“Beatable”: Why Hunter is against Derby favourite Observer

SENTrack & RSN • October 31st, 2025 1:17 pm

Form analyst Mark Hunter is taking on Observer in the Victoria Derby.

The Flemington Carnival kicks off on Saturday with Derby Day and the 2500m Group 1 for the three-year-olds is one of the feature races.

After Observer won the Group 2 Vase (2040m) in arrogant fashion at Moonee Valley last Saturday, the Ciaron Maher-trained Godolphin colt has been posted as a $2.15 favourite with Sportsbet (and was shorter during the week).

But Hunter believes he is beatable and feels that two key Vase rivals - O'sheamus and Providence - are primed to flip that result.

“I might be in the minority here but I think this favourite is beatable - Observer,” Hunter said on SENTrack & RSN’s Giddy Up.

“I’m going to tip two Sydney horses out of the Moonee Valley race (which Observer won).

“O’sheamus is building up beautifully for 2500m. He ran down Crusader Voyage strongly at the mile (at Warwick Farm). Went to the Vase and was ridden quietly. Observer just let fly at the 400m and put paid to them.

“O’sheamus and Providence were held up back behind slow horses, couldn’t get clear and the race was off and gone. I thought O’sheamus worked to the line beautifully.

“From the barrier (5) here for Kerrin McEvoy, if he can park somewhere between fifth and seventh, get a nice drag into the straight, I think the trip will really suit O’sheamus.

“I think he is the best value chance of the day. I also like Providence.

“I’m not sure there’s that much left in the tank with Observer. I’m not sure about 2500m.

“He will get a great run from the draw for Mark Zahra and Ciaron Maher - there’s plenty going for him - he may well win but I just want to see him tick all the boxes.

“Observer is the most brilliant horse in the race at a mile to 2000m for sure.

“But I think it’s a really open Derby. There’s not much between a stack of horses.”

Hunter's selections: 9-6-1-16

Yes or No - Derby

Hunter also gave his Yes or No chances for the Derby.

1 - OBSERVER: “Yes.”

2 - HIGHVOL: “The barrier (15) has put paid to it. No.”

3 - AUTUMN MYSTERY: “Yes.”

4 - MIEWA: “Not convinced it will run the trip. No.”

5 - OPTIONS: “Yes.”

6 - PROVIDENCE: “Yes.”

7 - AZAZEL: “Yes.”

8 - ARCORA: “Yes.”

9 - O’SHEAMUS: “Yes.”

10 - AMAZAKE: “It’s in my squaddie so I better say yes.”

11 - ENGINE OF WAR: “Will go better with a quieter ride but no.”

12 - MATSUDA: “Nice horse but the barrier (19) makes it a no.”

13 - ONE STEP CLOSER: “No.”

14 - SAVISANTA: “Yes. Tucked away midfield and weaving.”

15 - MCWOODY: “Yes. Terrific run at Caulfield.will need everything to right but yes.”

16 - DEAL DONE FAST: “Yes.”

17e - ARABIAN PRINCE: “It can, yes.”

18e - FREDDIE BASSETT: “Blinkers on but no.”

19e - CRACK A DEEL: “Would have to improve too much.”

20e - SUPER PARADISE: “No.”

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