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Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for AFL Round 1, 2025
SEN • March 13th, 2025 1:56 pm
Round 1 is finally here with all 18 teams returning to play for the first time in 2025.
While four teams have already had an official hitout, 14 groups of supporters are yet to get a first glimpse at their clubs this campaign.
The round opens on Thursday with the Richmond v Carlton blockbuster. We also have a Grand Final rematch and several matchups between potential contenders on this weekend's slate.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
Richmond v Carlton
Thursday - 7:30pm AEDT – MCG
No Dustin Martin, no Dylan Grimes, no Liam Baker, no Shai Bolton, no Daniel Rioli, no Jack Graham, six premiership players out there, numerous key players including Noah Balta, Josh Gibcus, Dion Prestia and Josh Smillie unavailable … can this Richmond team compete? Let’s find out!
The Tigers enter a new era on Thursday night, as they blood No.1 draft pick Sam Lalor and fellow first-round picks Harry Armstrong and Luke Trainor, but on paper they seem a million miles away from the rest of the competition.
They come up against a Carlton team that looks like a total wildcard this year. Are they contenders? Have they missed their window? Regardless, it’s hard to imagine we will learn much on Thursday night.
Carlton simply has too much firepower for this Richmond side, boasting a full-strength midfield. It’s hard to imagine the young Tigers having the legs to go with their more seasoned opponents all game.
The Blues have rejigged their defence, with Jack Silvagni and Nick Haynes likely to provide a new edge while freeing up Mitch McGovern to intercept.
These Round 1 games tend to be weird and regardless of where these sides are on the ladder, the sheer energy in the stadium tends to keep these games competitive.
But even if this is close early, expect the Blues to push away from the Tigers and win comfortably.
Prediction: Carlton by 57 points.
Nic Negrepontis
Hawthorn v Essendon
Friday - 7:40pm AEDT – MCG
Hawthorn got off to a flyer to start the 2025 season with an Opening Round victory over last year’s Grand Finalists Sydney, and there’s no doubt they deserve to go in favourites here against Essendon.
While the Hawks entered 2025 with increased expectations and more of a target on their backs, they showed at the SCG that they’re ready to compete and beat the best this campaign, with Will Day the star of the show last week with three goals and 26 disposals.
There’s no doubt that the Dons would want to put a lot of work into the midfielder if they’re to cause an upset here. Letting him run free could cause disaster.
As for the Dons, they seem to have committed to a rebuild since another 11th-placed finish last year. As they didn’t bring in any experience over the off-season, the Bombers will be turning to youth this year and none are more exciting than first-round draftee Isaac Kako who makes his debut on Friday.
While the Bombers have easily accounted for the Hawks in their last four matchups, Hawthorn have taken some huge steps in the last 12 months and they should have a little too much depth in all thirds of the ground for this Dons side.
A 2-0 start to the season looks likely.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 29 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Geelong v Fremantle
Saturday - 1:20pm AEDT – GMHBA Stadium
Geelong have had all summer to think about last year’s Preliminary Final loss to the Brisbane Lions.
Chris Scott’s side led by 19 points at half-time of that game before going under by less than two goals. No doubt a defeat in such a decisive game would sting, and the playing group will enter the season with redemption in mind.
Geelong will unveil prized recruit Bailey Smith for his debut in the blue and white hoops, kicking off yet another season full of expectation for the ever-contending club.
Fremantle has been one of the most hyped sides of the off-season.
Justin Longmuir’s Dockers were in great nick to play finals last year before capitulating with four straight defeats.
With that lesson in the bank and the trade period addition of Shai Bolton, many pundits are forecasting that the ‘purple haze’ to again float over the competition. They do, however, have a few injury worries in the form of Bolton (leg), Josh Draper (hamstring), Nat Fyfe (knee), captain Alex Pearce (ankle) and Michael Walters (knee) who are all listed as tests (as of Thursday morning).
Early-season tipping can make or break you but we’re here to give an opinion.
