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Champion Data: “Bulletproof” Pies well placed for flag tilt
SEN • June 13th, 2025 3:30 pm
After such a strong start to the 2025 season, many are wondering whether Collingwood will suffer a similar fate to Sydney in 2024 who began brilliantly before coming back to the pack.
At Round 13, 2024, the Swans held an 11-1 record with a massive percentage of 148.80. At the same stage this year, the Magpies are 11-2 with a strong percentage of 134.0.
While the Swans were a statistically more dominant team in 2024 compared to what Collingwood has produced in 2025, Champion Data’s Daniel Hoyne isn’t expecting the Magpies to suffer the same fate as the Swans who lost six of their last 12 including the Grand Final to Brisbane by 60 points.
One reason is Collingwood’s Champion Data profile, which is as bulletproof as Hoyne has seen for a ladder leader at the midway point over the best part of two decades.
“No, it's different (to Sydney),” Hoyne told SEN Sportsday.
“This is why we do it at the halfway stage. If you run the exercise for 15 years and look at teams that have a percentage of 140 or 150 at that stage of the season, only once have they gone on to win a flag, because I think you can start to get picked apart.
“But they are as bulletproof as we've seen any team over the last 15-20 years at this stage of the season.”
The other main reason why Hoyne can’t see the Magpies dropping off significantly is because there’s plenty of improvement left in what Champion Data considers the club’s two best players – Nick Daicos and Dan Houston.
If Daicos and Houston can produce what they’ve done in recent campaigns on Champion Data’s rating system for the back half of 2025, then Hoyne can even see Collingwood improving.
“The reason why I think it's different (to Sydney) is because, to me, their two best players have not really fired a shot on a consistent basis, Houston and Daicos,” Hoyne said.
“I listened to the Collingwood players post-game against Melbourne and a couple of coaches, and I think they were a bit disappointed with what they did to help Nick out (after he was tagged by Ed Langdon).
“So, I think for them they've got an understanding that this is going to be coming for the next three months of the season. How do they then get to work?
“This guy's too good of a player to be 133rd in the comp. He’s 133rd in the comp, but they’ve got the best profile in the game.”
The Magpies don’t play this weekend as they take the week off with the bye before facing St Kilda at Marvel Stadium in Round 15.
