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Who will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Finals Week 2
SEN • September 12th, 2025 12:22 pm
After an enormous first week of finals, let's hope Semi-Final weekend is equally as exciting.
Things begin on Friday when the Crows face the Hawks in a do-or-die clash.
Will Adelaide be out in straight sets? Or will the Hawks be sent packing in an Adelaide Oval semi for the second straight year?
Attention then turns to South East Queensland where the Lions host the Suns in the first September Q-Clash.
Gold Coast will be smelling blood with several big Brisbane names out injured... but beware the wounded Lion.
The winner of Crows v Hawks faces the Cats in a Preliminary Final, while the winner of Lions v Suns faces the Magpies in the other Prelim.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
Adelaide v Hawthorn
Friday - 7:40pm AEST - Adelaide Oval
The minor premiers hit a snag when losing their Qualifying Final at home to Collingwood last Thursday night.
The Crows were well below their best in their first finals outing since the 2017 Grand Final, going under by 24 points.
They dearly missed the X-factor of the suspended Izak Rankine.
The top team in the home and away season now get to host eighth-placed Hawthorn in a cut-throat semi-final at the Adelaide Oval. But the gap between first and eighth doesn’t seem as large as previous seasons.
Matthew Nicks and his Crows, who were evidently nervy last week, have plenty to prove and will be eager to avoid a straight sets exit.
Sam Mitchell’s Hawks pulled off a stirring Elimination Final win over GWS away from home last Saturday. It was their first interstate victory (Tassie home games aside) since beating the Swans in Sydney in Opening Round.
They had to fight back hard after GWS edged ahead early in the fourth term. Midfielder Jai Newcombe was immense, Blake Hardwick blanketed Giants star Toby Greene while Jack Gunston, Jack Ginnivan and Connor MacDonald booted three goals apiece.
Now the monumental task of taking on the Crows in Adelaide stands between them and a tantalising Preliminary Final clash with Geelong.
The Hawks have been in decent form against the Crows in recent years, winning three on the trot prior to their round 21 defeat by 14 points in Adelaide. They led that game at three-quarter time...
They were electric early against the Giants, leaping out to a first-half 42-point lead last week. The Crows on the other hand were at times error-prone against the Pies. But their best is very good which is what the Hawks need to avoid.
Will the Hawks have learnt plenty from last year’s narrow semi-final loss to Port Adelaide in the City of Churches? It’s a very similar situation although they are a much better side this year.
And the Crows have a lot more to lose. Tipping a slight upset.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 9 points.
Andrew Slevison
Brisbane v Gold Coast
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Gabba
Brisbane are the walking wounded heading into their Q-Clash Semi-Final against Gold Coast. While they’ve been considered the best team in it by many this year, can they progress deep into September with so many key soldiers out?
Their finals quest begun with a whimper against Geelong at the MCG last Friday in their 38-point Qualifying Final loss, and they’ll be desperate to find their attacking spark again at home.
Despite seemingly everything going against them, write this side off at your peril.
Looking at their opposition, Gold Coast will be brimming with confidence on the back of their maiden finals win last weekend in Perth. Their one-point victory was well deserved after leading at every break, and Damien Hardwick’s side will be thrilled to be playing in their home state this time around.
The question is simply whether they’re happy to be here having ticked off a finals win, or whether they’re hungry for more? If it’s the latter, they’re a real chance of causing an upset at the Gabba.
If all things were equal and both sides had full strength squads to pick from, most would expect Brisbane to teach their little brother Gold Coast a lesson… but that isn’t the case here.
If Gold Coast’s midfield and attack links well, they’re every chance of scoring well above 80.
Can Brisbane go with them with so many weapons out? If the likes of Cameron, Morris, Rayner and Bailey deliver, then they will.
This result may well rest on that quartet’s shoulders.
Prediction: Brisbane by 10 points.
Lachlan Geleit
