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Sport Nation
The ‘swing seat’ matches that could decide Essendon’s season
Nicholas Quinlan • May 24th, 2025 3:56 pm
SEN’s Gerard Whateley believes that Essendon’s fate for their season will be decided by their matches against Carlton.
Essendon now sit 6-4 on the AFL ladder after their 23-point victory against Richmond as part of their annual Dreamtime at the ‘G clash.
While their win-loss record would indicate that the Bombers are a finals-contending team, the teams they have beaten makes Whateley believe that Essendon are not ready for finals.
This would be further shown by the fact that Essendon are 0-4 against top-eight sides this season.
“So, they are 6-4. If they just hold to where they are, they will beat St Kilda when they play later on (in Round 23) to complete the set of 18th, 17th, 16th, 15th, 14th, 13th and 12th,” Whateley concluded on SEN’s Crunch Time.
“And their swing seat is Carlton, who they play twice and whether they are better or worse than Carlton.
“If they are better than Carlton, they’ll win 11 games which is what they have done for the last two years.
“And if they are worse than Carlton, they’ll end up with nine.
“Now they will be a swing game either way, but they are completely declared.
“While I acknowledge there are some in the Essendon community who either refuse to see it...but you can’t be in any doubt about where they are and what they are trying to do.
“They have this plan for 2027, which relies on them getting the next two drafts right to complement where they are.
“They are exactly as they appear to be.”
Adam Simpson pondered whether the Bombers would have the picks to be able to draft these high-quality players to become a true finals contender.
“Well, what’s their draft position, Tom?” Simpson asked.
“Finishing 9th three years in a row is not… as much as you go, it’s better than 8th (in terms of draft position), is it?”
Tom Morris provided that update noting that they did have multiple first and second-rounders which gives them every chance to do so.
“They’ve finished 11th the last two years but it’s the same middle range of the table,” Morris said.
‘But they have Melbourne’s first round pick (currently Pick No. 5), they’ve got their own first round pick (currently Pick No. 11) and they’ve got St Kilda’s second round pick and their own second round pick.
“So that’s four selections in the first two rounds and then if they lose Sam Draper, they’ll get another one there as well as a compensation pick.
“So, they’ve got draft capital to use, they just need to nail it.”
The Bombers will look to make a statement win next week as they head to Brisbane for their Thursday night clash against the Lions.
If they can win that, it would be their first win against a top-eight side this season.
