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The UPC Showdown Roughie Report for Flemington & Rosehill + an early look at the Melbourne Cup
The Leg Up • November 1st, 2024 9:53 pm
Racing at Flemington & Rosehill is the focus this weekend.
See below the Roughie Report thanks to The Leg Up and UPC Showdown.
Blake Johnston
Rosehill R8 #19 ASCOLI PICENO – You could make the argument that she should be unbeaten in six starts. She nearly fell at the furlong two back before picking herself up to find the line late when favourite in the race that Obamburumai finished third before winning this race last year. Dominant last start victory after covering extra ground, it was a soft win. She’s a smart mare that will be hard to hold out.
Flemington R7 #1 EL CASTELLO - El Castello brings the A-grade form from Sydney but cops the widest draw, he can overcome it with a positive ride. Loved the fight last start when the second horse loomed to beat him, but he pulled out plenty to win. Will do some early work but comes through a better form reference than all others and looks hard to beat.
Melbourne Cup - Early Look
1st: ONESMOOTHOPERATOR was outstanding in his Australian debut at Geelong. He covered extra ground with cover, chimed in at the right time and showed a terrific turn of foot to win. He beat INTERPRETATION there who finished sixth in last year’s Melbourne Cup. He’ll only be better suited with the extra trip and the in-form Melbourne Cup winning jockey Craig Williams will stick with him. Horses to do the Geelong Cup/Melbourne Cup double before him are Media Puzzle (2002), Americain (2010), and Dunaden (2011).
2nd: BUCKAROO matched motors with Via Sistina two back in the Turnbull Stakes and we all know how good that form is. He bounced to 2,400m in the Caulfield Cup and you could argue that he should have won, shuffled back before being held-up between the 800m and 400m. That was a fast race and he was strong at the end of it, I see no issue with the rise in trip. Has the class to win and Joao Moreira is likely to partner him.
3rd: KOVALICA is a Queensland Derby winner that’s arguably in career best form. Didn’t have the best of luck in the Epsom and then hit the line strongly with the tempo against in the Hill Stakes. I thought he was the best roughie in the Cox Plate and he ran well in a very high rating race. He gets the blinkers on for the Melbourne Cup and Damian Lane takes over. Has the class to win and the stable seem to think he’ll stay the trip.
Nick Lloyd
Rosehill Race 8 #6 ENCAP - He’s ticking along nicely this prep and loves racing at Rosehill, with two wins and three minors from eight goes at the track. He was a good winner of the Theo Marks two starts ago, and was then very good when fourth in the $1.5M Alan Brown Stakes three weeks ago. He’ll get a soft run from barrier one and can blouse them late.
Flemington Race 7 #8 KING OF THUNDER - He looks a horse crying out for 2500m on a big track, and he gets that here from the inside draw. They flopped him out the back last week in the Vase, he made a long run, wobbled on the bend and then knuckled down to just miss. On Saturday, he can settle closer from the good gate, build into the race under James McDonald and outstay his rivals here.
Melbourne Cup - Early Look
1st: KOVALICA - There’s a sense of timing about this bloke this year, and I am all for it. Admittedly, it’s 12 months later than I expected, given his Queensland Derby romp 18 months ago, but they set him for the Golden Eagle last year and chased the prizemoney, so I can’t blame them. While he is a long time between wins, he’s been racing very well in some of our better races, including the Queen Elizabeth and Cox Plate. He will relish 3200m, he’s rock-hard fit and gets a world-class rider in Damian Lane in the saddle.
2nd: SEA KING - I loved the way he won the Bendigo Cup on Wednesday, and given he beat home Onesmoothoperator in the Ebor Hcp two back, there’s no reason to suggest the tables can be turned in my view. He made a long, sustained run at Bendigo and trounced his rivals, booking his spot in the Cup. He should take plenty of benefit out of that win, and Harry Eustace’s horses are airborne Down Under, with Docklands running well in the Cox Plate too. He’s an absolute specimen to look at, and he can back up those looks.
3rd: ATHABASCAN - I’m not trying to get on the OTI Racing Christmas card list, but this bloke is clearly the best roughie in the race. He ran second in the Sydney Cup in the autumn as a $6 chance and is arguably going better this time around, coming off a tough win in the St Leger at Randwick two weeks ago. He’s going to run the 3200m on his ear, something that I don’t think can be said about a lot of the opposition, and he gets the services of Zac Lloyd, arguably the best young jockey in the country. He goes in everything for me.
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