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The certainties for every remaining Round 1 game
SEN • March 14th, 2025 6:51 pm
Back for another week, the SEN.com.au team gives you an insight into how every game will play out across the weekend.
Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.
But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.
Here is what we consider certainties for the eight remaining games in Round 1 across Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Hawthorn v Essendon
Watson to kick at least a goal
While Hawthorn’s season started brilliantly last week, Nick Watson wasn’t a big factor in their win.
The small forward was kept to just four touches by Sydney’s Sam Wicks, and he’ll be desperate to hit the scoreboard for the first time in 2025.
In fact, last week was the first time he’s ever gone completely scoreless without a goal or behind in his short career so far. That won’t happen again this time around.
The Hawks should give their forwards plenty of opportunities on Friday night, and you can expect ‘The Wizard’ to be on the end of at least one of them.
Lachlan Geleit
Geelong v Fremantle
Holmes and Serong to combine for 45+ disposals
We’re expecting Geelong and Fremantle’s prime movers Max Holmes and Caleb Serong to both have an impact at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday.
Holmes doesn’t have the most flash record against the Dockers, averaging just 10.2 touches across 10 games. But he did pick up 20 last time out against them in Round 23 last year.
Serong is as dependable as it comes when you’re talking disposal winners.
He has averaged 24.3 against the Cats across six matches, picking up 20 or more in each of those games.
We believe that Holmes and Serong will combine for at least 45 disposals on what promises to be a very warm Saturday down at the Cattery
Andrew Slevison
Sydney v Brisbane
Warner to have 20+ disposals and kick 1+ goals
It was in a Round 1 fixture back in 2021 when Sydney’s young brigade featuring Chad Warner would announce themselves after defeating Brisbane in an upset win.
Now, four years later in another Round 1 fixture against Brisbane, Warner will be looking to help his team pull off an equally important win for the Swans to seek revenge after last year’s Grand Final loss.
Warner managed 21 disposals and 2 goals against the Hawks in Opening Round and should continue his good form from last week with 20+ disposals and a goal against the Lions.
Nicholas Quinlan
Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne
Darcy to kick 2+ goals
Western Bulldogs young gun Sam Darcy is rising fast.
He booted 38 goals in 21 games in 2024, and is primed to improve on that in 2025.
His best AFL game to date came against the Roos in Round 24 last season when he finished with seven goals from 20 touches and nine marks.
Darcy tuned up nicely for the season proper with 3.2 against Hawthorn in the pre-season and we reckon he’ll follow that up against North on Saturday night.
At least two goals is in the offing for the talented 21-year-old.
Andrew Slevison
Collingwood v Port Adelaide
Nick Daicos to have 25+ disposals
He had a quiet week last week, but Nick Daicos still found 21 disposals while getting tagged by Toby Bedford.
Given that Daicos also battled with cramp and spent a significant period on the bench, you’d imagine that he would have cruised past 25 if he was fully healthy.
Pending his body standing up on Saturday, Daicos should have absolutely no issues in passing the 25-touch marker, even if he has Willem Drew to deal with.
He had 30 touches and eight clearances against Drew last year. He’d hope to have a similar impact in this one.
Lachlan Geleit
Adelaide v St Kilda
Fogarty to kick at least one goal
After scoring the most total points in 2023 and then slipping away to 12th in 2024, there are questions marks whether they can return to that form.
If Adelaide are to get back the ladder (and they should) Darcy Fogarty will play a large part in this.
After a shaky start in 2024, Fogarty kicked a goal in every game bar two after Round 6 becoming the leading goal scorer for the Crows.
And after a decent 3 goal game against Brisbane in the pre-season, he should boot at the very least one goal against St Kilda.
Nicholas Quinlan
Melbourne v GWS
Gawn to have 20+ disposals, 35+ hitouts
With Kieren Briggs sidelined, Max Gawn enters Sunday’s game against GWS with a favourable matchup in Lachie Keeffe.
Playing primarily on Keeffe last week, Collingwood’s Darcy Cameron had 22 disposals, seven marks and 37 hitouts.
You’d expect Gawn to just about match those statistics, especially given that he averaged 19 touches and 34 hitouts a game in 2024.
This could be a real fill-up for the Melbourne skipper.
Lachlan Geleit
West Coast v Gold Coast
Anderson to have 25+ disposals
In the battle of the two 'coast' named teams, the Suns will be looking to start the season strongly with an away win which dogged them for the majority of 2024.
And for them to win against West Coast, they’ll need a good performance from Noah Anderson to get them there
This game will be Anderson’s first as captain for Gold Coast and he’ll be looking to lead from the front with his game.
In his last four matches against West Coast, Anderson averages 29.75 disposals, so he should achieve 25-plus once more.
Nicholas Quinlan
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