Cornes and King's Bullseye: AFL win targets for 2026

With the 2026 AFL season now just over a week away, Fireball co-hosts David King and Kane Cornes got up early and did the work to calculate their 2026 “Bullseye” targets for each of the 18 clubs.

Adelaide Crows: 2025 H&A season: 18-5,139%

King: 15 wins, this will be bottom part of the eight for me. Injuries will be a concern for me early on. I don’t know if they have improved wnough, Callum Ah Chee is not a needle mover.

Cornes: They welcome in Callum Ah Chee as the biggest list change, 15 wins. They were healthy last year with a tough draw but they will be tough to beat and they will play a good brand of footy.

Geelong Cats: 2025 H&A season: 17-6, 141.5%

King: I’ve gone 17, they will have a sluggish start to the year. Jeremy Cameron’s early absence worries me. They have a tough start but the back half I think they will put together two long runs.

Cornes: No real changes, Worpel comes in, they lost some experience in Duncan and Guthrie. My bullseye, I have them slipping, it’s 14. It has to become difficult for them at some stage. Do they have the fire power through the midfield? They play a lot at home which will be in their favour but I don’t think they will be as powerful as they were last year.

King: 20 wins, I don’t think they have lost a lot. There’s not a lot on the outs but the ins are significant. I’m a believer in Oscar Allen and I understand those that aren’t. Everyone is chasing Brisbane; there’s no hiding that. Their system is only getting better through the stand rule. I don’t know how you stop them.

Cornes: Allen, Annable, Draper the big ins to their list, Big O retires and Ah Chee has gone to the Crows. I’m not as high, I have them at 17 wins. It’s tough to stay motivated when you have won two in a row, they will peak towards the backend.

King: 11 wins, sticky start to the year. St Kilda will come hard, they will tag Daicos. It will be on the fortunes of Nick. I think they have a couple of match ups early that will rattle the cage. 11 could be a lofty number.

Cornes: In comes not a whole lot. Out goes Cox, Hoskin-Elliott, Mitchell and Mihocek which is what they have to do to shake up this list. I think they will slip, I’ve got them at 11.

King: Is 12 a bit low? I’ve gone 13 wins. Injuries are a concern and I think they have a tough start. I’ve got them struggling early, they are banged up. They will get rolling after the first few.

Cornes: Not a whole lot comes in except Clayton Oliver and there’s a lot of injuries. I think it will be hard for them. They are well coached, but I’ve got them at 12

King: 18 wins, Cox I think is a smart selection, but he is not a needle mover necessarily. They have a suite of kids to step up. I don’t think they’ve been in a better position than they are right now.

Cornes: Cox is in, McVee will be handy, Fyfe has retired as has James Aish. I’ve got a big number, it’s 18. What’s their weakness? Where is it? Their ability to kick longer contests and play with speed off that is a weapon we started to see late. Midfield is stacked; they have depth in their ruck their back line is strong. They will be up there.

King: 17 wins, Petracca is the biggest needle mover across the competition this year. He is what you need to win big games. Who knows what they get out of Jamarra but that will be a bonus if he wins games. I like what they have built. It’s time now for them to stack consistent wins.

Cornes: Petracca, Ugle-Hagan and Zeke Uwland are in. They lost some experience but I don’t think it will affect them too much. 17 wins, there’s a resilience about them now, They have ruck depth, there a very good chance to win the flag.

King: 17 wins. Will Day is the only concern, they are set and ready to go. My query is, was this the year they’re meant to be there to win it and I think the Zach Merrett conversation will loom large in the second half of the year and they might be lacking one midfielder. They want for nothing really.

Cornes: Not a whole lot of change. Out goes some experience and Will Day is injured of course. They’re a very good side, I have their bullseye at 16 wins.

King: The big boys will get hold of them. I’ve got them on 16 wins. It will happen around the edges of the top four or five sides. Rounds 5-17 or 18 I’ve got them winning 10 in a row. See how they start. They have a sticky start. They look like a team hitting the line hard.

Cornes: They were hard done by to miss the eight and their first three weeks is hard. They lose some experience. I’ve got their bullseye at 17. They play 13 games at Marvel so there’s 11 and they don’t travel a whole lot. A powerful midfield and they have the two best players in the league. If you’re not winning 17, what are you doing? This list is too good not to be deep in September.