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Brownlow Live: Data crunch reveals top 5 prediction
SEN • September 22nd, 2025 11:33 am
- The Count starts at 8pm (AEST)
- Nick Daicos is favourite to win
- We will be live all day!
Champion Data’s top 5 Brownlow Medal prediction
Champion Data has revealed their top five Brownlow prediction ahead of Monday night’s count.
Their predicted vote system looks back on statistical categories that past winners have excelled in, as well as the individual player’s past voting history.
After crunching the numbers, analyst Daniel Hoyne revealed that Champion Data has Collingwood’s Nick Daicos taking home ‘Charlie’ after coming so close in the last two seasons, and by a fair margin.
“Our prediction looks back and has a look at what stacks up with previous winners,” Hoyne said on SEN Breakfast.
“Things like disposals, contested possessions, clearances and handballers as opposed to kickers usually get the job done. As well as if you’ve been in a winning team.
“Then also finally your own individual history. Are you a poller or are you not a poller?
“With that in mind, Noah Anderson comes in at five with 23 votes, Tom Green is on 23 votes as well, Jordan Dawson is on 24 votes, Matt Rowell on 26 and Nick Daicos on 34.
“There's a bit of a gap there.”
While the system is backing Daicos comfortably, Hoyne himself isn’t as certain given that Daicos doesn’t stack up in one key statistical category that each of the past 17 Brownlow medallists have dominated in – contested possessions.
“But I've got a saying which I've probably repeated too often over the last couple of years, I'll back history until history changes,” Hoyne said.
“The interesting part is that the last 17 Brownlow medallists have all ranked top six in contested possessions.
“With that in mind, the only contenders this year for that to play out again for an 18th season is Tom Green, Caleb Serong, and Matt Rowell.
“The other contenders don't fit into that category for this year. So, we've talked about this year being as the game changer, that it's all about ball use and transition and ball movement, as opposed to pure contest and clearance work.
“Whether or not the umpires jump on board that bandwagon this year, or if it takes them a little bit longer to recognize and appreciate that aspect of the game, we will see.”
Champion Data’s top 5 Brownlow prediction
- Nick Daicos – 34 votes
- Matt Rowell – 26
- Jordan Dawson – 24
- Tom Green – 23
- Noah Anderson – 23
Top six contested possession winners in 2025 (home and away)
- Tom Green - 339
- Caleb Serong - 325
- Matt Rowell - 319
- Max Gawn - 311
- George Hewett - 305
