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Live sport on SN this weekendAnkalaev vs Guskov: UFC Abu Dhabi bets and analysis (26/07)
Connor Scanlon •  July 25th, 2026 4:00 pm
The UFC takes place in Abu Dhabi this weekend and is being headlined by former light heavyweight champion Magomed Ankalaev versus rising contender Bogdan Guskov.
The main card consists of five fights and will kick off at 2:45am AEST on Sunday morning.
See the full analysis of the UFC Abu Dhabi main card below:
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov (Main event)
Odds:Magomed Ankalaev - $1.16Bogdan Guskov - $5.30
Analysis:Despite losing the light heavyweight title in his previous fight, Magomed Ankalaev remains one of the most complete fighters in the division and enters this matchup with a significant edge in experience and overall skillset.
Ankalaev is an elite striker who blends speed, composure and technical precision better than almost anyone at 205 pounds. He is never reckless in pursuit of a finish, preferring to slowly break opponents down and win rounds through intelligent shot selection. If an opening for a knockout presents itself, he will take it, but his patience is one of his greatest strengths.
His record reflects just how difficult he is to beat. One loss came via a last-second submission against Paul Craig in his UFC debut, while the other was a flash knockout against Alex Pereira in their rematch after previously dominating much of their first fight. Outside of those moments, Ankalaev has consistently looked like one of the division's elite fighters.
Bogdan Guskov certainly has the power to make things interesting here. He is explosive, fast and capable of blitzing into range with heavy punches. However, that aggressive style comes with defensive risks. Guskov often fights with his hands low and leaves his head exposed when entering exchanges, something a sharp counter-striker like Ankalaev can capitalise on.
Guskov also has vulnerabilities in his grappling game and has shown he can be controlled on the ground, particularly when opponents take his back. While Ankalaev may not need to wrestle heavily here, having that option only widens the gap between the two fighters.
There is always danger when facing a power puncher like Guskov. He possesses the type of explosiveness that could produce an upset knockout. The problem is that he has never consistently faced opponents operating at Ankalaev's level.
Expect Guskov to have moments, but over the course of the fight Ankalaev's superior technique, defence and decision-making should take over and thrust him back into title contention.
Prediction:Magomed Ankalaev to win.
Follow Connor Scanlon HERE on Instagram for daily UFC news and updates!
Steve Erceg vs. Ramazan Temirov (Co-main)
Odds:Steve Erceg - $1.92Ramazan Temirov - $1.92
Analysis:This fight feels like a battle between early explosiveness and long-term sustainability.
Ramazonbek Temirov is one of the fastest starters in the division. He explodes forward with huge hooks and commits fully to every strike he throws. His aggression, speed and accuracy make him incredibly dangerous in the opening stages of a fight, particularly when he is the one moving forward and dictating the pace.
The issue for Temirov is that maintaining that style over three rounds is difficult. His volume often drops as fights progress, and opponents who survive the early storm tend to find more success later.
Steve Erceg is the exact type of fighter capable of capitalising on that. Erceg is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the division, possessing strong striking, excellent wrestling and elite fight IQ. Perhaps his greatest strength is his ability to make adjustments as fights unfold.
The biggest concern for Erceg is the opening round. Temirov will likely be the faster fighter and may have success landing clean shots while Erceg is establishing his rhythm. Given that Erceg has shown durability concerns at times, those early exchanges will be critical.
However, as the fight moves deeper, the advantages begin to shift heavily towards Erceg. His cardio, technical discipline and wrestling should start creating opportunities against a tiring Temirov. Clinch work, grappling exchanges and sustained pressure could wear Temirov down significantly.
Temirov may very well win the first round or even win by KO/TKO in the first, but if Erceg can avoid that KO punch, then Erceg's complete skillset should allow him to take control over the course of the fight.
Erceg’s grappling is also severely underrated as well, meaning he could very well find a submission finish at huge odds.
Prediction:Steve Erceg to win.
Islam Dulatov vs. Wellington Turman
Odds:Islam Dulatov - $1.10Wellington Turman - $7
Analysis:At first glance, this appears to be a showcase opportunity for the model, Islam Dulatov, but the matchup may be more competitive than many people expect.
Dulatov is a tall, rangy kickboxer with slick striking and excellent physical looks – hence why he is a hyped prospect. He fights comfortably at range and has the type of clean kickboxing that can quickly overwhelm opponents who struggle defensively. Given Wellington Turman's tendency to absorb jabs, Dulatov's striking could be a major factor throughout the fight.
However, the concern for Dulatov is experience and overall development. While his striking looks impressive, there are still clear areas of his game that appear raw and untested at the UFC level. He also has not faced an opponent as experienced or as well-rounded as Turman.
Turman does enter the bout on a three-fight losing streak and has not competed since 2023, naturally raising concerns. However, stylistically he has tools that could create problems. His wrestling, top control and submission game provide an obvious path to victory if he can drag Dulatov into grappling exchanges. Also, Turman’s offensive striking in his own right isn’t something to be ashamed of.