The Cats lost to Essendon in the AAMI Community Series while the Dockers beat Melbourne. On that limited exposed 2025 form – and the fact Freo has won their last two at GMHBA Stadium – they must be considered a serious chance.
But the percentage play is tipping the Cats at home, especially seeing as they’ve won their last nine opening games at the venue.
Prediction: Geelong by 7 points.
Andrew Slevison
Sydney v Brisbane
Saturday - 4:15pm AEDT – SCG
Sydney are coming off a 20-point loss to Hawthorn last week but were by no means disgraced. Dean Cox would be desperate to get his first win on the board for 2025 but will have to do it without Taylor Adams (hamstring).
The absence of Adams, Errol Gulden and Callum Mills may leave them a bit thin in the midfield against the number one contested possession side of 2024. All main injuries to the side are still unavailable this week so Cox will have to look elsewhere if he intends on bringing in some new spark.
Brisbane would have liked to unveil their flag in their first outing this season, but the next best thing is asserting their Grand Final thumping over Sydney with a win at their home deck.
The Lions have won their last four games against the Swans dating back to Round 1, 2021. Lincoln McCarthy re-tearing his ACL is an emotional one, but Chris Fagan’s men have replacements in line; while Joe Daniher’s replacement is a question yet to be answered with Sam Day, Ty Gallop and even Darcy Fort possible solutions.
Whatever the make-up they go with, the Lions remain a formidable opposition in 2025.
The preparation has been jolted for the Lions, while the Swans have had a practice run against a slick Hawks. A Grand Final rematch will be excellent motivational fodder for Dean Cox’s side in his second match-day as coach, as well as the threat of a 0-2 start to the season.
Joe Daniher’s absence is the unanswered question for Brisbane while the Swans work on a midfield without Errol Gulden. Revenge will be much-needed for the red and the white against a side they’ve lost their last four to.
Prediction: Sydney by 4 points.
Ethan Clark
Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne
Saturday - 7:35pm AEDT – Marvel Stadium
It has been an unenviable off-season for the Bulldogs who have dealt with the off-field issues of Jamarra Ugle-Hagan as well as a number of injuries.
Captain Marcus Bontempelli is sidelined with a “complex” calf injury, while Adam Treloar, Liam Jones, Jason Johannisen and Cody Weightman are all out of action. Plenty has gone wrong, but there is also a lot to be excited about through the off-season form of top draft picks Sam Darcy and Ryley Sanders, trade period acquisition Matt Kennedy and mature-age recruit Sam Davidson.
It’s been somewhat of a quieter pre-season for the Kangaroos who have been busy with their heads down preparing for 2025. They added some much-needed experience via the trade period in Luke Parker, Jack Darling and Caleb Daniel, while adding No.2 draft pick Finn O’Sullivan to their bevy of talented youngsters. The general vibe is that the Roos will bounce in Alastair Clarkson’s third season in charge, but there do remain some doubters given their struggles in recent years.
Due to the personnel issues at the Dogs, there is an element of doubt entering their opening game of 2025. The Roos have been bubbling away over summer and look primed to start the season well with a blend of youthful exuberance and their added experience.
But you just can’t overlook the fact that the Doggies have won their last seven over North and by an average margin of 58.2 points, including a 96-point trouncing in Round 23 last season.
Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 24 points.
Andrew Slevison
Collingwood v Port Adelaide
Saturday - 7:35pm AEDT – MCG
Last week’s Opening Round performance wouldn’t have given Collingwood fans much hope, but they still enter this clash against Port Adelaide as favourites.
On paper, it’s pretty easy to see why. The Magpies seemingly improved over the off-season while the Power seemed to have lost a bit of talent. The Power also have some significant outs including Zak Butters … oh, and Dan Houston now plays for the opposition.
Footy isn’t played on paper though, and Port Adelaide would have been buoyed by what GWS were able to do to the Magpies last week in Western Sydney.
In that game, the Giants ran the Magpies off their legs and didn’t let allow them any space whenever they launched the ball inside 50. If they can bring a similar level of pressure to GWS, then they’re right in this one.
