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Important SN update for SouthlandSENTrack: Andrew O’Toole’s Saturday best bets at Darwin (05/07)
Andrew O’Toole • July 5th, 2025 12:30 pm
After a month-long build-up, the 2025 Great Northern Cup Carnival finally kicks off today with the $75,000 DCOH Darwin Guineas for the 3yos over 1600m. A near-capacity field has been assembled for the first leg of the $50,000 DCOH Darwin Double, which is awarded to the horse that can win the Guineas and the Derby in the same year, and there appears to be a number of chances, but I fancy Alice Springs visitor The Men Went Home to take away the Guineas first prize on Day 1 of the eight-day extravaganza of racing.
Trained by Kerry Petrick and to be ridden by veteran horseman Paul Denton, The Men Went Home obviously relishes the 1600m of the Guineas trip, having won the Alice equivalent in March at his first start in the NT. He was very strong that day and came clear to win by a length and a-quarter from Grinzinger Lass in the style of a horse with a real future at the distance and further.
Following his Guineas win in the Alice, he had his colours lowered a fortnight later by Vanguard Legend in the 3&4YO 1600m sub-feature, seemingly having every chance before being beaten a length and a-half. He was then given a break with the Darwin Carnival on his radar, and resumed with an excellent second to Bruno Bruno in the lead-up 1300m here a fortnight ago.
He raced wide on that occasion after jumping from the outside barrier but one, but still finished off well to be beaten less than a length. He was above himself in condition that day and will no doubt have derived plenty of improvement from the first-up assignment. He has drawn the ace this time and Denton should be able to secure a beautiful run behind the speed, reserving energy for the final strength-sapping 200m. But the son of O’Lonhro showed with his AS Guineas victory that he has no problem with the trip, and the way he races the 2050m of the Derby on 19 July would appear to be well within his range.
Hardest for The Men Went Home to beat looks likely to be Vanguard Legend and Bruno Bruno, the horses that he split last time they met a fortnight ago. Vanguard Legend, trained by Chloe Baxter and to again to ridden by Gold Coast-based former Darwin apprentice Jade Hampson, has won three of his last five starts, and he came from a long way back to finish an eye-catching third on 21 June. He is a previous winner at the trip (and he ran good time when scoring over the distance in AS on 5 April) and promises to be right there in the finish. The only negative to his chances is the outside barrier of 11, which probably means he will need to go back at the start, which is his normal pattern anyway, and hopefully secure some cover before unleashing his finishing effort.
Bruno Bruno has only been beaten once in four Top End starts, and that defeat came two starts back when he finished a three-quarter-length second to Vanguard Legend over 1200m. He had to work hard that day after having plenty of pressure applied during the event, and Vanguard Legend had the sit behind the speed and was able to run him down late. He bounced back to win the lead-up 1300m here a fortnight ago with a game performance, and there is no doubting his stomach for the fight. The only question mark may be his ability to handle a hard 1600m, but he is such a genuine customer that he has to be included in calculations.
Vieri, while still a maiden from seven starts, also appeals as a leading hope, with three seconds and three thirds to his credit. The son of Russian Revolution, trained by Chris Nash, has chased home Li’l Brazen, Tugela Falls and Fly since coming to Darwin, and then last time, a fortnight ago, took on older horses over the Guineas trip and tried hard in finishing second to Faberge Tzar, beaten just under two lengths. He has drawn ideally in barrier three and Sonja Logan, last year’s Guineas winner who has been aboard in all four starts to date in the Top End, retains the mount. One of his co-owners is DCOH principal Shane Dignan, so the stars could well align for the strongly-built gelding.
The Gary Clarke runners can never be discounted in the Guineas, and he is represented by Bollon and Fly in today’s renewal. Bollon has yet to win in the Top End but he has gone some decent races, but also hasn’t helped himself by missing the jump badly on a couple of occasions. He is owned by Victorian trainer Peter Moody and will have the services of Jarrod Todd, Darwin’s leading rider who will be chasing his second Guineas win, having been aboard Autocratic in his 2020 victory (over 1300m due to Covid). Fly broke his maiden with a tough performance two starts back, and then chased home Bruno Bruno, The Men Went Home and Vanguard Legend after working hard in the run here on 21 June. He has been placed over 1400m and further, and is another in the mix.
Snore Room, fifth in the same race, newcomer Dream Baby and Rampazetto are others that could run a bold race without surprising. It certainly shapes as an intriguing contest and with the Ladbrokes NT Derby set down for two weeks later, the first leg of the DCOH Darwin Double will be keenly contested with the $50,000 bonus potentially up for grabs.
The weather in the Top End this week has again been typical dry season conditions, with nice fine days and cooler mornings. The official forecast for today reads: Partly cloudy. Light winds. The temperature is forecast to reach 29 degrees during the day, and 19 overnight, while there is just a 5% chance of any rainfall.
The first race on the nine-race card gets underway at 12.22pm (NT time), which is 12.52pm on the eastern seaboard, while the last is timed to go at 5.07pm (NT time), or 5.37pm in New South Wales and Victoria.
BEST BETS
R1 # 5 STORMFRONTFinished off strongly at his first Top End start when a half-length second to Galaxy General over 1300m on 21 June. Gave every indications that the step-up to 1600m would be very much to his liking, and from the inside gate in this small field, he should get all favours in the run. Jade Hampson retains the ride for Peter Robl, and the 4yo grey looks very hard to beat in the opener.
R5 # 4 LUCKY FORTUNAWas a star turn at this Carnival last year, with three wins culminating in the Rosebowl on Ladies’ Day. Had a preparatory run here a month ago and should be ready to show her best in this fillies and mares 1200m, a lead-up to the Rosebowl. Jarrod Todd has the mount for the Lehmanns and the 5yo daughter of Smart Missile, from a nice gate, should get every chance to resume winning ways.
R9 # 7 THE MEN WENT HOMEThe AS Guineas winner at his first start in the NT, and has since finished second twice, once in the Red Centre behind Vanguard Legend, and then a fortnight ago here behind Bruno Bruno. Raced wide throughout from barrier 10 on that occasion but still hit the line strongly to be beaten less than a length over 1300m. This trip is far more suitable and from the inside draw, Paul Denton, who has won this race on three previous occasions, should be able to secure an economical run in transit. Will take plenty of beating.
SELECTIONS
FANNIE BAY RACECOURSE (DARWIN) – GOODRACE 1 – 5, 1, 2, 4RACE 2 – 3, 4, 2, 8RACE 3 – 1, 3, 6, 2RACE 4 – 5, 2, 6, 3RACE 5 – 4, 2, 3, 5RACE 6 – 2, 1, 5, 6RACE 7 – 2, 4, 9, 12RACE 8 – 1, 6, 3, 2RACE 9 – 7, 8, 2, 9
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