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Stuart Barnes: England's recipe for success against the All Blacks at Twickenham
Stephen Foote • November 11th, 2025 10:54 am
England | Photo: Photosport
England head into Sunday's (NZ time) showdown with the All Blacks at Twickenham with an opportunity to snap a six-year drought against the men in black, and given recent results, the hosts and their fanbase will be feeling buoyant about their chances.
The English haven't beaten the All Blacks since their semi-final victory at the World Cup in Japan back in 2019, a stretch of four matches which includes a draw.
England were dominant in their 25-7 over the Wallabies a fortnight ago, which they backed up with a robust 38-18 win against Fiji, while the All Blacks battled past a 14-man Ireland and held on to prevent falling on the wrong side of history against the Scots.
Based on that recent form, UK bookies - at odds with their NZ counterparts - have reflected that local air of confidence by installing England as betting favourites.
But according to famous British rugby scribe Stuart Barnes, his countrymen need to temper their expectations.
While he admits Scott Robertson's All Blacks have their issues, he believes England have shown plenty of chinks in their own armour, making for what he believes will be a highly competitive clash in London.
"A lot of my colleagues are saying England should be beating New Zealand this weekend. I don't understand that," Barnes told Sport Nation Mornings.
"They might but they haven't played with the pyrotechnics that makes you think they're going to blow away a flawed-looking All Blacks team who have a few weaknesses. England too have a couple of weaknesses in their team.
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"They are winning, and I think in England we're getting very excited by the fact that they've won their last nine games after a pretty bad losing run. But in those nine games, they haven't beaten New Zealand and they haven't beaten South Africa.
"Winning is important but the quality of performance has to be good as well and there are just some question marks about England at the moment. I like a lot about what they're doing, I think it's the most positive I've been about England for a couple of years.
"But I think going into this game, I think England might win, I don't think they should win. I think it's very close."
New Zealand's fallibility under the high ball - albeit improved - was again on display against the Scots at Murrayfield, and another aerial bombardment will take nobody unawares this weekend.
In first-five George Ford and halves partner Alex Mitchell, Barnes says England have the ideal foils to continue that pressure in what will be an area that may well define the contest.
Barnes - who earned 10 Test caps himself for England between 1984 and 1993 - says both forward packs as relatively evenly matched, meaning England should have a readymade platform to launch those aerial attacks throughout.
"It would be mad, if you want to beat New Zealand, not to kick a lot of ball," he notes.
"You have a strong set piece that gives you parity at least and then you put them under pressure and then, you hope when it breaks up, we'll see that improvement in an English game that hasn't been there for two years.
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"That will be the foundations of their game, if their pack give them the platform."
Another area where the All Blacks aren't as strong - another long-held point of contention amongst their fans - is in the midfield, where the absence of Jordie Barrett removes not just a sturdy attacking weapon, but another reliable kicking option.
Meanwhile in the halves, there's an over-reliance on Cam Roigard - who played 157 of the combined 160 minutes against both Ireland and Scotland - which may come back to haunt the All Blacks.
"Just like driving power, I think without Jordie Barrett there, I think the midfield isn't what I expect of New Zealand midfields. There will be kicking and I think when both Barretts are in tandem, it gives them an extra kicking option. I think there's a slight weakness there.
"I don't think it's Will Jordan's greatest aspect, nor Caleb Clarke. Leroy is fairly new. So I think England will target the back three. I think England can pinpoint defensive deficiencies with their kicking game and target New Zealand on the wide flanks and I think they're strong there.
"I just wonder whether New Zealand at half-back have the depth for 80 minutes. I think Cam Roigard looks a little bit too important. I think he's a really good player. I'm very impressed with him, but I just think if he suffers in any way, there's a deficiency in the team - quite a big gap.
In summary, Barnes boils England's chances of success down to one very simple - at least, on paper, formula.
"I'd say they must hold the parity at setpiece. They must kick well. They must win the breakdown.
"If they do that, I would then say not that England might win, I would say England should win."
Listen to the full interview:
All Blacks vs England - betcha odds:
All Blacks - $1.67, England - $2.15
