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Live sport on SN this weekend"Controversial": What is the Bombers' ceiling in 2026?
Jaiden Sciberras • January 18th, 2026 5:25 pm
How far can Essendon progress in 2026?
2025 was one to forget for the Bombers, slipping into the bottom four in what was a campaign riddled with injuries and debutants alike.
Winning just six games, the side debuted a record 15 players across the season, blooding a generation of talent looking to make the most of their timely opportunities.
And with a range of returning players, a handful of exciting draftees and the depth of AFL-ready youngsters, the Bombers should be in position to progress up the table.
But how far can they go? Led by newly-appointed captain Andy McGrath and with wantaway superstar Zach Merrett remaining at the club, Josh Jenkins analysed both the floor and the ceiling of what Essendon can produce in 2026.
Ceiling
“It might be a controversial ceiling, because they might break their finals drought by finishing in the play-in,” Jenkins told SEN’s The Run Home.
“That is their ceiling. They aren’t going north of the play-in. 8th, 9th, 10th.”
Floor
“Two of their better, or more influential six aren’t going to be there. One is Sam Draper, who has gone to Brisbane. Who is going to start in the ruck in Round 1 is baffling to me.
“Nic Martin is the other one. You’re starting behind the eight ball already, (but) they surely can’t cop an injury run like they had last year.
“I’m low on Essendon – I just can’t see enough needle-moving talent on that list. That’s my main problem. I can probably only see three, maybe four players who can really move the needle.
“One is Zach Merrett, and I’m hopeful and pretty confident that he will play great footy. Nic Martin, who won’t be there unfortunately. I think Zach Reid is a needle-moving key defender, provided his body stands up, and Nate Caddy.
“Maybe this squad will go as far as the midfield version of Andy McGrath can take them. The last three or four weeks, and the fact that he is captain, I would like to see him around the ball.
“I think he falls into that problem that the defensive group has, where they kick it around, get big numbers and play their role but they don’t necessarily help the team move forward.
“McGrath around the ball I like, we need to see regular footy with Jordan Ridley, and we need him to play with aggression, an intensity and a desire to move the ball quickly.
“Jye Caldwell, what’s his ceiling? I like what he brings to the table, but is there a little bit more under the hood? Is there more improvement for him?
“Sam Durham – we try not to get too caught up in stats, but I think Sam Durham’s improvement will be 22 (disposals) a game to 26 a game – can he get there? If he can, then he can certainly be an A-Grade midfielder. I don’t think he is an A-Grade midfielder yet, but they need him to be.
“Maybe, whether they finish ninth or 14th might be, in terms of these types of decisions – how do they go in the ruck? Who is playing there? Does Durham become an A-Grade midfielder? Those are the small things that Essendon are going to have to lean into next season.
“I can honestly see them only winning six games (floor). They’ve got a vulnerable defence aerially and on the ground, they’ve got a solid but not sensational midfield, they’ve got no ruckman, and where do the goals come from?
“I just don’t see the talent on the list.”
Listen to the full discussion below:
