeks.
Melbourne have stunningly won five of their past six, reigniting their season on the run, whilst the Saints have been spluttering with only the one win in that same timeframe.
The Demons have finally found their one-wood with their forward-half turnover game being a massive contributor to how they’ve been able to turn their season around.
In the past five weeks, the Dees have ranked second in time in forward half, fourth in turnovers created, second in scores from turnover and second in scores from their forward half.
These numbers have been incredibly contrasting to the way they began the 2025 season, as well as how the Saints have been operating in the past five games.
St Kilda have been ranked bottom five in both scores from turnover and scores from their forward half, as well as ranked mid-table for defending in both of these areas over the past five weeks.
So with the form line in those areas revealing as such, as well as the Saints having to travel to Alice Springs for the first time in forever, this game should be heading in the direction of another victory for the Demons who would also be looking to make it six wins in a row against the visiting side.
Prediction: Melbourne by 20 points.
Zac Sharpe
West Coast v Geelong
*Sunday - 7:20pm AEST - Optus Stadium *
Let’s be real, this one shouldn’t require too much thinking.
Geelong head into this Round 12 clash with serious momentum, fresh off a strong win over the red-hot Bulldogs and sitting at 7-4 for the season. Meanwhile, West Coast are back to familiar losing territory after a 66-point demolition at the hands of Adelaide, having managed just one win all season against St Kilda the week prior - it was actually their first in 281 days.
The recent history between these two teams is nothing short of brutal for the Eagles. In their last five meetings, Geelong has piled on a combined winning margin of 340 points at an average of 68.
And if you need a reminder of just how dangerous the Cats can be, the last time Jeremy Cameron faced the Eagles, he kicked nine. With the Coleman Medal leader hitting form again - 13 goals in two weeks - expect another nightmare matchup for West Coast’s defence.
The Cats have stood out this season for their manic pressure, leading the league for tackles, and this is the perfect opportunity for Geelong to expose West Coast’s sluggish ball movement. The Eagles average the least disposals of any team in the competition, and their lack of clean use will likely be punished all afternoon by a well-drilled Geelong outfit.
To make matters worse for West Coast, they’ll be missing a host of key players including Jake Waterman, who suffered a nasty shoulder injury, Jeremy McGovern, Matt Owies, Elliot Yeo, Dom Sheed and Jamie Cripps. Even with Patrick Dangerfield still sidelined for the Cats, Geelong have more than enough firepower and depth to dismantle the Eagles once again.
It’s hard to see this going any other way. The Cats are simply too clean, too experienced, and too strong for a rebuilding Eagles side still searching for consistency, fitness and form.
Prediction: Geelong by 54 points.
Connor Scanlon
