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Find your frequency hereFixture, injuries and timing: Can the Lions turn around their bad luck?
Louis Van Dam • August 14th, 2025 10:49 am
A top two spot beckoned for Brisbane last week... before they went down by two points at home to Sydney.
Now back in the pack in fifth position on 58 points, some worries are beginning to mount for the reigning premiers who are still to face Fremantle in the west and a red-hot Hawks outfit in Round 24.
While they'd be worried about losing their footing in the top four, missing the eight entirely is still not outside the realms of possibility, with a handful of 50-50 games elsewhere that could cost them significantly.
With that in mind, Nathan Buckley is genuinely worried about the dangerous position Chris Fagan's side find themselves in despite their best being good enough to beat anyone.
“Brisbane have put themselves in a really dangerous position,” said Buckley on SEN’s Whateley.
“They’ve (Brisbane) got scoring power galore, there’s a lot of skill in that midfield, they dominated clearance, they dominated field position, inside 50s didn’t connect well enough, which fuelled what Sydney were doing the other way.
“It’s a really interesting position for them to be in, their destiny is in their hands, and their best is good enough.”
In 2025 Brisbane are ranked second for inside 50s at 56.7 per game, second for total clearances at 40.7 and third for tackles inside forward 50 at 12, showcasing their ability and reliance on winning the ball and inflicting their damage in the forward half.
It's the back half that is now a worry for them.
“They’re not as strong structurally in the back third, they are vulnerable to any team that can get the ball there quickly,” Buckley added.
“But as Fages said, if they go forward 65 times and connect better and make the most of their forward play, it’s probably not going to matter.
“They’re probably not in a dissimilar situation to the Dogs, alright let’s just go full on offense and then just make the most of what our mids and our forwards look like, and kick 120 when the opposition can kick 100.”
Brisbane have also been handed the hardest draw for the year, although still having managed to obtain the best record against top-half teams with seven wins and five losses.
Those include wins against Geelong, the Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, Hawthorn and Collingwood, but they have the lowest percentage out of all the top 9 teams, mainly due to not capitalising against lower sides.
Former Lion Luke Hodge is now pondering whether that fixture luck is evading them right when they need it.
“When you’re backing up as they have for the last six or seven years, you need a lot of luck to go your way,” said Hodge on SEN’s Whateley.
“Their draw this year has been as hard as anyone, but when you start to lose some players, everyone has injuries this time of year, but when you look through at who they’ve lost – they looked really open as a defensive unit, really young – so you sort of sit here and hope they can get some of those guys back and get on the same run as they did last year.”
As well as their tough fixture, the Lions have suffered a cluster of injuries to key players at the wrong time, losing their Brownlow Medallist Lachie Neale and rebounding defender Keidean Coleman to quad injuries, Ryan Lester to concussion, Kai Lohmann with a calf issue, Jack Payne and Noah Answerth with season-ending knee and achilles injuries respectively and Conor McKenna to a hamstring injury.
Dependable backman Brandon Starcevich was also a late withdrawal with a hamstring last week.
While their backs are against the wall, there's no way Hodge is about to write them off having seen them win it all from fifth last year.
“The old ‘you’re walking on thin ice, so you might as well dance’, that mentality needs to come back, especially for whoever’s coming in for this senior side for the big trip over to Perth,” Hodge continued.
“You’ve got to come in and just play football, don’t worry about the consequences, be attacking – because it’s getting pretty shaky for them, if they lose this one (vs Fremantle), it could come down to round 24, Hawthorn vs Brisbane, for both of those sides to win to get into finals.
“Last week when they beat Collingwood, we sit there going ‘well they’ve locked in top 2’, and then all of a sudden they’ve got a few injuries, they drop one that they probably shouldn’t have to Sydney on the weekend, and then a few more injuries and the doors ajar.”
The Lions face arguably their biggest test for the year when they travel to Optus Stadium to face the in-form Dockers on Friday night.
It promises to be a beauty with both sides in a bid to lock in a finals spot and fighting for a top four opportunity.
