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Live sport on SN this weekendMedic vs Rodriguez: UFC Belgrade bets and analysis (02/08)
Connor Scanlon •  August 1st, 2026 12:43 pm
The UFC takes place in Belgrade this weekend and is being headlined by Serbian welterweight contender Uros Medic versus veteran Daniel Rodriguez.
The main card consists of five fights and will kick off at 3:45am AEST on Sunday morning.
See the full analysis of the UFC Belgrade main card below:
Uros Medic vs. Daniel Rodriguez (Main event)
Odds:Uros Medic - $1.24Daniel Rodriguez - $4.10
Analysis:This shapes as arguable the most violent fight on the card.
Daniel Rodriguez is a pressure-heavy boxer with serious knockout power who throws in high volume and becomes especially dangerous once he senses his opponent is hurt. His takedown defence is solid, but his aggressive style leaves openings and he can fade after the opening round.
Uros Medic is an explosive Muay Thai striker with speed, power and excellent range management. All seven of his UFC wins have come by knockout, highlighting his finishing ability. He is the more technical and diverse striker in this bout, mixing punches and kicks effectively, but concerns remain over his chin durability if Rodriguez lands clean.
With both fighters constantly hunting finishes and five rounds available to work with, a knockout feels almost guaranteed. Medic appears to have the cleaner skill set and speed advantage, but the Serbian’s questionable chin means Rodriguez's power makes him a live underdog throughout the contest.
Prediction:Uros Medic to win by KO/TKO
OR
Daniel Rodriguez to win by KO/TKO - Value
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Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling (Co-main)
Odds:Jan Blachowicz - $3.70Navajo Stirling - $1.28
Analysis:Navajo Stirling enters as an undefeated prospect with a dynamic kickboxing game built around excellent distance management, varied attacks and high-level technical striking. He is dangerous to all targets of the body, remains composed when opponents are hurt, and has shown the ability to mix in clinch and wrestling work when required.
Jan Blachowicz remains an elite veteran striker who prefers to hold the centre of the Octagon, working behind his jab and calf kicks. He accumulates damage rather, and is happy with winning on points, rather than forcing the finish. His experience advantage is significant, but he may struggle to match Stirling's speed, volume and variety.
The likely outcome is a largely stand-up battle, with Blachowicz attempting to dictate range through holding the centre of the Octagon while Stirling works from the outside with a wider striking arsenal. If activity and output become the deciding factors, Stirling appears to hold the edge.
Prediction:Navajo Stirling to win by Points
Aleksander Rakic vs. Marcin Tybura
Odds:Aleksander Rakic - $1.27Marcin Tybura - $3.78
Analysis:Aleksandar Rakic makes his heavyweight debut here and it is a fight which should suit him.
Despite being on a four-fight losing streak, the quality of his opponents can’t be understated – they were some of the very best contenders out of the entire division.
Rakic is a well-rounded kickboxer, combining fast and accurate striking with effective movement and occasional grappling, while Marcin Tybura is a durable veteran who possesses power and finds his best success when pressing forward aggressively.
However, Tybura’s more stationary footwork leaves him vulnerable to quicker opponents, and he can be taken down.
The key advantages appear to favour Rakic. He should be the faster athlete, own the footwork advantage and have more weapons at range. If he adjusts well to heavyweight, his movement and striking accuracy could create problems for Tybura over an extended fight.
Prediction:Aleksander Rakic to win
Dusko Todorovic vs. Robert Valentin
Odds:Dusko Todorovic - $2.39Robert Valentin - $1.58
Analysis:
Dusko Todorovic is primarily a grappler whose best work comes through takedowns, cage control and positional dominance. On the feet, he tends to be slower, lacks major power and can be vulnerable against quicker strikers. His effectiveness also declines as fights progress.
Robert Valentin appears to have a clear advantage in the striking department. The Muay Thai specialist is faster, more powerful and offers damaging calf kicks alongside a varied offensive arsenal. While his grappling defence is not perfect and he can be controlled on the ground at times, he has shown enough scrambling ability to avoid being completely overwhelmed.
Unless Todorovic can consistently impose his wrestling and top control, Valentin's superior speed and striking should allow him to dictate the fight.
Prediction:Robert Valentin to win
Follow Connor Scanlon HERE on Instagram for daily UFC news and updates!
Vlasto Cepo vs. Gilbert Urbina
Odds:Vlasto Cepo - $1.26Gilbert Urbina - $3.90
Analysis:Vlasto Cepo makes his UFC debut bringing an aggressive, all-action style. Each of his 14 victories have come in the opening round, bar one fight.
Cepo’s approach is simple: move forward, throw heavy punches and search for an early knockout. The downside is that his defence can be questionable, he is vulnerable to takedowns and his cardio remains a question mark if the fight extends.
Gilbert Urbina is the more measured fighter in this matchup. He prefers to work behind calculated striking combinations, manage distance and maintain a controlled pace. He also owns a grappling path to victory through takedowns and cage control, which could be particularly effective against Cepo's style.
The fight may come down to whether Urbina commits to wrestling. If he chooses a disciplined grappling-heavy strategy and survives the early danger, his winning chances improve significantly. However, if he engages in a prolonged striking battle during the opening round, he could find himself caught by Cepo's power.
Prediction:Vlasto Cepo to win by KO/TKO in Round 1
OR
Gilbert Urbina inside the distance
$100 Staking Plan
$50 PROP @ $5.80 (returns $290)Daniel Rodriguez to win by KO/TKO
$50 MULTI @ $2.76 (returns $138)Robert Valentin to winAleksandar Rakic to winNavajo Stirling to win
Scanlon's Special
The Scanlon's Special this week will cover the entire main card @ $5.67!
Leg 1 - Vlasto Cepo vs Gilbert Urbina not to go the distanceLeg 2 - Robert Valentin to winLeg 3 - Aleksandar Rakic to win by KO/TKO or PointsLeg 4 - Navajo Stirling by PointsLeg 5 - Uros Medic vs Daniel Rodriguez to end by KO/TKO
Follow Connor Scanlon HERE on Instagram for daily UFC news and updates!
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