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125th US Open: Three to bet at Oakmont & DeepDiveGolf's Bookie Beater
David Bieleski • June 11th, 2025 1:53 pm
Photo: US Open
It was another successful week for DeepDiveGolf - we successfully tipped Foxy at 66/1, as heard on our weekly Wednesday 10am radio segment with Sport Nation Mornings and our Patreon page.
Originally in the field to compete at the US Open qualifying in Ontario, Foxy mysteriously withdrew for the event. I surmised that it was the act of a golfer with supreme confidence in his game.
He instead favoured rest and the chance to earn his way into the field by finishing at least in the Top 5 in Toronto, over competing in what is colloquially known as “the longest day in golf.”
The win at the Myrtle Beach Classic meant he no longer had to fight to survive. Instead, he could play with a new-found freedom knowing his playing privileges were secure.
Fox always prefers to play an aggressive game, his trademark long drives complemented by superb iron play when firing at pins. His improved results of late were driven by that approach play, with a recent visit from coach Marcus Wheelhouse a couple weeks before Myrtle Beach unlocking his swing and seeing him rank 12th, 36th, and 16th for Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP) in the three tournaments prior to his RBC Canadian Open victory.
To celebrate another huge winner at 66/1, we are currently offering 66% off the first month of our exclusive Premium memberships. Pop on over to the DeepDiveGolf Patreon for all the details and to sign-up.
Oakmont Country Club: A Sadistic Masterpiece
This week, the third major championship of the year is upon us and returns to a staple of the US Open rotation.
Oakmont Country Club in Pennsylvania will host the tournament for the 10th time making it the most regularly played course for this event. It most recently hosted the prestigious title in 2016 and 2007.
Established in 1903, Oakmont was the only course ever designed by Henry Fownes and supported by his son William. Fownes’ “one-hit wonder” would become one of the premier golfing tests in the world.
Fownes wanted to play the most difficult golf course imaginable and struggled to find a stern enough test to his liking in the area. Instead, he decided to build one. They purchased 191 acres of farmland in Oakmont, and the journey to create this devilish course began.
The ethos behind the course design is best summarised in this quote from Fownes:
“Let the clumsy, the spineless, the alibi artist stand aside! When you are selecting the Open champion of the United States the most prizing golf title in the world why not put the highest premium on the title? A shot poorly played should be a shot irrevocably lost.”
Over the years, they continued to develop the course, in almost a sadistic way.
Anytime a golfer did something well on the course and managed to find a way to beat the test, Fownes would react with a new bunker, or the fairway pinching in more to bring the impenetrable rough further into play.
Links golf provided the main inspiration - they visited the Scottish classics of North Berwick and the Old Course at St Andrews. It resulted in the absence of trees on the course, thick fescue, and expansive, undulating greens that roll a lightning quick 14.5 on the stimpmeter.
2006 US Open Champion, Geoff Ogilvy, noted the similarities to links golf at Oakmont: “It asks you to hit links-like shots. Where you have to land the ball requires imagination, you have to hit the ball 30-40ft away from the hole sometimes.”
Key Statistics This Week at Oakmont CC
Standing at nearly 7,400 yards for a par-70, it would be easy to assume that driving distance is the most productive path to success at Oakmont. Whilst I do think there is some truth to that argument, I don’t completely believe the path to success is that narrow.
That comes from the imposing Kentucky Bluegrass rough, already set at 5in and likely to become more penal as the week unfolds. Several shorter hitters have previously found a way to the top of the leaderboard at Oakmont. Most notably the short but accurate Jim Furyk, who finished runner-up here both in 2007 and 2016.
Of course, ideally, you would have both driving distance and driving accuracy here. However, that limits you to a mere half-dozen players.
Instead, I believe it is better to identify golfers who are elite at least one of these skillsets.
Having the distance off the tee often means you are also generating additional clubhead speed, helpful for escaping the gnarly rough you will inevitably find. Alternatively, the best fairway finders in the field can hopefully avoid that altogether.