Turman can also attack Dulatov's legs with calf kicks, which may help slow down the younger fighter's movement and striking rhythm.
The biggest question is whether Turman can survive the striking exchanges long enough to implement that game plan, and his defensive issues on the feet leave him vulnerable to the exact weapons Dulatov likes to utilise.
Dulatov should hold the advantage in striking, but this fight feels closer than the betting market may suggest. If Turman can force grappling exchanges and extend the fight, he could make things very uncomfortable.
Still, Dulatov's striking advantages are likely enough to carry him through, but don’t be surprised if the biggest betting underdog on the card pulls off an upset.
Prediction:Islam Dulatov to win.
Magomed Zaynukov vs. Damian Rzepecki
Odds:Magomed Zaynukov - $1.32Damian Rzepecki - $3.40
Analysis:This is one of the most intriguing prospect fights on the card, with two undefeated fighters making their UFC debuts.
Magomed Zaynukov arrives with considerable hype behind him, largely due to his association with the Islam Makhachev and Khabib Nurmagomedov camp. However, the excitement is not based solely on his training environment. Zaynukov appears to possess a genuinely elite skillset.
His striking is exceptionally polished. He attacks all levels, mixing punches, body work, calf kicks and teeps with impressive accuracy and power. What makes him particularly dangerous is the pace he fights at. He throws in volume while maintaining technical discipline throughout the fight.
Although his grappling has not been tested extensively, the expectation is that fighters coming from Team Eagle possess strong wrestling and top control fundamentals.
Damian Rzepecki should not be overlooked though. He is also an undefeated prospect with clean boxing, dangerous calf kicks and excellent cardio. His striking is fundamentally sound and he tends to improve as fights progress.
The stylistic concern for Rzepecki is that he prefers moving forward and building momentum. Against Zaynukov, who also likes to pressure opponents and operates at a high volume, Rzepecki may struggle to establish his preferred rhythm.
Zaynukov's output, variety and potential wrestling advantage make him the more complete fighter entering the contest. Rzepecki is talented enough to have success in moments, but the overall matchup appears to favour the Dagestani prospect.
Expect Zaynukov to showcase why so many people are excited about his UFC arrival.
Prediction:Magomed Zaynukov to win.
Follow Connor Scanlon HERE on Instagram for daily UFC news and updates!
Rizvan Kuniev vs. Tyrell Fortune
Odds:Rizvan Kuniev - $1.29Tyrell Fortune - $3.66
Analysis:This heavyweight matchup likely comes down to whether Tyrell Fortune can maintain his movement and pace over three rounds.
Rizvan Kuniev is an extremely difficult fighter to wrestle. His takedown defence is excellent both in open space and against the cage, and he is very effective at controlling opponents in clinch situations against the cage. While his striking is not elite by heavyweight standards, it is more than serviceable and carries the natural power that every heavyweight possesses.
Kuniev's preferred approach is often patient and defensive. He tends to operate as a counter-striker rather than aggressively hunting finishes, although he has shown that forward advances can create knockout opportunities.
Fortune brings a different style to the matchup. He is a wrestler by trade but is surprisingly athletic and mobile for a heavyweight. Most of his striking success comes from exploding into range with quick blitzes before moving back to safety.
That movement could prove crucial here. If Fortune can continuously stay on the outside, dart into range and score points before exiting, he may be able to frustrate Kuniev and win large portions of the fight on volume.
The biggest challenge is that Fortune may struggle to utilise his wrestling due to Kuniev's takedown defence. That could force the fight into an extended striking battle where movement and cardio become increasingly important.
Fortune appears to have the edge over the first two rounds, but there is some danger late if his cardio begins to fade. A slowing Fortune could become vulnerable to Kuniev's pressure and power in the closing stages.
This is a super tight fight, and while matchup stylistically favours Fortune's mobility and point-scoring approach on the feet early, Kuniev could very well win via control time against the cage, as he did against Jailton Almeida, or even find a KO late.
Prediction:Tyrell Fortune to win.
$100 Staking Plan
$50 WIN @ $1.92 (returns $96)Steve Erceg to win
$40 MULTI @ $3 (returns $120)
Magomed Zaynukov to winSteve Erceg to winMagomed Ankalaev to win
Magomed Zaynukov to winSteve Erceg to winMagomed Ankalaev to win
$10 PROP @ $11 (returns $110)Steve Erceg to win by Submission
Scanlon's Special
The Scanlon's Special this week will be a five-leg multi @ $6.33!
Leg 1 - Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune to start Round 3Leg 2 - Magomed Zaynukov to winLeg 3 - Steve Erceg to winLeg 4 - Magomed Ankalaev to winLeg 5 - Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov to start Round 2
Extra plays
Wellington Turman to win (@ $7)Rizvan Kuniev to win by KO/TKO in Round 3 (@ $11.50)Tyrell Fortune to win by Points (@ $6)
Follow Connor Scanlon HERE on Instagram for daily UFC news and updates!
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