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Liverpool vs Arsenal LIVE from 3amThe stat that will forecast the 2025 Brownlow Medal winner
Jaiden Sciberras • August 31st, 2025 3:30 pm
For over a decade, one specific stat has forecast the Brownlow Medal winner without fail.
Since 2008, the winner of the AFL’s most coveted individual award has featured within the top six of one major stat – contested possessions.
The inside bulls are consistently polling big numbers on Brownlow night, and given they frequently operate right under the umpires’ noses, it comes as no surprise.
In 2024, Patrick Cripps broke the all-time record, accumulating a ridiculous 45 Brownlow votes to take home his second Charlie and claim the best ever tally in the game’s history.
Looking into the numbers with contested possessions in mind, it starts to make sense.
Across the 2024 season, Blues captain Cripps was awarded three votes 12 times. In only three of those 12, Cripps did not lead the game for total contested possessions, and two of those three were Carlton wins.
In eight of those games, Cripps led the game for contested possessions in a Carlton win, while in one game, Cripps led the contested possessions in a loss.
Just once, Cripps was awarded three votes having lost the game and the contested possession count – a three-point loss to the Pies in which he managed 30 disposals, 15 contested, seven clearances and a goal.
History has proved time and time again that the stat carries significant weight on the night of all nights.
See the top six contested possession getters from 2024 and 2023:
2024
- P.Cripps – 360 – 45 votes
- T.Green – 323 – 27 votes
- M.Rowell – 322 – 25 votes
- N.Daicos – 319 – 38 votes
- M.Bontempelli – 318 – 19 votes
- C.Serong – 312 – 28 votes
Five of the top six polled 25 votes or more in 2024.
2023
- M.Bontempelli – 333 – 29 votes
- M.Rowell – 330 – 12 votes
- L.Neale – 319 - 31 votes
- C.Petracca – 319 – 26 votes
- C.Serong – 316 – 24 votes
- P.Cripps – 292 – 22 votes
In 2023, five of the top six polled 22 votes or more.
YEAR - PLAYER - CP RANK - TOTAL CPs
- 2024 –P.Cripps (1st – 360)
- 2023 – L.Neale (3rd – 319)
- 2022 - P.Cripps (4th - 322)
- 2021 - O.Wines (2nd - 354)
- 2020 - L.Neale (1st - 247)
- 2019 - N.Fyfe (3rd - 351)
- 2018 - T.Mitchell (2nd - 389)
- 2017 - D.Martin (2nd - 363)
- 2016 - P.Dangerfield (2nd - 388)
- 2015 - N.Fyfe (3rd - 356)
- 2014 - M.Priddis (3rd - 330)
- 2013 - G.Ablett (3rd - 313)
- 2012 - S.Mitchell (7th - 300) & T.Cotchin (19th - 273) + J.Watson (4th - 316)
- 2011 - D.Swan (6th - 307)
- 2010 - C.Judd (5th - 245)
- 2009 - G.Ablett (1st - 295)
- 2008 - A.Cooney (4th - 251)
The 2025 top six
Given the numbers, the 2025 top six contested possession winners may have a significantly heightened chance of claiming the Brownlow Medal.
The top six may read a little different to the current Brownlow Medal odds, via Sportsbet.
Could 2025 break the long-running streak?
- Tom Green - 339 ($51.00)
- Caleb Serong - 325 ($67.00)
- Matt Rowell - 319 ($8.00)
- Max Gawn - 311 ($151.00)
- George Hewett - 305 ($501.00)
- Patrick Cripps - 296 ($501.00)
- Noah Anderson - 293 ($7.00)
- Tom Liberatore - 285 ($501.00)
- Hugh McCluggage - 276 ($67.00)
- Tristan Xerri - 270 (INELIGIBLE)
Notable absentees (Brownlow odds)
- Ed Richards - 252 ($101.00)
- Nick Daicos - 243 ($3.00)
- Jordan Dawson - 225 ($6.00)
- Bailey Smith - 221 ($5.00)
- Marcus Bontempelli - 208 ($101.00)
- Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera - 173 ($41.00)
All odds via Sportsbet at the time of publishing
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