One universal skill this week will be approach with long irons.
The course will demand a disproportionate number of shots over 200 yards this week. That includes both par 5s stretching over 600 yards and all the par-3s. The par-3 8th hole is likely to play longer than the par-4 17th on at least one day. Therefore, SG: APP 200+ yards is a key metric I am targeting this week.
Often, the final golfer standing at the end of the week has ranked in the top 10 for SG: Putting. That may be even more true at Oakmont. This golf course features greens averaging over 8,500sq ft and feared as some of the fastest that golfers will ever face.
Finally, I believe the SG: Around-the-Green can largely be discounted this week.
When the rough is as thick as it is here, the sole option when finding the rough is largely limited to simply trying to hack the ball out. This removes some of the skill and creativity around the greens. Further, the enormous greens mean the likely winner will have found a larger number of greens in regulation and been less reliant on this aspect of their game.
Three For Free: US Open Golf Betting Tips
One of the hottest golfers on the planet currently, Niemann is surprisingly found 8th in the betting market and more than double the odds of fellow LIV golfer Jon Rahm.
Whilst Rahm hasn’t won on the LIV Tour since September 2024, Niemann has won 4 of the last 7 events. That has come along with the absurdity of making 28 birdies and just one bogey in the final round en route to those victories.
Niemann is one of the few select golfers who possesses prodigious distance off the tee yet still retain their driving accuracy. He was always renowned as one of the best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour before departing, and that was particularly true for his long-irons.
This price is likely largely driven by his prior lack of performance in majors. Such expectations are only set because of the clear ability the golfer demonstrates.
The fact Niemann notched his first Top 10 at the more recent major, with Quail Hollow somewhat analogous to Oakmont, and has shown ability at Augusta National suggest there is value in the number on offer here.
Photo: LIV Golf
The recent struggles and coaching changes of Viktor Hovland of late have been well-documented, but I believe there remains reason for optimism. Earlier this year, he returned to Kiwi coach Grant Waite.
At his best, Hovland is more than capable of mixing it with the absolute best in the game.
He has finished in the Top 7 at a major championship in every year since 2022, with a 21st at The Masters and 28th in the PGA Championship this season hardly disgraceful. He also returned to the winner’s circle at the Valspar Championship, winning at a score of 11-under over Justin Thomas.
That has been a hallmark of Hovland’s wins, with many of his victories coming at a relatively high total. The difficulties around the green could well be mitigated at Oakmont this week, with his prowess off the tee and ranking 8th in this field for SG: APP 200+ yards key strengths.
The one golfer we placed a future bet on heading into this week’s US Open was Harris English. That was placed back in January after his win at Torrey Pines.
We managed to grab him at 150/1 for this event, although I believe there is still value to be found here despite him shortening substantially in the market.
Torrey Pines is a regular US Open host, having held the tournament in 2008 and 2021 - it provides another long and stern test, stretching over a whopping 7,800-yards for a par 72. That is often the type of course where English excels.
Complementing his win at Torrey Pines, English had already finished 2nd and 8th on the course previously.
He has also demonstrated his ability on stern tests in the US Open having finished 8th in 2023, 3rd in 2021, and 4th in 2020 at this event. The latter of those came at Winged Foot, a very suitable comparison to Oakmont which should play similarly.
English’s abilities on and around the green are what keep him in contention on these tough courses. So much in deciding the winner comes down to who can retain momentum, with a par often feeling like a birdie.
Despite being at just tour average for driving distance, he is highly accurate off the tee as well as being one of the strongest in the field both for SG: APP 150-200 yards and 200+ yards.
Along with the aforementioned Torrey Pines win earlier this year, English has followed that with strong performances in both major championships. He finished 12th in The Masters, his first Top 20 at Augusta National, and 2nd at the long Quail Hollow in the PGA Championship.
A strong contender to make the US Ryder Cup team (currently ranked 9th), a win this week will all but guarantee his presence in that squad.
All TAB odds are current at the time of publishing - R18, please gamble responsibly.