On the other side, Collingwood will be desperate to bounce back … and playing against a Port Adelaide defence without some of their key pillars, they’ll feel better going forward than they did last week against Sam Taylor.
The key to this one, as it is in many Pies games, could be the influence of Nick Daicos. If Willem Drew can stop the superstar much like Toby Bedford did last Sunday, it’s game on.
But if he gets off the chain and finds his best footy, the Magpies will win many more games at the MCG than they will lose.
The Power are in this, but too much has to go right for them for us to not side with Collingwood.
Prediction: Collingwood by 21 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Adelaide v St Kilda
Sunday - 12:35pm AEDT – Adelaide Oval
Expectations are high for Adelaide in 2025, despite their bottom four finish last year and they feel clear favourites to take down St Kilda in Round 1.
The Crows have had the dream off-season as they enter the season with essentially their full list to pick from. St Kilda meanwhile will be without Max King, Mattaes Phillipou, Mitch Owens, Dougal Howard, Liam Henry and Dan Butler, while Rowan Marshall and Jack Sinclair will play off interrupted pre-seasons.
Adelaide feels primed, having beaten Brisbane in the AAMI Community Series, while St Kilda was thumped by the Power.
The Crows will have a new-look midfield, with James Peatling, Sid Draper and Isaac Cumming set to add a new element, while 2025 looms as the year Izak Rankine announces himself on-ball.
St Kilda will hope their speed off half back will prove to be a key factor, particular with question marks on the defensive pressure a tall Adelaide forward line can put on.
If the Saints can hold up defensively, as Ross Lyon teams tend to do, they may be able to hurt the Crows on turnover.
However, if Adelaide dominates in the midfield and controls territory, it will be difficult for the Saints to keep up.
Expect the Crows to start the season strong as they look to prove they deserve to be in top eight calculations in 2025.
Prediction: Adelaide by 29 points.
Nic Negrepontis
Melbourne v GWS
Sunday - 3:20pm AEDT – MCG
Off the back of their thumping 52-point win over Collingwood in Opening Round, the Giants have been considered by most as one of the premiership favourites.
Coming up against a team that has gone through hell over the last year, GWS should have the speed, fitness and skill to handle a Melbourne side that is desperate to contend again.
The absence of Jesse Hogan, Jake Stringer and Tom Green proved to be no issue for them in Opening Round, but will it have an impact when they have to play away from home for the first time this year?
There's no side more keen to get the season under way then Melbourne this year, as they'd be itching to get back out on the MCG to prove a lot of doubters wrong.
The Dees enter the 2025 season with a refreshed playing group compared to last year, adding eight new players to a list laden with premiership players.
Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver will be closely watched by many, as both players were linked with shock Demons departures last year in what was a real low point for the club.
Can the Demons begin their resurgence with a win in Round 1? It will be tough and while they will likely put up a good fight, it's hard not to be taken by what the Giants did last week.
Prediction: GWS by 18 points.
Zac Sharpe
West Coast v Gold Coast
Sunday - 6:10pm AEDT – Optus Stadium
2025 is poised to be the biggest year yet for Gold Coast, with expectations being set for the Suns to make their first finals appearance in club history, yet to do so they’ll need to snap the away game hoodoo that plagued them through 2024.
Damien Hardwick’s men will get a golden opportunity to do just that on Sunday, heading over to Optus Stadium to face a West Coast side that hasn’t troubled them recently, with the Suns winning four of the last five between the two sides.
On the other hand, it’s the start of a new era for the Eagles as Andrew McQualter takes the reins, being tasked with spearheading West Coast’s return to competitive football.
With a fresh game style and several recruits donning the royal blue and yellow, we’re not quite sure what to make of the new-look Eagles in their fledgling state, however, all eyes will undoubtedly be on Harley Reid, with expectations sky-high for the young phenom in his second season.
West Coast will undoubtedly be going through plenty of growing pains through the early stages of the season, which makes them a perfect target for a Suns squad desperate to assert themselves as a bona fide finals fancy.
Prediction: Gold Coast by 19 points.
Jack Makeham
