"Genuine chance": The horse who could beat Observer in the Derby

Connor Scanlon • October 29th, 2025 2:19 pm

Autumn Mystery is in the market for the three-year-old Victoria Derby (2500m) at Flemington on Saturday.

The son of The Autumn Sun has had a fantastic preparation so far including two wins and two second place finishes from four starts.

The Rory Hunter-trained gelding is most recently coming off a 2000m Group 3 victory in the Norman Robinson Stakes and looks primed to make the step up to 2500m for Flemington’s feature Group 1 this weekend.

Hunter has labelled his horse a “genuine chance” to take out the famous race on the first day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival.

“He’s a real genuine chance,” Hunter told SENTrack & RSN’s Giddy Up.

“The way he was stronger in the line (in the Norman Robinson), I think he was taking ground off them at the end of the race.

“I definitely feel like he is going to run a strong 2500m.

“Obviously, Ciaron Maher’s horse (Observer) is going to be very hard to beat, but I’m confident we can be there at the finish with him.”

Breaking down why Autumn Mystery can win, the Mornington trainer explained that the main reason is because his bay just keeps getting better as the distance lengthens, unlike some other horses in the race.

“The way he is just able to switch off and relax, and then really start to work into the race at the 500m mark, and be as strong as anything else in the finish – I think that’s the key attribute for him, especially in these long-distance races for three-year-olds,” Hunter said.

“A lot of horses are going to be coming to the end of their campaigns, and a lot are going to come off the bit around the corner – that’s the strongest part of his race usually.

“He’s shown good adaptability in his races, being able to accelerate off a slow speed or fast speed.

“Whatever he does on Saturday we’ll be really proud of the horse and we know we’ll have a better horse in six months time.

“That’s the most exciting part about it.”

Autumn Mystery drew barrier 17 for the Derby.