Who wins & why? Tips & predictions for Round 16, 2026

While they haven’t quite looked like back-to-back premiers all season, you can never truly count out the Lions. After 12 games this year, Brisbane sat at an even 6-6, borderline uncompetitive in three straight losses against Geelong, GWS and Fremantle. However, with wins against Gold Coast and Richmond, the Lions found their touch once more as they head into the bye. Now, well rested and with a number of players on the verge of return, the Lions are primed to make a run at it late in the season. Finish in the six, and you simply cannot rule them out.Just two losses on the season and just one loss after Round 2, the Swans are – bar Fremantle – the most dangerous and in-form side in the AFL. With recruit Charlie Curnow finding his groove and the side humming under Dean Cox, last year’s 10th placed side has turned their misfortunes into a pure premiership charge. Things only get better for the rested Swans, as Errol Gulden finally returns from injury, having only featured twice this season. Tom McCartin also returns to reinforce their defence, while Dane Rampe returns via the VFL.

Prediction: Sydney by 14 points.

Sam Mitchell’s men return to the MCG three weeks to the day since their last home fixture and will do so without Josh Weddle (suspension) and Jarman Impey (hamstring). Toppling the Suns on the Gold Coast is more than enough of a confidence booster to head into this one despite the continued absence of Jack Gunston.

If the smalls fire again up forward and the Mitch Lewis/Mabior Chol duo can provide adequate support, that is still a very potent forward line. The Hawks are sitting pretty in third and would love to stay clear of the log jam below them with a win here.

Jesse Hogan returns to the sidelines with a fractured finger which opens then door for Max Gruzewski to take his place back in the senior side. The bye seemingly halted some nice momentum being built by the Giants and has allowed for their gameplan to be pulled apart by St Kilda and Carlton – two teams vying with them for a wildcard slot.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 19 points.

‘Fraseball’ continued to deliver with a fifth straight win last weekend. Josh Fraser’s Blues beat GWS by 23 points on the road to preserve the caretaker coach’s perfect 5-0 record since replacing Michael Voss. Carlton has scored 414 points (82.8 average) in that five-game spell while conceding only 336 points (67.2 average). They have a great opportunity to make it six on the spin when they host the Eagles who last won in Melbourne in 2023.

Andrew McQualter’s Eagles were agonisingly close to winning their last two games before the bye, only falling short by a combined seven points to Port Adelaide (six) and North Melbourne (one). Since the 101-point loss to St Kilda in round 7, the Eagles have been more than competitive. In those seven games they’ve won twice and been beaten by a combined 60 points (average losing margin of 12 points). It’s looking much more positive for the Eagles in

Prediction: Carlton by 26 points.

Expect Nick Daicos to have highlighted this as a real opportunity to stamp his Brownlow favouritism.

Prediction: Collingwood by 31 points.

Port will be without Esava Ratugolea after rupturing his patella tendon against the Pies. Jack Lukosius will also miss the Showdown for Port with a calf injury sustained against Collingwood after returning from a two-month spell on the sidelines. While Adelaide will enter this matchup with a relatively full-strength squad.

Prediction: Adelaide by 27 points.

The Kangaroos were less than convincing in their 25-point victory over Richmond last week but some inspired performances from the likes of Caleb Daniel (40 disposals), Luke Parker (30 disposals), Harry Sheezel (31 disposals) and super Cooper Trembath (4 goals), saw them get across the line.

Richmond was able to match the Roos in the contest with two more centre clearances and only two less clearances for the game. Can the Bombers midfield throw down the gauntlet this week with the likes of Zach Merrett, Will Setterfield and Sam Durham? Whilst he may not have had his kicking boots on just yet, Ben McKay is a strong presence down forward and has often taken the best opposition key defender, freeing up Nate Caddy. If Dean Solomon can get his forward line humming this week, they may just be in for a chance against a North Melbourne side that has not been renowned for its defence.

The Bombers will be buoyed by the return of Andrew McGrath and Jye Caldwell as well as potentially Isaac Kako and Darcy Parish who face a test before the clash. Tristan Xerri is a huge out for the Roos after sustaining an injury to the jaw.

Prediction: North Melbourne by 19 points.

There aren’t many sure things in life these days, but if one thing is for certain then Damien Hardwick and his coaching staff must have spent some time this week looking at how they can quell the influence of Luke Jackson.

Jackson was unstoppable in Fremantle’s 9-point victory with 28 disposals, 25 hitouts and 3 goals. The Cats had no answers to his influence and though Jackson has been mounting his case as the competition’s premier ruckman, he is now emerging as potentially the best player in the competition. Justin Longmuir essentially has an extra midfielder who also just happens to dominate in the ruck. Have we ever seen a hard tag on a ruckman? That could be one the options the Suns have but either way, Ned Moyle and Jarrod Witts will have their work cut out for them.

The Suns are in freefall having lost their last four matches in a row and desperately need a win. The last time Gold Coast played the Dockers in Perth, David Swallow scored the now famous behind that gave the Suns a 1-point victory and their first finals win. The loss of Daniel Rioli won’t help but Gold Coast showed in patched against the Hawks last week that they do have the DNA of a winning team, they just need to put it on the scoreboard.

Prediction: Fremantle by 22 points.