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Who will win and why? Tips and predictions for AFL Finals Week 1
SEN • September 4th, 2025 2:42 pm
Get excited, the first week of the 2025 AFL Finals series is here!
Things begin on Thursday in one of the most anticipated September matchups in recent history between the Crows and Pies at the Adelaide Oval.
Attention then turns to Cats v Lions at the MCG, with the winner there set to become outright flag favourites.
Saturday sees a pair of elimination finals with the Giants taking on the Hawks in Western Sydney and Freo hosting Gold Coast for their first final ever in Perth.
The loser of Crows v Pies will face the winner of Giants v Hawks in week two, while the loser of Cats v Lions will host the winner of Freo v Suns in a home semi-final.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
Adelaide v Collingwood
Thursday - 7:40pm AEST - Adelaide Oval
Claiming their first minor premiership since 2017 and their third in club history, Adelaide have returned to the pinnacle of the AFL.
Managing a club record 18 wins across 2025, the Crows were as consistent as any over the season, losing just three games since Round 6 and closing with nine wins on the trot to sew up top spot and an invaluable home final. Izak Rankine will miss with suspension, while Josh Rachele remains a week away with a long-term knee concern. Taylor Walker (300) and Alex Neal-Bullen (200) celebrate milestone games in the Crows’ first final since 2017.
A dicey end to the season saw the Pies cling on to a top four spot in what was a highly unexpected fall from grace.
Collingwood stood 10 points clear atop the AFL ladder at Round 17, however with numerous injury concerns to close out the year, the Pies won just two of their last seven games. A clutch win over Melbourne proved enough to sustain a double chance, however several absentees make September challenging.
Crucially, speedster Beau McCreery will remain in the side, however Jeremy Howe (groin) leaves a major hole in their defensive stocks, while Bobby Hill remains sidelined. Josh Daicos celebrates game 150.
An incredible way to kick off the 2025 finals series, with two of the top teams across the year playing off in a huge Thursday night Qualifier at Adelaide Oval.
The Crows enter with the upper hand, edging out the Pies at home in Round 23 in a defensive masterclass. The absence of Izak Rankine will definitely hurt the side, however Collingwood have several absences of their own, notably Jeremy Howe.
The veteran defender played a crucial role for the side this season, with Collingwood losing just once when Howe featured for the full four quarters, going 3-6 without him in defence. The Pies are capable, but the Crows have too much; they should hold on in a thriller.
Prediction: Adelaide by 14 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
Geelong v Brisbane
Friday - 7:40pm AEST - MCG
What a matchup we have here. Surely the winner becomes the immediate flag favourite.
Geelong enter the 2025 finals series in brilliant form having won six straight heading into September. The Cats are firing on all cylinders kicking triple figures in all of those wins while holding their opponents to an average of 65.5 points.
While Chris Scott’s side have easily accounted for who they’ve faced since mid-July, they’ve only played three finalists since the start of June, winning two of those games.
Looking at their opponents, Brisbane enter this year’s finals series as the side many think are the best in it.
While their quest to win back-to-back flags looked shaky on occasions throughout the year, the Lions clutched up late in the season to secure a top four stop, beating Collingwood (4th), Fremantle (6th) and Hawthorn (8th) in their last month of footy.
Having been smashed by the injury stick throughout the year, the Lions also bring back some important cavalry for another September push. Their biggest test yet comes here against the Cats at the MCG.
Do we have a repeat of the 2024 Preliminary Final on our hands? That was perhaps the game of last season as the Lions ran over the top of the Cats at the ‘G.
Geelong will hope that their improved midfield this season allows them to control the game more if they get ahead, while Brisbane know they can get the job done at the MCG now in big finals.
This is a toss of the coin, with the winner to book in a huge Prelim final where they'll be raging favourites to make it to the last Saturday of September.
Prediction: Geelong by 9 points.
Lachlan Geleit
GWS v Hawthorn
Saturday - 3:15pm AEST - ENGIE Stadium
Adam Kingsley has been sweating on the fitness of several key players ahead of the Giants’ do-or-die clash with Hawthorn.
Last year’s Coleman medallist Jesse Hogan is hoping his troublesome foot won’t keep him out, while off-season recruit Jake Stringer (hamstring), classy midfielder Jake Kelly (calf) and key defender Jack Buckley (calf) are all in the mix to play. Experienced midfielder Stephen Coniglio should return from concussion which is a major boost.
The Hawks seem more settled than their opponents from a personnel point of view. Josh Weddle is one who could be back in brown and gold after nursing a back injury. That will provide the Hawks with dynamic run from the back half.
Sam Mitchell’s side had been in decent form with nice wins over Collingwood and Melbourne, but most recently went down to the Lions in a hard-fought Gabba clash. They tasted finals last year – winning an elimination final – and that experience will only hold them in good stead for this test.
This cut-throat final in western Sydney promises to be a beauty. GWS holds a handy home ground advantage at a venue the Hawks have never won at. There are certainly reasons to tip the Hawks, but the fact they have not beaten the Giants at ENGIE Stadium is against them.
The Giants’ best is very, very good and if their forward line is replenished by the likes of Hogan, Stringer and Daniels, then they should get the job done in a thriller. But anything can happen in finals football…
Prediction: GWS by 6 points.
Andrew Slevison
Fremantle v Gold Coast
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Optus Stadium
Prediction:
Having won 10 of 13 at Optus this season, the Dockers would go into this full of confidence.
Justin Longmuir has seemingly gained a harder edge publicly, speaking out against doubters of his side. It seems to be working too with his boys winning four of their last five.
The pressure is largely on Freo, however, so they will have to ensure they are switched on against a free-spirited Suns side fired up after finally making it to September.
Damien Hardwick has proven the perfect coach to unlock this list that has harboured immense talent for some years now. Speaking of some years, David Swallow will play his 248th game and first final tonight.
His inclusion adds an additional touch of romance to an already immense day in Suns history. Three players combine for 21 games of finals experience, but Hardwick’s three premierships hold them in good stead.
In what will be the biggest crowd Gold Coast has ever played in front of, expect a fiery affair fuelled by typical finals adrenaline. The weather looms as a factor so expect a scrappy and contested clash if it hits.
Fremantle are rightful favourites at home, but something tells me Hardwick would prefer that.
The atmosphere will be off the charts at Optus, but if the real Gold Coast show up, they can definitely get the job done.
Prediction: Gold Coast by 5 points.
Ethan Clark
